Atlanta Braves Trying Hard to Beat the Math

Fangraphs recently spoke with Braves President John Hart.  The subject was … philosophy.  That conversation provides some interesting insights.

What are the Atlanta Braves doing with this rebuild?  What is the plan?  What are the underlying assumptions and guiding principles?

Those are the questions are the heart of this interview Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs had with Braves’ President of Baseball Operations John Hart.  The full story is available here, and I recommend it to you.

This is not Hart first rebuild rodeo.  It’s not even his second.  The Braves represent his third attempt to bring a team from the ashes to the altar of baseball dominance, with previous work guiding the mid-90’s Indians and the 2001+ Rangers.

The principles have been tweaked a bit and certainly circumstances in the marketplace have changed, but the Braves are following the 2009+ Pittsburgh script of stockpiling pitching that Hart noted of their Pirates GM Neal Huntington while an MLB Network Analyst.

I know – that’s a shock to anyone paying even casual attention.  But it’s because the organization has been trying out a few new wrinkles in an effort to beat the math.

This is the math telling us in multiple studies on the subject that pitching prospects will fail a lot more often than not.  77.4% of the time for “Top 100” pitching prospects according to one study (1990-2003), and 77.5% in a different look extending the time from 1990 to 2006.  [again:  Fangraphs sourced materials]

The silver lining suggests that the “premium” prospects (1-20) saw their fail rates (a harsh-sounding term, but generally is marked by major league successes) drop to 51.7%.  Still no better than one out of every pair of pitchers.

Hart himself has figured that only 1 out of every 5 pitchers is marked for ultimate success, so he’s even slightly more pessimistic than the study data… but also well-grounded on the expectations he maintains for his own players coming through the ranks.

For sure, position players “bust” also, but at a 66% clip.  So you might wonder this:  why not go for the better odds?