House That Hank Built
Fansided

Atlanta Braves’ Dustin Peterson is on an Aaron Judge Trajectory

By Alan Carpenter

August 20, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99), second baseman Starlin Castro (14) and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (22) celebrate the 5-1 victory against Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
August 20, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99), second baseman Starlin Castro (14) and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury (22) celebrate the 5-1 victory against Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

Aaron Judge is a large human being at 6’7″/275.  Dustin Peterson is “just” 6’2″/185.  But it’s interesting to compare their respective paths in the minors and guess what that could portend for the Braves’ young outfielder.

It is fortunate that this isn’t a boxing match:  24-year-old Aaron Judge is certainly bigger, stronger, and has a decided reach advantage.  But that tale of the tape doesn’t directly translate into baseball acumen, either.

A couple of years ago, it wasn’t certain that Judge would be the hitting force that he’s projected to be.

In 2014, John Sickels ranked him 8th among Yankees’ prospects, saying:

"8) Aaron Judge, OF, Grade B-: Excellent tools from 2013 first-round pick out of Fresno State, could be a 20/20 player but we need to see how his hitting skills will translate into pro ball, if he’ll make contact sufficiently with a 6-7 wingspan, etc."

By 2015, that report had blossomed, as he ranked Judge #2:

"2) Aaron Judge, OF, Grade B+/Borderline A-: Age 22, Fresno State product hit .308/.419/.486 with 17 homers, 89 walks, 131 strikeouts in 467 at-bats at two levels of A-ball. Big raw power from 6-7 frame but has solid hitting/OBP skills to go with it, profiles as classic power-hitting right fielder."

What changed?

  • In 2014 (Age 22), Judge split time between A and High-A ball, hitting over .300 with a .900+ average OPS and 17 homers.
  • Of more note, though, he had 28 additional extra base hits:  a 31.3% XBH rate overall.
  • In 2015 (Age 23), Judge hit AA pitching well (.284), but struggled at AAA (.224).  His OPS dipped from .866 to .680 as well.
  • At AA, his XBH rate climbed to 43.7%.  At AAA it was 35.3%
  • In 2016 before being promoted, Judge “got” AAA:  .855 OPS and an XBH rate of 40%.

At each level, there was an adjustment, but then a recovery to match (+/- a bit) the production at the previous level… the sign of a hitter making adjustments successfully.

Judge also walks at a decent rate (~11%) and strikes out at a rate acceptable for a modern day slugger (~25%).

Dustin’s Numbers

If you strictly look at the scouting ratings that fangraphs provides, you’d figure that there is no comparison between this pair.  There wasn’t a lot of respect given in those numbers to Peterson.  However, he’s showing that early impressions are not the end of the story.

Part of the story here is that Peterson was drafted out of high school, and is much younger.  In fact, he will turn 22 on September 10th.

In 2014 and 2015, those growing pains were evident at early full-season leagues:

  • 2014:  Padres A-ball:  .233 average, .274 OBP, and .634 OPS.  Going back to the power indicators, his XBH rate was still a robust 35.7%.
  • 2015:  Braves A+.  Now you need to temper this a bit, given that there was a mid-season bus crash that messed up a lot of seasons for the Mudcats, but Peterson ended up with a .251 average, .317 OBP, and .665 OPS.  XBH Rate?  Just 22.3%, but with the improved numbers otherwise, we’ll chalk some of that up to the level change and time off.
  • 2016:  AA Breakout.  .288/.348/.441/.788.  The power is now emerging as well… 35.5% XBH rate with 11 HR.

Also of note is that Peterson is putting bat-to-ball more often than Judge:  K-rates of less than 20% (16.4% this season), though low-ish walk rates of around 8%.

There’s More to this Story

More from Tomahawk Take

Judge spent AA and AAA time in home parks somewhat unfavorable to hitting (Trenton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre).

  • 2016:  19 HR (10 Home/9 Road, 93 AAA games)
  • 2015:    8 HR (5/3, 61 AAA games)
  • 2015: 12 HR (5/7, 63 AA games)

However, that doesn’t blow the comparison yet (though it should scare the heck out of the AL East):  turns out that Peterson’s current home park is the worse for hitters in all of organized professional baseball.  Any league.  Any level.  Anywhere.  1st percentile.

Despite that, Dustin actually has more homers at Pearl’s Trustmark Park (8) than on the road (3).  The numbers suggest that he shouldn’t.

The other factor of interest is his age:  Peterson seldom faces pitching younger than he, so between the ballpark and experience factors, he’s performing despite being at these significant disadvantages.

Here’s the Deal

No, I’m not actually suggesting that Dustin Peterson is going to be the Goliath creature that Aaron Judge represents – heck, that kid will accidentally hit home runs; especially in certain areas of Yankee Stadium.

I do wish to point out that the power development of Peterson – as measured by the XBH rate – is roughly on track and on par with that of Judge and that should pique the interest of Braves’ fans.

  • A.  Judge:  33.3%;  Peterson: 35.7%
  • AA Judge:  43.7%;  Peterson: 35.5%
  • AAA Judge:  33.3%;  Peterson:  ???

Peterson might stall out as a hitter featuring wall-bangers for doubles more than homers (See Nick Markakis), but as lead Braves’ scout Brian Bridges likes to say, the power comes last in development.

Next: 1500: A Big Number in Any League

Do keep in mind that Dustin is still 2½ years younger than Judge with room to continue his power surge.

Home/Braves News