Atlanta Braves' Remaining Draft-Pick Scenarios

This torrid late run by the Braves has been fun to watch, though it has also put them in the mix for lowering their draft positions for the following year. Let’s look at what still could happen this weekend.

Here is the current draft order for 2017, if the season had already finished:

TWINS (by a mile)
RAYS (-9)
ATLANTA BRAVES (-9.5)
REDS (-10)
ATHLETICS (-10)
DIAMONDBACKS (-10)
PADRES (-11)
PHILLIES (-13)
BREWERS (-14)
ANGELS (-16)
ROCKIES (-18)

I have placed eleven teams on this list because these are the clubs still in the running for the 10 protected draft picks (i.e., the Top 10 teams do not lose a first round pick when signing a Qualifying Offer player; they lose their next pick instead).

TIE-BREAKERS: Ties are broken by virtue of the teams’ records from last season… worst record wins out. That priority order among these teams is: PHL/CIN/ATL/COL/MIL/OAK/SDP/ARZ/TAM/MIN/LAA

Logjam

The Braves are currently picking 3rd. That canceled game from last Sunday is now looming fairly large… though the odds are that the Braves would have beaten the Marlins (again), and thus they might already have been in a 4-way tie… so maybe that actually helped in a bad way?

But in the “Worst” case scenario, this could happen:

Braves beat the Tigers twice, finish at 68-93
Reds, A’s, DBacks all split (or worse) and end up at 68-94 or 67-95
San Diego tanks a pair to join them at 68-94

…except that this scenario can’t happen. San Diego and Arizona are playing one another! Thus only one of these teams could pass up Atlanta – not both. So if Atlanta wins out, they pass one of this pair – no matter how they finish. If Atlanta splits, then they can only pass Arizona if they lose twice.

So at worst, Atlanta ends up with the 6th draft pick in 2017. Do you realize that the Braves still had the #1 pick on the morning of August 31st?

Who Plays Whom?

Most Likely Scenario?

RAYS split with Texas, finish at 66-94
BRAVES split with Detroit, winning the last game on Sunday to close Turner Field. 67-94
REDS split with Cubbies, 68-94.
OAK loses both to Seattle, 67-95 (Passing up Atlanta)
PADRES and DBACKS split; 68-94 for Arizona; 69-93 for San Diego.
PHILS stumble twice: 70-92
BREW and ROX split; 72-90, 76-86 respectively.
ANGELS split with Houston; 74-88.

If that plays out, Atlanta ends up picking 4th next year… and their record actually ends up a half-game better than last year, for those keeping track.

Braves could get the 2nd draft pick back if:

RAYS win twice and Atlanta splits (while REDS/ARZ/OAK all win once)
Atlanta loses twice and RAYS don’t
RAYS split and Atlanta loses twice

If Atlanta wins once, they will pick:

2ND if Rays win 2 and REDS/ARZ/OAK all win once
3RD if Rays win 0 or 1 while REDS/ARZ/OAK all win once
4th if Rays win 0 or 1 and one of REDS/ARZ/OAK lose twice
4th if Rays win twice and two of REDS/ARZ/OAK lose twice
5th if Rays win twice and ALL of REDS/ARZ/OAK lose twice
5th if Rays win 0 or 1 and two of REDS/ARZ/OAK lose twice
6th if Rays win 0 or 1 and ALL of REDS/ARZ/OAK lose twice

That’s not entirely complete, but good enough for now.

Suffice it to say this: at this time of year, motivation is a huge factor: Detroit and Seattle are motivated. That factor increases all the more if Toronto loses again tonight at Boston.

Next: Jenkins Hurt in Braves' Loss

Thus the Braves might have already had their last win at Turner Field… but we’ll still see them going down fighting – that much is so.

Home/Braves News

Atlanta Braves’ Remaining Draft-Pick Scenarios

By Alan Carpenter | Oct 1, 2016

This torrid late run by the Braves has been fun to watch, though it has also put them in the mix for lowering their draft positions for the following year. Let’s look at what still could happen this weekend.

Logjam

Who Plays Whom?

More from Tomahawk Take

Most Likely Scenario?