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Four Predictions about Atlanta Braves Pressing Issues

By Alan Carpenter

Apr 10, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Erick Aybar (1) chases after a deflected ground ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Erick Aybar (1) chases after a deflected ground ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 12, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Hector Olivera (28) bats during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Hector Olivera (28) bats during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

A series of four predictions about issues facing the Atlanta Braves in the coming months

1.  Hector Olivera

There is still little-to-no additional information leaking out from any source about the situation with Hector Olivera’s arrest last week.  Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that his ‘Administrative Leave’ status was extended by two weeks (to May 3rd).

If you’re looking for the Braves to either dump Olivera or trade him, I expect that neither will be easily managed.  At the moment, his trade value is effectively nil.  His contract requires payments through 2020 for $28.5 million after this season.  While Atlanta already dumped the ‘dead money’ of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher ($29 million), those represented payments for the current season alone.  Cutting Olivera means paying him for 4 future seasons – a substantial unplanned budgetary expense.

By the letter of the Collective Bargaining Agreement’s law, the Braves could opt to press for termination of the contract, but there are actually precious few examples of that being done successfully.  If the charges are eventually dropped, as I expect, then the Braves would have no more grounds to request contract termination than for a player suspended for steroid use, for example.

About those charges (some speculation is required here):  thus far, all we know involves ‘visible bruising’ to the victim.  We have no allegations about sexual misconduct or anything to suggest a case where the woman was being detained against her will.  Either one would be a game-changer.  We have a report that alcohol was involved.  We do know that she immediately wanted to call for the authorities upon reaching the hotel lobby.  Thus this sounds like a case of grabbing or striking.  I do not excuse that, certainly, but from a legal point of view, it does limit the extent of the incident – hence the simple assault and battery charge.

Predictions:  Most likely, the charges he faces will never get to trial.  A settlement will probably be reached and he’ll be freed of further legal entanglements.  However, the Commissioner’s Office will then hit Olivera with a 60-day suspension.  That kind of penalty might put him in line to rejoin the club after the All-Star break.

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