Atlanta Braves Must Decide Now: Bonifacio or Francoeur
Braves Face Noon Deadline on Francoeur Roster Decision, Else Owe Him a Bonus
If an Article XX-B MLB free-agent signs a minor league contract at least ten days prior to MLB Opening Day, and then is either not released by 12 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day prior to MLB Opening Day or added to an MLB Active List (25-man roster) or MLB Disabled List by 3 PM (Eastern) on MLB Opening Day, the player automatically receives a $100,000 retention bonus, and the player can unilaterally opt-out of the minor league contract on June 1st if he has not been added to an MLB Active List (25-man roster) or an MLB Disabled List by that date. (source)
For the 2016 Braves, Jeff Francoeur is “that guy”.
After the release of Nick Swisher, there are still big roster choices to make for the position/bench players, and much of that comes to a head today – that 5th day prior to MLB Opening Day (technically Sunday, April 3rd).
Part of the decision involves Frenchy. Part of the decision involves the bullpen and how many pitchers will be carried. Part of it is also about Emilio Bonifacio. Part of it is about math.
Normally, Fredi Gonzalez likes to start the season by taking 13 pitchers North with him – 5 rotation pitchers and 8 relievers. The extra reliever is helpful while the starters finish stretching out to their 6-or-7 inning standard routine.
If so, that leaves just 12 position players available for the 25-man roster.
This year could be a bit unique: the Braves have off-days scattered around the first week of April and won’t need a 5th starter until April 14 (the 9th game of the year). That could allow them to use 8 relievers and 4 starters until then…if they can find 8 suitable relievers, that is. Assuming so, on April 14th, reliever #8 goes to Gwinnett and the 5th starter is promoted.
That would permit the team to keep 13 position players… 8 ‘regulars’, the second catcher (Tyler Flowers), and four bench bats. Today’s decision does not necessarily cement that call, but it could be an indicator.
Right now, those bench bat candidates are: Kelly Johnson, Gordon Beckham, Michael Bourn, Emilio Bonifacio, and the aforementioned Jeff Francoeur. 5 names and up to 4 slots to fill.
The Choice
Bonifacio’s stock in trade has been his speed and versatility, as he can man virtually any position other than catcher. However, his wheels are running more slowly (down from 26 steals in 2014 to 1 in 2015) and his defensive skills are also lagging (from game reports). Additionally, he hit only .167 as a member of the White Sox in 2015.
Francoeur, however, is finally showing the hitting ability that made him a top draft pick in 2002. His numbers, in fact, are going up (somewhat). He even hit 14 HR with the Padres AAA team in 2014 and 13 as a Philly in just 343 PA’s in 2015… while hitting .258.
This Spring, both players have been hitting well (.271 for Boni; .327 for Francoeur), though Frenchy has the edge with an .838 OPS and fewer than half the strikeouts in nearly identical ABs.
The Braves moved Jeff around the field a bit as well, to find out about his own versatility. He seems to have passed that test as well.
$100,000 is riding on the decision, though Atlanta probably won’t sweat that call too much, having spent $900,000 to get Tyler Moore over the weekend – a player who will be the “Break glass in case of emergency” backup for Freddie Freeman.
Of Note: The Braves could choose to hand a check to Francoeur and put him in the minors – he is on a minor league deal and not yet on the 40-man roster. He could opt out of that deal in June (unless another arrangement had been agreed upon). As an example, Alex Torres is now destined for the minors, and will receive a $100K check for his trouble.
Next: Bring in the Next Lefty!
We should know in 2 hours or less.