Can Atlanta Braves catcher Tyler Flowers have another 2016?
By Josh Brown
On Sunday, Braves catcher Flowers left the game with a hamstring injury. But despite a little hammy issue, if Flowers continues on this trajectory, well, he could have another 2016.
In 2016, Tyler Flowers had a career year at the plate in which he slashed .270/.357/.420. He had never hit north of .241 in a season before, and he had never had an OBP higher than .300 (this isn’t including 2009 and 2010 during which he only played a few games).
The Roswell, Georgia native came to the Braves last off-season as a 30-year-old. But not just any 30-year-old.
He was Chris Sale‘s personal catcher. And he was sneaky good. In 2015, according to Baseball Prospectus’ model for pitch framing, Tyler Flowers saved over 16 runs by obtaining extra strikes for his pitching staff.
If you added this 1.6 wins onto his 0.4 WAR per FanGraphs (which does not include pitch framing), T-Flow was basically worth around 2 wins in 2015, which put him into the “average MLB catcher” category.
To put that into perspective, your average MLB catcher these days commands somewhere around $15MM on the open market. So while Matt Wieters was slashing .243/.302/.409 in 2016 while making $15.8MM, Flowers was making $2MM and hitting much better.
Let’s say Tyler Flowers didn’t have his .270 year in 2016. Let’s say he hit around .240 and posted somewhere around a .333 OBP. You couple this with his elite framing and you’ve still got yourself a bargain.
The Atlanta Braves knew this, and that’s why they signed Tyler Flowers.
Let’s get back to the question at hand. Can T-Flow have another offensive year like 2016?
Well, based on his career numbers at the plate, it would be a stretch. But weirder things have happened. If you look at Flowers’ career, he’s rarely been given the opportunity to be a full-time catcher.
It appears that the Atlanta Braves want him to be that guy, while designating Suzuki to catching R.A. Dickey‘s knuckleballs. So, maybe this sort of trust in him has instilled a new type of personal responsibility?
Despite the hamstring sideline, he’s off to a blazing hot start. Flowers has hit .407 (11-for-27), with the help of nine hits in his past 19 at-bats. What seems to be even more impressive is his .448 OBP so far.
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Now, it’s only mid-April, and these numbers will certainly come back down to Earth. But given his start, including his second half performance in 2016 during which he slashed .299/.378/.411, throwing up another .270ish BA and a .350+ OBP really doesn’t seem that unlikely for Tyler Flowers.