Atlanta Braves 2017 Player Preview: Paco Rodriguez

Paco Rodriguez has been an Atlanta Brave for 18 months, yet he is set to make his Braves debut in 2017, maybe.

Paco Rodriguez is the lone survivor of the trade that brought him to the Atlanta Braves over 18 months ago. He was sent over to the Braves with Hector Olivera for Alex Wood, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, and Bronson Arroyo.

Zachary Bird (who was lost to the Rangers in the Rule 5 Draft this past December) was also included in that three team trade. After arm surgery and a decent reputation preceding him from the Dodgers, could Paco crack the Opening Day Roster?

The Dodger Years

It’s a possibility. He is one of a few left-handed relievers vying for a spot in the bullpen. Before coming to the Braves, Rodriguez appeared in 124 games from 2012 to 2015.

In 2015, Rodriguez would go down with Tommy John Surgery. He missed the rest of 2015 and all of 2016.

On the bright side, Rodriguez had solid numbers for the Dodgers before the injury. His big season came in 2013.

In that year, he appeared in 76 games (54.1 IP) posting a 2.32 ERA, 63 K’s, and a 0.902 WHIP. His RA9 (ERA but with unearned runs included) was 2.48 and had an ERA+ (adjusted for park) of 154.

His only post season appearance cam e in 2013 against who else, but the Braves. That outing lasted all of 2/3 of an inning. He gave up 4 hits, 2 runs, 2 BB’s, and an ERA of 27.00.

So, if that’s your only memory of Paco Rodriguez, then that’s not a good impression. Rodriguez has the ability to be more like his 2013 season. As long as all goes well in his comeback from arm surgery.

2017 Chances

First of all, John Coppolella and Co., seem to be set on giving Rodriguez every chance to make the big league club. Had they not, I think he would have been gone a while ago.

I know, up until his injury, he was a guy Dodger fans were always expecting to be in their bullpen. He was consistent and set things up well for their closer.

Atlanta Braves

Rodriguez throws 4 different pitches. According to FanGraphs, over his career thus far, he has mixed them up pretty evenly, except for his change-up.

However, year by year trends shift for Rodriguez. His rookie season he threw his fastball 41.6% of the time averaging 90.2 MPH, by 2015, he was throwing it 32.6% of the time for an avg MPH of 87.1.

By the 2015 season, he was throwing his slider 35.2%, averaging 79.7 MPH. That is up from 17.8% in 2012. During his big season of 2013, he threw the fastball 18.6% and the slider 39.0% of the time.

Rodriguez also throws a cutter and change. His cutter use is almost equal to the amount of sliders he throws. His change is more of an afterthought as he goes to it 5.8% of the time.

These trends, if you will, lead me to believe he may have been having arm issues even before 2015. That’s a huge drop in percentage of use for the fastball. By 2014, his average velocity had dropped from 90.2 to 87.8 MPH.

This, also coupled with the increased use of the slider, I think aided in the arm woes. In a new program, with a new pitching coach, and a fresh start, hopefully we can find the Paco Rodriguez of 2013, minus all the arm complications.

Next: Player Preview: Jim Johnson

Summary

All this being said, I think Paco is out to prove himself this spring, and another lefty in the pen is never a bad thing. Rodriguez adds value there, and he could be a reliable set up guy for Arodys Vizcaino or Jim Johnson.

Or even better, if he is productive, that could be a nasty 7th inning on for opposing hitters. A combination of Paco, Vizzy, and/or JJ could be a 7th, 8th, and 9th no one will want to face.

Or maybe, I just want to be able to refer to him as PacoTuesday (where strikeouts are 2 for 1 any day he pitches). That’s why he really needs to be on the roster.

#PacoTuesdays