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2017 Atlanta Braves Player Preview: Josh Collmenter

By Stephen Tolbert

Feb 15, 2017; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Josh Collmenter (55) throws a pitch as Atlanta Braves catcher David Freitas (72) catches during MLB spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 15, 2017; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Josh Collmenter (55) throws a pitch as Atlanta Braves catcher David Freitas (72) catches during MLB spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
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In search of some sort of respectability in the starting rotation in 2016, the Atlanta Braves turned to journeyman Josh Collmenter.

What started as a move in desperation at the end of a long year, ended in finding a bit of lightning in a bottle. Josh Collmenter posted a 2.37 ERA in 3 September starts, and had the Atlanta Braves reassessing his future.

That good work, along with a solid spring, has essentially guaranteed Collmenter a spot in Atlanta’s 2017 bullpen where his primary role seems to be a long-man/swing man type.

Given the relative age of some of their starters, this will actually be a pretty important role for Braves as it’s unlikely they’re going to see many complete games this year.

What He Has Been

For Josh it’s been a interesting career so far. He bust unto the scene in 2011 with the Diamondbacks, starting 24 games and throwing over 150 innings. He posted an impressive 3.38 ERA and 3.80 FIP which was good for a 2.3 WAR and it looked like Arizona had themselves a young stud.

His performance would ebb and flow over the next few years but would usually end the year with decent numbers. He posted a FIP that started with a “3” in 2012, 13 and 14 and seemed to have settled in to a nice big-league career in Arizona.

Starting in 2015, though, the wheels started to wobble a bit as his HR rate shot up while his K rate plummeted. In 2016, his HR/9 rate continued to go up and not seeing much hope in the situation, Arizona cut him on August 7th.

He would catch on with Cubs not long after that and on September 14th Atlanta acquired him from Chicago for cash. The rest is history.

What to expect in 2017

The standard numbers Collmenter put up in his short stint with Atlanta were very encouraging. The previously mentioned 2.37 ERA over three starts is obviously good news but even the K rate jumped back up to a respectable 7.58.

There are still some red flags though. The .238 BABIP he posted with Atlanta isn’t going to stick around and neither is the 95.2 LOB%. If you’re not familiar, LOB% is left-on-base percentage and league average is around 70%. Pitchers who operate over or under that number can expect regression back to the mean eventually, which means Collmenter should be in for a good amount of negative correction.

More from Tomahawk Take

The other big red flag is the home runs. Logically, moving out of Chase Field and into Turner Field should’ve resulted in a drop home runs. Turner isn’t the hitting environment they enjoy out in Arizona. But Collmenter still allowed 1.42 HR/9 once he got to Atlanta, and even though it’s a small sample, it’s been a previous problem before and therefore something to look out for.

Steamer projects his peripherals will regress back to league average and therefore his overall numbers will regress with them. It has him down for 4.60 ERA, a 4.57 FIP and -0.1 WAR.

That may be a bit harsh but I don’t see much more.

Next: Atlanta Braves 2017 Team Predictions?

2017 Prediction

4.40 ERA, 4.50 FIP 0.0 WAR

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