Atlanta Braves May Have Trouble Keeping Up With Rivals' Payroll

With news of the Mets throwing $110 million at Yoenis Cespedes today, it’s a good time to look at the Braves’ payroll and whether they can even keep up with their division.

4 years at an average rate of $27.5 million for Yoenis Cespedes. $22.5 million for 2017, then a jump to $29 million plus for the remaining 3 years (when Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker come off the books).

That’s a lot of coin. Deep waters that the Atlanta Braves don’t swim in.

The NL East and Payrolls

As it stands, the Braves are at least putting themselves into a position of improvement in their budget.

Perhaps surprisingly, this “only” commits the Mets to $101 million so far for 2017… except that they have 10 arbitration cases to deal with. So tack on another $43 million or so.

Seems that this organization is putting their entanglements with Bernie Madoff in the rear-view mirror.

The Cots payroll site has the Mets at these Opening Day payroll figures in recent years:

2012: $94.5m
2013: $93.6m
2014: $84.9m
2015: $101.3m
2016: $135.2m

If all arbitration cases go through as forecasted, they are looking at at least $148 million for 2017… with no more player additions (and they still need a real center fielder).

Philadelphia is in rebuild mode, so their $88.6m for 2016 is misleading. But from 2011-2015, their payroll was no lower that $146.9 million. They effectively as a sleeping giant at this point.

The Nationals are getting much more revenue from their MASN issues (and probably will get more once the lawyers stop fighting). Their numbers have ballooned as well:

2012: $92.5m
2013: $118.3m
2014: $137.3m
2015: $162.0m
2016: $145.2m

The Marlins? Never mind – this discussion isn’t really about them.

How About Those Braves?

Atlanta’s highest Opening Day payroll was $112.0m in 2014. It’s the only figure above 9 digits since 2008.

That will change this season. Right now, I am projecting an O.D. payroll of approximately $101.5m for Atlanta… after estimated arbitration cases are factored in. (Details on that will be shown after ‘arbitration season’ ends).

But that’s still well behind their well-heeled division rivals.

SunTrust Park is going to be a game-changer for the Braves. Game revenues will increase. Corporate partnerships will increase. Non-game income will increase. The Braves will be landlords in a big way.

But is it going to be enough to keep up with the larger North-Eastern markets? Or will it just be enough to keep them in sight on the horizon?

DON’T BLAME THE OWNERSHIP

We’ve talked about this before. It’s not a Liberty Media problem… heck, their investment at the new SunTrust site is going to come in somewhere around $1.1 billion or more (yes, we know – Cobb County’s taxpayers are on the hook for $400 million, but they will get it back in future growth).

Their vision is that SunTrust is the best way to infuse new monies quickly, since their TV contract continues to be the gift that keeps giving… to Fox Sports. This is despite having the 9th largest media market in the country… but note that New York, Philadelphia, and Washington are ranked #1, #4, and #7 respectively.

We don’t have insight on what these new revenues could amount to… nor how much of that can be put back into the team. Fans have been promised a bigger payroll… and that’s starting this season. Past year’s guesses suggested that the Braves might have been able to squeeze $120 million… if there was reason to spend it all.

But even if there were free agents a-plenty and Atlanta felt like going all in, could you imagine $140 million for the payroll? $150 million? Doesn’t feel likely – and we haven’t had any public pronouncements to suggest that the Braves can either match or sustain that level of spending any time soon.

So even that would still lag behind the other 3 NL East Rivals. And don’t forget that Liberty Media will have to pay back the notes that financed this construction.

Based on 2016 data, a $140 million payroll would still rank just 13th among the 30 team league…and we believe the Mets will pass that figure this season.

If the Braves were somehow able to get into the $150 million range, that would put them 9th in 2016 terms… maybe the top dozen or so by the time 2018 rolls around.

But as suggested, there’s a belief that both the Washington and New York clubs still have some additional space to grow in the coming years. Philadelphia appears to be able to spend into the $180 million range at any point that they feel the need.

That’s Not the Whole Message

More from Tomahawk Take

This really isn’t intending to suggest bad news. After all, imagine if the Braves continued to remain at Turner Field with additional stadium maintenance issues and no additional outside revenue.

As it stands, the Braves are at least putting themselves into a position of improvement in their budget. Without SunTrust Park and Battery Atlanta, none of that would be possible and the team would have to compete as the smaller market clubs do.

The hope, then is that the combination of smart handling of the farm system plus the ability to target specific players for spending will make and keep the team competitive.

Both aspects will be necessary. The former is simply a good way to do business. The latter will allow the Braves to fill holes and inject impact players as final pieces to a competitive puzzle.

We know that simply throwing money around doesn’t win championships… building teams in a smart way is hopefully the winning formula… one that this club seems committed to.

Still, there has to be that balance, and SunTrust Park/Battery Atlanta is that route to revenue increases for the Braves.

We’re left with guesses since we cannot get forecast data from teams on their books and their plans. We can only go on what they actually ‘do’ in terms of paying their players.

2017 is going to be a poor year to gauge things for the Braves, as the free agent class is lean and the braves are not quite in the position to ‘go for it.’ Nonetheless, the payroll is up for this year.

Next: Keeping Up With the Jones's

So as we go forward, remember this: SunTrust is going to keep the Atlanta Braves competitive, but it’s not going to be a panacea for all ills related to money… unless the team has really milked their sponsors in an unexpected manner!

Buy with Coppy and Hart running the show, it seems anything is possible.

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Atlanta Braves May Have Trouble Keeping Up With Rivals’ Payroll

By Alan Carpenter | Nov 29, 2016