Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Schedule, Snit, Signs

The Braves returned from Miami early on Sunday.  Barring crazy events involving the Mets, Giants, and Cardinals, Sunday’s scheduled game will not be made up.  It’s a rare two-days-without-baseball situation for the Braves, who will finish out the year at home this week.

In lieu of actual baseball activity on the field for the Atlanta Braves, the Morning Chop will review several newsy items that have been building up.

The Schedule

The Braves host Philadelphia on Tuesday-Thursday, then close down Turner Field with the Detroit Tigers.  Those last three games could end up being very interesting – both for Detroit (fighting for a playoff spot) and for the Braves (who are approaching a lower draft pick or two).

DETROIT – 1.5 games behind Baltimore for that last wild card spot… with Seattle and Houston right behind them.  Toronto and Baltimore now hold the Wild Cards, but they play each other starting on Tuesday.

Clearly, the Tigers/Mariners/Astros are all hoping Toronto will sweep the Orioles to allow them to catch up.  Detroit hosts Cleveland before coming to Atlanta while Seattle and Houston play each other before Houston plays the Angels and Seattle the A’s over the weekend.

If you’d like to see the Marlins get in as a sentimental Wild Card…no.  They will have to win out and then still get a bunch of help.  The Fish are 4 behind the Cardinals with 6 to play.  They have to sweep the Mets and hope they can catch the Nationals in neutral over the weekend while the Mets get Philadelphia.  Even so… the Cardinals would still have to falter.

• Giants:  vs. Rockies, vs. Dodgers (both at home)
• Cardinals:  vs. Cincy (4); vs. Pittsburgh (3) (both at home)
• Mets:  vs. Miami, Philly (both on road)
• Miami:  vs. Mets, Nats (both at home)

Back in the AL:  If it gets tight, the Braves could end up seeing Justin Verlander in a must-win game for the Tigers for the Turner Field finale.

Brian Snitker

It’s interesting how the team’s momentum has suddenly made Brian Snitker an odds-on favorite to lose the “interim” tag from the title he’s held for most of the season.

There have been a number of quotes lately from players about the job Snit has done, how John Coppolella have praised him… all of the things you might expect to see if perhaps a political ‘trial balloon’ was being floated to see what fan reactions might be like.

John Coppolella has added his own praise, but also promises a full managerial search after the season – with “outside” candidates under consideration as well.

It might be telling to watch for the names of those ‘outside candidates’.  In particular, if we hear of a small batch of relatively unfamiliar names, it could be an indication that the effort is not entirely serious.

It has been noted that what fans see out of a manager constitutes only about 10% of the job.  The rest takes place in the clubhouse and on the practice fields.  From what we’ve seen this season, it’s very hard to make a judgment… but clearly the players are pleased with Snitker.

If you couldn’t blame Fredi Gonzalez early on thanks to the bad schedule and bad players, then it’s hard to turn around and attribute this last-season success to Brian Snitker with his slate of a better schedule with better players – unless somehow you think that his presence alone suddenly made Inciarte, Garcia, et al start to hit better.

I will say this:  if you don’t give the job to Snitker, then it might be difficult to then justify handing the reins of leadership to either Eddie Perez or Terry Pendleton… especially Perez, given that Pendleton has at least served as bench coach.

The more interesting question for the managerial staff might be the position of Pitching coach.  No one is talking about it, but the struggles that this staff has had during the majority of this season have to concern Coppolella and the Front Office.  Has Roger McDowell been effective with his young pitchers?  Is there a disconnect between the minor leagues and the major leagues?  Can/should the Braves continue with McDowell?

Better Offense than the Cubs?

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Since the All-Star Break, the Braves have scored 310 runs – better than the Cubs (307) and all other NL clubs except COL/WSH/LAD/ARZ.  Their offensive WAR component has been 11.1, which (pro-rated for an entire season) would be sufficient to be competitive for a playoff spot… if the pitching were present and if this pace could be sustained.

Thus, the conversation has turned:  the Braves’ priority is no longer about hitting:  it’s pitching… and maybe a catcher.  And maybe a sliding coach for Mallex Smith.

We’ve already speculated about this multiple times – and doubtless will continue to do so – but it’s just fascinating how this table has turned so dramatically in the midst of a single season.

Of course there’s never been a team with the worst offense in the first half that’s flipped that to being one of the best in the second half, either.

That ‘Race’ for the Draft Pick

The Minnesota Twins will have the first overall pick in the 2017 draft – and the largest bonus pool to go along with that.  That has been clinched now.

With the cancelled game yesterday and the win-needy Tigers coming in on Friday, the Braves are in an interesting position.  They will play 161 games which probably throws out the tie-breaker scenarios – which Atlanta would have owned… except vs. the Reds.

• Braves (63-92), [2nd overall pick]  6 games left
• DBacks (64-91) [-1 game ‘behind’], 7 games
• Reds* (65-90) [-2], 7 games
• Rays (65-90) [-2], 7 games
• Padres (66-90) [-2.5], 6 games

* – Reds own all tie-breakers, then Braves, Padres, DBacks, A’s (67-88) and Rays in that order

When you’re thinking “free agent signings” for this off-season, keep in mind that the top 10 draft picks are protected – you can sign a Qualifying Offer (QO) free agent and retain that pick… losing a second round pick in the case of the Braves.

As you’re looking at pitchers, then, here are some thoughts:

• The Marlins may now be a bigger off-season player for pitching… for the obvious reason
• Jeremy Hellickson could be offered the dreaded QO – with his 3.78 ERA.  He’s also a Scott Boras client, which likely will delay his signing with anyone.
• Rich Hill cannot be given such an offer.
• Kenley Jansen – even as a closer – could get one.  I don’t see the Braves going here regardless.
• Ivan Nova cannot be given a QO.  He’s pitched better with Pittsburgh (3.49 in 59 innings).
• I do not see the Braves going after a QO guy unless they truly believe such a player would be the “final piece” toward a playoff-capable team.
• Watch out to see if the Red Sox pick up the option of Clay Buchholz:  $13,500,000

Next: Another Star Extinguished Too Soon

That’s all for now… enjoy the day off!