Should the Atlanta Braves Look Beyond Adonis Garcia?

The Braves’ third baseman has made an interesting transition this season… developing into something of a defensive asset. If he can keep that going, he might force an interesting decision at year’s end.

You’ve probably noticed that Adonis Garcia has been playing better of late. You might also have looked at his seasonal stat lines and concluded that you’re just imagining things. Which viewpoint is correct?

The third base position has traditionally supposed to have been the place where one of the “hitters” in you lineup plays. Indeed, the Braves have a fair history of such thumpers occupying the hot corner: Eddie Mathews, Chipper Jones, Bob Horner, Darrell Evans come to mind immediately. Others like Martin Prado or Terry Pendleton were certainly ‘hitters’, though not necessarily with the home run potential of some.

Since Jones’ departure, though, that spot on the field has been a source of frustration for the Atlanta Braves.

During the past 4 seasons, fifteen players have taken a turn there. The total fWAR for all of them adds to 6.7… and that’s with Chris Johnson leading the pack at 2.4, thanks to one year in which he nearly won a batting title.

Adonis Garcia? 1.1… still good enough for third best among the 15 post-Chipper era third basemen.

Break Out or Streaky?

He’s hitting .271 for the season (OPS .720)… despite a bad start and demotion.
Once July started, he got crazy-hot: .337 in July; .316 so far in August.
8 of his 9 homers have happened since June… and 30 of 38 RBI.
In the last 30 days, his fWAR (0.9) is tied for 5th best among all third basemen in the majors. This beats guys like Nolan Arenado (0.2), Todd Frazier (0.3), Manny Machado (0.4), and is even with Josh Donaldson.
His defensive rating has risen to nearly average (-1.0). Last season, we pointed out that Garcia was worst in the majors defensively… excepting perhaps for Hector Olivera – the guy who was supposed to play third base for the next couple of years.

Yes – Garcia’s play has improved.. and strongly so. And the Braves have him under team control through 2021… he’s not even arbitration-eligible until 2019.

But is that enough? Is it (I hate this word) sustainable?

2017 Options… So Far

More from Tomahawk Take

Garcia
Justin Turner – free agent, but early word is that the Mets have interest. Oddly, I am not seeing a lot of Dodger interest in their own player. He is closing in on age 32, which seems to be the norm for third basemen these days (see below).
Rio Ruiz. Holding his own at AAA in more ways than one. Note that he’s still just 22years old, but is finishing up a full AAA year while OPSing .728. Power is a little light… 25 XBH among 98 total hits and a .268 average. K’s are a bit high at 23%, but walk rate is 11.6%. If you are worried about BABIP, then his .341 figure will scare you. His glove won’t: just 6 errors after 105 games.
Martin Prado. He’ll be 33 in late October, and is having a repeat of his 2012 season… with better hitting. He will be a free agent and it’s not clear what it would take to get him to forgive the Braves for trading him away.
David Freese. Will be 34 in April. 1.5 fWAR so far; on track to match his 2.1 and 2.2 figures from 2014-15. Hitting .277 for Pittsburgh with 11 homers and .358 OBP for an .805 OPS with near-average defense. Would not be a bad consolation prize for a short-term deal.
Aaron Hill. Will be 35 next Spring. Is fading from past years, though this is his best season since 2012… .750 OPS.
Luis Valbuena. Another who will be in that 31-years-young cluster next year.
Yunel Escobar. He’ll be 34 next year… answer will almost certainly be ‘no’ on him, though K’s are low and average is consistently high (.314 in 2015; .318 this year).

But notice anything from most of these guys? Unless you’re either (a) thinking that Garcia is going to break out strong in 2017; or (b) projecting a major drop-off from the guys on this list, most of these free agents should do better than Garcia.

Will they be a lot better than Garcia? Not really. Turner might, but I also can’t see the Braves playing in those waters with Ruiz and Garcia being internal options and other hitters like Travis Demeritte or Austin Riley coming in the farm system… and trying to stay ahead of Kevin Maitan.

Next: This is Kind of Interesting

I am still not sold on Adonis Garcia after this season, but it still feels like third base will remain a position in flux for a while longer. Still, it’s nice to see Garcia making strides here in 2016.

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