Atlanta Braves and Dustin Peterson… Where to go from here?

It’s a funny thing about break-out seasons…  they tend to make scouts and front office management itch, because it’s hard to know what to make of the sudden production.

When the Braves acquired Dustin Peterson from the San Diego Padres as part of the Justin Upton trade of 2014, he was kind of an overlooked part of the deal – given that Mallex Smith, Max Fried, and and international bonus slot were also included.

I even had someone suggest to me that Peterson wasn’t very interesting since he wasn’t even the best player in his own house.

At the time, that was actually true, since big brother D.J. Peterson had been taken by the Mariners in the same draft.  In addition, you look at the scouting scores on fangraphs and there’s a lot of “meh” there… Future values of 40-45 abound.  That tends to scream “fringy fourth outfielder”.

Some of those numbers might be worth updating.

In a recent conversation with Braves scouting director Brian Bridges, I asked about Peterson, noting that in the 2 games I’d seen him play in, I didn’t get the vibe that he’d be anything special.  Some groundouts, a single or two, but didn’t drive the ball.

“Welcome to my world!” was the response.

Indeed, it seems that every game of his I don’t see this year produces something good for the younger Peterson.  I got caught in the scout’s trap:  that’s exactly why Bridges and others watch game after game after game to get a total feel of each player under scrutiny… not just the odd look-in here and there.  These scouts truly are the unsung heroes of the organization, for they are on the road 10+ months out of each year.

Development in Progress

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In 2014 and 2015, Peterson had 2 full-season leagues with the Padres (A level) and the Braves (High A, with a bus crash thrown in for good measure).  He hit .233 and .251.

But now in 2016 with the AA M-Braves, he’s suddenly jumped to .296, with an OBP of .353 as well.

But wait, there’s more.

When I look at pitching numbers in the minor leagues, I’m looking first at strikeouts and walks, then ERA.  But it’s mostly the K/BB ratio, for that tells us quickly if the kid can command his pitches.  When that happens, good things follow.

For hitters, Bridges told me to watch for the doubles, noting that power is the last thing to develop.  But doubles are his “futures” indicator that it’s coming.

Check these figures:

• 36% / 22% / 35%
• 30% / 34% / 40%
• —- / 41% / 46%

These are the percentages of extra-base hits compared to all hits from 2014-2016 for Dustin Peterson, Braxton Davidson, and Austin Riley.  Note with one exception (Peterson with the Padres in 2014), the numbers are increasing.  That’s more doubles, more triples, more homers.

If you’ve been reading Ben’s scouting reports of these guys (most recent ones here: Peterson / Davidson / Riley), you’ve seen the ups-and-downs that these guys have experienced… and yet now all three are accelerating to the finish line of this season – and each is showing increased power along the way.

One key factor for all three of these players:  their ages.  Dustin won’t be 22 until September.  Braxton is barely 20.  Austin just turned 19 last April.

So now this has happened:

That’s pretty stout.  And it leads to a question that we’ll look at in a moment.

Next: What's that Question?