Albies Injury Means Atlanta Braves May Have to Take a Step Back

It’s not a torn ligament… but that doesn’t mean it’s a “good” injury, either: top prospect Ozzie Albies has a broken elbow.

Gavin Floyd. Daniel Winkler. Now it’s the Mississippi Braves’ second baseman Ozzie Albies. The Atlanta Braves have piled up some elbow injuries in recent years… but this one is the oddest of the bunch.

You can almost understand post-Tommy John pitchers with an elbow fracture since the torque involved with an arm in its “whip” motion of pitch delivery can generate some incredible and unnatural forces. In those cases, the repaired ligament holds tight and it’s the elbow – often the olecranon – that yields instead.

That’s why Albies injury is strange: he has no history of arm issues (unless you count a thumb injury from a 2015 slide). This break – the olecranon; tip of his elbow – came from swinging the bat during Wednesday’s playoff game at Pensacola.

Timeline

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An olecranon repair is not a fun surgical procedure. In fact, depending on the repairs necessary, the insertion of plates/wires/screws are often needed to stabilize the fracture.

John Schuerholz was quoted as believing that Albies will be ready to “be battling for a big-league spot in spring training next year”. That could be a bit optimistic. Indeed, until the surgery is performed, a proper prognosis may not be possible.

There’s the initial surgery. After 2-3 months, there could certainly be a follow-up surgery to remove some of the metalwork installed during the first go-around.

While all of this is going on, Albies will not be able to work out as he normally would during the off-season. Some patients report strength issues 7-8 months after the injury.

Five months from today is February 9th. The good news is that 19-year-olds might be a bit quicker to heal. However, 19-year-olds are still growing (assuming that Albies will grow much more at all!), and thus this off-time comes at a bad time for the teen (is there a good time?).

Braves’ Contingencies

All of this that follows will be a guess, but taking the middle ground on several reports suggests that Albies might be able to take part in some Spring Training activities, but would also need some additional rehab time once the season is underway.

There was some active debate on whether Albies was ready for the major leagues. My belief is that this argument is now moot. Jace Peterson is now your odds-on favorite to open SunTrust Park at second base with Albies getting a month of rehab, a month of AAA, and then (perhaps) a call-up to the majors in late May or early June.

Just in time for his arbitration clock to allow another year of team control.

No – I’m not at all suggesting that the Braves will engineer things in that manner. I am suggesting that the timeline is pointing in that direction, and undoubtedly, Atlanta will tread carefully with their top prospect’s health in an effort to avoid a re-injury.

Delayed Call

It’s an unfortunate speed bump for a kid whose fast-track to the majors will now be delayed. It was anticipated that Albies would be added to the 40-man roster once Mississippi’s playoff run ends (they are now tied 1-1 in their best-of-five series) and called up for the last 2-3 weeks of the season.

This injury will certainly mean that someone else can be protected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter. Albies will not have to be added to the 40-man roster until he’s ready for a major league promotion – he himself is not Rule 5 eligible this Winter.

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Let’s hope for some better news once the surgery is performed.

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