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2017 Atlanta Braves Draft: BaseballAmerica Takes First Look

By Alan Carpenter

Aug 17, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view of the bats of San Diego Padres right fielder Matt Kemp (27) and left fielder Justin Upton (10) before the game against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 17, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view of the bats of San Diego Padres right fielder Matt Kemp (27) and left fielder Justin Upton (10) before the game against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
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Yes, it’s still March.  High school leagues are barely getting underway.  But scouts have been scouting, travel teams traveling, and showcase teams showing off.  So we have early mock draft guesses getting started.

The Atlanta Braves roared back last September to secure the 5th overall draft pick for June’s amateur (Rule 4) draft, moving down from 3rd place during the final weekend.

Regardless of their slot, premium talent will be available in this position, and the Braves need to merely sit back and watch for whoever falls into their lap.

Um… no.  That’s not how either scouting or drafting works.

This club’s scouting department will (continue to) be working its tails off between now and June to find the best athletes that might be available… because that’s just what they do.

Baseball America

With that as backdrop, BaseballAmerica nonetheless has their very early first guesses of the players they see as the best draft options for the top 10 picks.

“Guesses” may be the right word… they list about six or seven reasons that might make this draft almost completely unpredictable.

In terms of the talent, though, they cite a “depth of velocity” from the high school pitchers, but also an unusual dearth of athletic talent from college position players.

There is no mention about hitting in general, though the fun part is that two of the better hitting prospects might very well be drafted… as pitchers.

All that said, here are their top four… today:

  • Hunter Green (Twins), RHP.  Barring injury or an inexplicably terrible Spring, he will definitely be drafted in one of the top 2-3 positions.  A legit hitter, but teams will be looking at him as a pitcher.  102 mph on the gun is too tempting a target for most.
  • Brendan McKay (Reds), LHP/1B, Louisville.  This is a bit weird.  He’s a 2-way player, but BA spends most of their effort on why he’s not a fit at this level as a hitter while not telling us why he should be second overall as a pitcher, though the body of their article mentions that he’s off to a scorching-hot start.
  • Royce Lewis (Padres), SS/OF.  Sounds very ‘toolsy’ (I get only a limited number of uses of that word per year, so that’s #1).
  • J.B. Bukauskas (Rays), RHP, NCarolina.  BA mentions plus fastball, 70 slider, and solid changeup… with improved command.  Sounds like a can’t-miss.

That brings us to the Braves.

Drafting Braves

We know that Atlanta likes pitching… high school pitching in particular.

Still, there’s a theme that continues to resonate, and you will no-doubt hear it a lot as we get closer to draft day:  we always take the best player available.

With college players, once they hit 21 or 22 years old, you pretty much know what you’re getting.  If the hitting ability of a position player hasn’t emerged, then it’s tough to project that to happen within the next 2-3 years that might be required to reach the majors on a ‘normal’ schedule.

The same is true for pitchers with their pitch development and command.

With high school kids, there’s at least a lot of extra time available – plus time to devote solely to the craft.

Personally, under the history the Braves have shown, all of this points toward D.L Hall, a lefty high schooler from Valdosta, GA.  BaseballAmerica suggests that the Brewers would take him at #9 in this mock.

But instead, they currently like Austin Beck for Atlanta, an outfielder from North Davidson HS in North Carolina’s (Western style) barbecue capital of Lexington.  The Rays are said to like him for their 4th pick.

Why?  Oh, 70-grade power, speed, defense, and an arm.  He did blow out an ACL last Summer, but is apparently back strong (here’s hoping he doesn’t experience a Mat Gamel situation).

A year ago at a Baseball combine of sorts, Beck ran a 6.62 60-yd dash and recorded a 97 exit velocity during their tests – the best of all participants in 5 locations then… and this was with Beck as a junior.  The speed timing put him in the Top 25 overall.

Just before his injury, the 6’2″/200 Beck hammered 2 homers in a playoff game for North Davidson.

Here’s a link to a story on Beck which contains a video of him in the cage post-surgery.  I’m no hitting scouting, but he appears to have solid bat speed without excess length in his swing and good weight transfer.

Beck is currently a Carolina Tarheels commit for next year… but I seriously doubt that he will end up keeping that commitment if he has a 2017 season that approaches the expectations now being set for him.

Next: Not Quite the Cruelest Cuts

Does that mean the Braves might be calling?  Now that is a whole ‘nother question – and relies on whether Beck’s upside (if available) exceeds that of the best pitchers on their board.

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