The 2017 Atlanta Braves: How Good Will They Be?
Barring something Coppy-esque, the final pieces are set for most MLB teams at this point and it’s a fair question to ask: how competitive will the Atlanta Braves be as they unlock the doors on SunTrust Field for the first time?
What will this Atlanta Braves lineup do? How will it fare against the denizens of the NL East?
Position by position, let’s take a quick look at the current depth charts and hazard a few guesses about what we might see over the next 9 months.
Methodology
What I will do is score National League East clubs by position from 1 point (Worst) to 5 points (Best) for performance expectations offensively and defensively. This is not based on projection scores. It is based on track records, player ages, and general expectations.
This is not a ‘ranking’, per se, but a scaling: for example, 2 elite pitchers will both get scores of 5 – I will not attempt to put one in first place at 5 points and another in second with 4 points.
We will see a lot of cases in which one player dominates the division at his position while the others lag behind. The scores will reflect that as well.
One general flaw may be that (almost) every position will have at least one 5 point assignee, though it’s certainly plausible that the 5 point catcher does not equate to a five point third baseman, for instance. But recognizing that, we’ll press forward regardless.
Let’s dig in.
CATCHER
Since the Braves made the latest move yesterday, and did it at this position, let’s start here.
- ATL – Flowers, Suzuki (Recker, Gosewisch)
- MIA – Realmuto, Ellis
- NYM – d’Arnaud, Plawecki
- PHI – Rupp, Knapp
- WAS – Norris, Lobaton
The clear leader in this group is J.T. Realmuto, with a .771 OPS and 3rd ranked in all MLB catchers with 3.5 fWAR in 2016. He is backed by long-time Dodger vet A.J. Ellis.
Next closest was Cameron Rupp; Flowers and Suzuki are next on the list.
The problem that most teams are facing is the age of their catchers. Well – that or the fact that they just aren’t very good. So while the Marlins win this category – by a mile – the rest you could probably throw into a hat an draw names since it will be difficult to gauge performance separations for any of them.
Still, we’ll try this: MIA (5), ATL (2.5), PHI (2), WAS (1), NYM (1)
1ST BASE
- ATL – Freeman
- MIA – Bour
- NYM – Duda
- PHI – Joseph
- WAS – Zimmerman
Is this the year Ryan Zimmerman gets healthy and remembers how to hit? That’s the biggest question with this positional category. If he does, the Nats could run off and hide from the rest of the division.
But Zim has been supported by great offensive help for multiple years now while he either hasn’t been able to stay on the field or hasn’t been able to … well, do much period.
As for the rest: this is Atlanta’s category to own. If Freeman stays healthy, he becomes their catalyst for all things this club does. And he’s also the clear runaway leader of this position battle.
ATL (5), MIA (2.5), PHI (1.5), WAS (1.5), NYM (1)
2ND BASE
- ATL – Rodriguez/Peterson/Albies?
- MIA – Gordon
- NYM – Walker
- PHI – Hernandez
- WAS – Murphy
Here’s a strong category from top to bottom. Daniel Murphy has to be the winner here, but it’s still competitive… at least if Neil Walker and Cesar Hernandez can repeat their performances and Dee Gordon can stick around for the whole year (and get on base).
This one is tricky to grade for the Braves since it’s hard to know who might get the most reps at the position between Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. Smart money suggests that Rodriguez might play most days… though that could be at two positions.
Of course if neither gets off to a good start, there’s another Atlanta option that will be waiting in the wings.
Let’s try this order: WAS (5), PHI (4), NYM (3), MIA (2), ATL (1.5)