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Where Do These Pitchers Fit on Atlanta Braves Prospect Lists?

By Alan Carpenter

Aug 15, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; American team Carter Kieboom (22) is greeted by Joey Wentz (17) after scoring a run against the National team during the first inning in the Under Armour All America Baseball game at Wrigley field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 15, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; American team Carter Kieboom (22) is greeted by Joey Wentz (17) after scoring a run against the National team during the first inning in the Under Armour All America Baseball game at Wrigley field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Braves believe they drafted 3 first round talents last night – how do they stack up against those already in the system?

The Atlanta Braves have added three more impressive arms to the system – assuming that they all sign with the club.  While I personally have concerns that there was no premium offense added with these picks, I’ll set aside that issue for today.  The question at hand, then, is this:  how much of an upgrade occurred with these picks?

Finding a point of comparison is difficult.  The most consistent point of reference we have available at this time comes from the MLB.com’s Pipeline site, which grades every prospect and every draft prospect.  Ben Chase’s work here for Braves’ prospects is exemplary, but they’ve seen all 200 draft prospects in addition to those on the Braves, so for right now I’ll use their data.

You can find their Top 200 2016 draft prospects chart here.  You can find their Braves’ Top 30 prospects list here.

With that as a backdrop, here are their grades for the new draftees and the pitchers that Atlanta already has in the system:

[table id=43 /]

Stacking Them Up

I do have some issues with the MLB Top 30 rankings and the grades provided in some specific cases, though these were published in the off-season and do not reflect current stats/progress.

For example:

  • Chris Ellis is having something of a break-out season at AA Mississippi, and should be ranked above both Jenkins and Banuelos at this point.
  • Mike Soroka has also been pitching extremely well; I believe I’d place him above Lucas Sims.
  • Sims’ Control grade is overdone; Ellis’ is underdone.
  • As Jenkins has been moved to a bullpen role, this argues for a rank reduction.

All that said, these grades would argue for a re-ranking akin to this (again, pitchers only at this point):

  • Newcomb
  • Blair
  • Allard
  • Wentz (I give the nod to Wentz over Anderson for being a lefty)
  • Anderson
  • Fried
  • Toussaint
  • Muller
  • Ellis
  • Soroka
  • Jenkins
  • Banuelos
  • Sims
  • Sanchez

Position players muddy the waters only slightly, as there are just 2 of primary consequence:  Dansby Swanson (#1 overall) and Ozzie Albies (#3).  I agree with those MLB rankings with Newcomb sandwiched in between.

The next position players on the MLB Pipeline chart are Rio Ruiz and Braxton Davidson (#12 and #13 respectively) – I believe both are ranked too high.  Mallex Smith, for example, is shown at #17.  He’s clearly better than that, though will “graduate” off their next list regardless.

The next position players – Lucas Herbert, Dustin Peterson, and Austin Riley – would probably compete with Banuelos, Sims, and Sanchez for prospect ranking positions.  I would also mix in the fourth pick last night – Brett Cumberland – here as well.  That pretty well sets up a new Top Ten like this:

My Braves Top 12 Prospects – post draft

This represents my opinion alone, but when signed, here’s how I’d stack them up, post-draft:

You could probably throw an oven mitt toward Wentz and also hit both Anderson and Fried – that’s how close a call I think those three are right now.  Ditto for the next trio.

This entire group represents a load of significant talent, and it will be very interesting to see how the Braves opt to use some of these in the process of obtaining some actual offense in the near future.

Next: Relive the Agony, the Ecstasy, the bad Puns... here

For the record, Kyle Lewis would probably have graded out to a point where I might have slotted him 5th – just ahead of Allard.

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