Cabrera for Closer
By Colby Wilson
What’s a rocket-armed 22-year old gotta do to pull ahead of Jim Johnson in this race?
A whole 10 innings into his big-league career, and I’m ready to hand Mauricio Cabrera the closer’s job for the rest of the year, and maybe for the rest of his life.
I know Arodys Vizcaino is hurt and will probably slot back into the job once he returns. I argue that Vizcaino is good, not quite great. Cabrera is green, but could be transcendent. Brian Snitker can posit that Vizcaino is a long-term factor in the back-end of the bullpen all he wants; let’s at least see what Cabrera can do.
A couple of things work against Cabrera. For one, he’s got eight total saves in his professional career—dating back to 2011 as a 17-year old in Dominican summer ball. He’s only been a reliever on a full-time basis for a couple of years, and his walk rate (a tick below 5.0 BB/9 for his career, including a ghastly 6.5 across High-A and Double-A last year) can be worrisome. He hasn’t quite been in the majors a month yet. He’s 22 years old and never threw a pitch in Triple-A.
Okay, so maybe there are more than a couple of roadblocks in front of the ‘Cabrera for closer’ train.
But the heart wants what it wants. And it wants 104 mph heat from the rocket-armed Dominican.
When he’s on, he’s electric. The triple-digit fastball is great, obviously, but complementing it with a hard-biting curveball (you say slider, I see 12-6, we can argue semantics all you want) is almost unfair. Over 1.2 innings Tuesday night against the Reds, he was locating the heat and the bender effortlessly—Adam Duvall went down looking and Zack Cozart swinging on pitches they never stood a chance at touching.
Look at this thing from Monday:
Even when he misses, I’ll bet this is terrifying.
When on, Cabrera is proving to be virtually unhittable.
When he’s not on, at least he’s not Jim Johnson. The same Jim Johnson who blew the save against the Reds Tuesday night—his second in three opportunities this month. Also, the same one who hasn’t been able to keep his ERA under 4.00 since 2013. And the same one who has become increasingly reliant on his curveball (up to 22.5 percent this year, over his career average of 15.2 percent according to BrooksBaseball.net)—a pitch that is getting crushed pretty hard (36.4 percent line drive rate in 2016) and is going to start falling soon (.273 BABIP in 2016, down from a career .295).
Selfishly, I don’t want Jim Johnson to keep pitching when it matters. For one, he’s not very reliable—I think we covered that. For another, with Vizcaino hurt and the Braves very obvious sellers at the trade deadline, Johnson is one of Atlanta’s few trade chips that could yield a legitimate prospect of some kind—maybe this year’s version of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe for Rob Whalen and John Gant, but a serviceable arm (more than likely).
But not if he keeps putting guys on, giving up runs and generally not being particularly good.
I’m not here to bury Jim Johnson—or praise him, for that matter—but to talk about Mauricio Cabrera. At 22 years old, Francisco Rodriguez was an All-Star, Huston Street was the A’s full-time closer and Aroldis Chapman made his terrifying big-league debut. It’s not unheard of for a young guy to take over, especially one who can bring the thunder like Cabrera. Giving him reps now, even if he ultimately doesn’t stick as the closer, will be beneficial in 2019 when the Braves are (maybe?) good again and he needs to execute in a tight spot.
In a lost season, grooming the next guy is important. Mike Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler get to make some mistakes now so they can be better in the future—a learning curve that has to be encouraging lately, given the success Folty has put forth over the last month or so. Mallex Smith, pre-injury, was showing the potential of one of baseball’s premiere speed guys. Even Chase d’Arnaud—unlikely though he is to be a long-term fixture—deserves a reasonable shot to see what he can provide as a younger, cheaper utility player than, say, Gordon Beckham.
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Mauricio Cabrera may not be the next great homegrown Atlanta closer. But if, similar to Whose Line is it Anyway?, the results don’t matter in 2016, he should get the chance to sink or swim—especially if the only obstacle in his way at the moment is Jim Johnson.