Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: The Value of a Draft Pick

The Braves have put a ton of resources into securing additional draft picks: how these moves pay off will be closely watched

We’ve known for some time now that the Atlanta Braves have been in hot pursuit of additional draft picks to bolster their options for June 9. Last night, that pursuit became reality as an expensive transaction was completed with Baltimore… a transaction effectively predicted here a month ago.

The Braves have made a habit of going to great lengths for the purpose of adding draft picks and spending flexibility – and don’t believe that this transaction ends that effort, either.

Others are active, too: last night, the Cincinnati Reds picked up two international bonus slots from Baltimore in a trade that sent minor league RHP Franderlyn Romero (ironically himself an International signee in 2010) to the Orioles. If you’re curious about why the Braves didn’t get those international slots instead, it’s because they are for the 2015-16 signing season: the Braves would be looking for slots for 2016-17 (that season begins on July 2nd).

A Quick and Incomplete History

It seems that teams are willing to part with increasing levels of talent to acquire these draft picks and international signing slots. Atlanta has clearly been the most aggressive team in the majors in this regard, but haven’t been the only players:

More from Tomahawk Take

July 2, 2015. Atlanta trades RHP Garrett Fulenchek to the Rays for $494K in International bonus spending allowance (the right to spend that much on an international free agent). Fulenchek was drafted #66 overall just a year before and was (at the time) a Top 20 Braves prospect.
July 2, 2015. The Rays themselves sent RHP Enderson Franco to the Marlins to acquire $500K of international spending rights. Franco was not ranked in the Rays’ system.
July 2, 2015. The Rangers picked up 2 international bonus slots from the Angels, valued at $879,500, in exchange for minor league RHP Jason Hoppe, a former 27th round pick (not ranked in the Texas’ system).
July 2, 2015. The Braves traded RHP Caleb Dirks and OF Jordan Paroubeck to the Dodgers for their third-tier international slot (#87 overall, valued at $249,000).
July 3, 2015. The Braves traded RHP Cody Martin to the A’s for a second-level international spending slot (#53).
July 5, 2015. The Phillies sent RHP Chris Oliver and LHP Josh Taylor to the DBacks to get the #9 overall international signing slot, valued at $1.35 million.
July 6, 2015. The Braves traded reliever Aaron Kurcz to the A’s for another of their slots – the 113th overall, worth $167,000.
July 30, 2015. In the most bizarre deal, the Dodgers, Marlins, and Braves got together on a whacky arrangement that required Atlanta to eat $8 million (Bronson Arroyo), send Jose Peraza, Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan, Arroyo, and Alex Wood to LA while receiving Paco Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, Hector Olivera, and Miami’s #35 overall draft pick… along with the rights to spend the money assigned to that slot.

This isn’t a complete list, and it doesn’t even include alternate deals such as the one with Arizona in June 2015 to acquire Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint from the DBacks for Phil Gosselin.

Last year, the Braves turned their extra International spending rights into Derian Cruz and Christian Pache (along with others). Their ‘extra’ draft pick acquisitions turned into Austin Riley and A.J. Minter.

What is a Draftee/Signee Worth?

Every survey I see suggests that even high draftees “bust” about 50% of the time on average. Yet last night, the Braves opted to spend $3 million (Matusz’ salary) for the right to spend another $900K and draft an additional player in two weeks.

To a great extent, it’s easier to understand the pursuit of International bonus money spending rights: if you have a player on the hook to be signed, then you (a) typically know well in advance how much money you’ll need to spend on him; and (b) whether the kid scouts to a level commensurate with the money you are willing to part with.

In the International market, the top 30-ish players all grade out to the level of 1st Round picks in the regular draft. Thus the aggressive team can effectively get 2/3/4 or more “additional” first rounders every year… and much more cheaply than those in the North American Rule 4 Draft.

Ben Chase had a very interesting bit that discussed the power of bonus money in first round drafting strategies yesterday on a page the introduced his 3rd Mock Draft. That is effectively what the Braves did in this trade with Baltimore: they increased the power of their leverage.

Will this impact the Braves’ first draft pick (#3 overall)? Possibly, though I believe this ‘Matusz deal’ is more targeted to help with the 40th and 44th picks… not even so much the new 76th pick that they just acquired.

Future Moves?

Last year, the Mets and Braves got together on a trade that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to New York for John Gant and Rob Whalen.

Lucas Duda just got hurt for the Metropolitans, and he will be out indefinitely. I would not at all be surprised if John Coppolella is melting their phone lines right now in an effort to acquire one or more of their International bonus slots in exchange for Kelly Johnson.

You’ve probably heard that the Royals and Phillies are looking at Nick Markakis. Perhaps so, but neither team has tradable draft picks available – and Philadelphia wants to use their international slots. The Royals do have international bonus slots to trade, though, but they’d also want Atlanta to eat a chunk of Nick’s salary. Keep an eye on that.

You see above that many of the transactions involved took place on or around the July 2nd date that marks the start of the International market. You can expect that to continue this Summer… on the same weekend.

Next: We Can Manage...Maybe Too Well

The draft is about risk and reward. The Braves are spending millions of dollars – not much to reduce that risk, but to flood their system with extra players to overcome it.

Time will tell if these efforts – and the dollars spent on them – are successful.

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