Atlanta Braves Crystal Ball: Projections Schmojections … Bah Humbug!

The Atlanta Braves have a legitimate chance to be a Wild Card contender in 2017, at least, I think they do. PECOTA’s projections, merited as they may be, are only projections, after all.

Anyone who has played fantasy baseball or football can tell you projections mean nothing. As such, the same can be said of the recent projections for the Atlanta Braves released yesterday.

Projections can be fun to look at, and obviously, they’re there to give us fans something to talk about. And they can be really fun to do, but they can still be misleading.

We do them all the time for nothing more than to see how close we come to being correct, that’s the fun part, but they still mean very little.

Baseball games aren’t played on paper. If they were, the Nationals would be able to make it out of the first round of the playoffs every year. Still waiting for that to happen.

They’re played on dirt. Paper projections are something I don’t put too much stock in. A lot of things go into making projections, not among them, the actual playing of the games.

So, of the PECOTA projections that came out yesterday, Jeff told us about, I don’t buy into them. Jeff poses the question: “But we have to be realistic…computers don’t lie. — or do they??”

No, computers don’t lie. However, they rely mighty heavily on the humans entering the information to formulate and eventually calculate. No one is perfect and can predict the future.

What these “projections” don’t account for (because no one could possibly know) is the many twists and turns that unfold during the course of a season.

Trades, injuries, slumps, the possibility of Freddie Freeman having a bad year. R.A. Dickey reverting back to Cy Young form, Adonis Garcia remembering he’s actually Adonis Garcia, these incalculable intangibles can’t be predicted nor projected.

Trader John AKA John Coppolella, will make moves over the season and maybe even leading up to the season. Opening Day Eve moves, while rare, do happen. See Craig Kimbrel.

I think Atlanta has improved overall. The additions of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia, and the new physique of one Matt Kemp, along with Sean Rodriguez, has me hoping for a far better result than a projected 76 wins.

I may be overly optimistic here, but I can see the Braves easily contending for the Wild Card in September. I think 90-92 wins gets you the NL East crown. I have a feeling the Braves surprise many of the nay-Sayers.

I think it is entirely possible for Atlanta to come away with a solid 85-88 wins in 2017. Freeman, I expect, has another MVP caliber year.

Adding Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Kurt Suzuki, and Rodriguez makes things more intriguing. Colon and Dickey could very well be 15 game winners. We know Julio will be Julio Teheran. Therefore, pitching isn’t as much a concern as it has been in past years.

Nick Markakis has been the most consistent contributor for the offense the last 2 years. Matt Kemp has been working his butt off to shed some lbs. Ender Inciarte will pick right back up from where he left off in 2016.

And call me crazy, but I think Dansby Swanson not only is in the mix for Rookie of the Year, but wins it, and brings in some MVP votes, too. (Yay projections)

The start to the 2017 season can’t be any worse than last year’s start can be, can it? I expect a much more positive beginning to the season. An April of .500 or better could set up a win total of more than 76.

Whether it happens, no one can really know for sure. Not even the computers. I’m not expecting for a NL East title in 2017, but I am expecting a much better showing than last year. 76 wins, to me, is a stagnant outlook.

Meaning, I don’t believe a projected increase of only eight wins, allegedly, is progress. That’s maintaining the Status Quo.

There’s too much that can happen in between those numbers, as the season unfolds. Especially when the roster they start with, most likely won’t be the same roster they end with.

I suppose, to get a baseline impression of what you might see, these projections are, I guess, worthy of consideration. The operative word in that previous sentence is “might”.

Next: Could These Vets Be On The Move?

No, the Braves probably doesn’t make it to the World Series, yet. But they are far from being a supposed 76 win team in 2017. Projections Schmojections – Bah, Humbug.

Seriously, though, let’s not get too wound up over these. A difference does lie between a projection vs. a prediction.