Atlanta Braves lineup optimization, toying around with RISP

Do the Atlanta Braves have the pieces to be more productive on offense? A simple reshuffling of the lineup could produce more runs.

The bigger issue for the Atlanta Braves is the pitching, we know this, but putting more runs on the board could help the pitching staff. Scoring more runs than the staff allows is, after all, the point.

Grant McAuley recently gave an interesting set of numbers for fans to ponder on. The number of at-bats for Braves starters is a telling story of how a possible lineup reshuffling could be beneficial.

Let me explain what’s being alluded to here …

Freddie Freeman has 13 at-bats where runners have been in scoring position. Thirteen. Only Kurt Suzuki has fewer with eight. That being said, there’s a strong argument that Freeman should possibly be leading off.

It’s suggesting that Freddie should be hitting 1st or 2nd to maximize his productivity potential as far as run production is concerned.

The logic is, by putting him at 2nd, he will get more at-bats per game, in turn, getting him more plate appearances per season. Therefore, by acquiring more plate appearances, Freeman would see more at-bats with runners on in scoring position.

In his 13 at-bats with RISP, Freeman has a slash line of .385/.619/.769/1.388. During those at-bats, he has homered, doubled twice, walked eight times, and has driven in six.

For comparison sake, Ender Inciarte, who has the most on the team with 39 at-bats with RISP, Ender is slashing .256/.310/.436/.745. Inciarte has only driven in 10 while hitting four doubles, one homer, and walking three times.

To help give further explanation how plate appearances shake out over the course of the season, here is a nice graphic to help illustrate the breakdown.

This tweet is a snipping of a graphic from this article over at FanGraphs. Essentially, the 1st and 2nd spots in the lineup see more than 4.5 PA’s per game started.

Granted, this article is geared towards fantasy baseball point projections, but the PA’s per game and per game started can be applied in real life lineups.

That leads me back to the comparisons of Freeman and Inciarte. As the number three hitter, Freddie has had 21 plate appearances with RISP and Inciarte has had 42 plate appearances as the leadoff hitter with RISP.

That’s TWICE as many opportunities with runners in scoring position for Freeman!

Now, imagine Freeman in the leadoff spot, or even number two. His potential to produce runs doubles and a rise in wRC+ should be expected.

Now, I suppose to some of you, perhaps more, this sounds preposterous. Freddie belongs in the three spot as the team’s best hitter.

Atlanta Braves

Two years ago, I might have agreed with you. But this kind of info is useful and it stands to reason why Freddie Freeman, hitting leadoff, could work wonders in the run scoring category.

This kind of information is exactly why Kyle Schwarber began the season hitting leadoff in Chicago for the Cubs. It’s about maximizing potential value and overall run production.

Can we expect this kind of shake up to happen in Atlanta? Probably not. As old school as Brian Snitker is, I highly doubt this kind of maneuvering is attempted. However, it doesn’t mean it can’t work.

Shifting the construct of the lineup could also provide some relief for the pitching rotation. If the lineup was optimized for more run product, or the potential thereof, you theoretically could manufacture more runs than the pitching staff allows.

Thus far, the offense has scored a grand total of 130 runs. The pitching staff has given up 152 earned runs. A difference of 22 runs. Think about it.

If you optimize the lineup by giving more opportunities to guys like Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp, it’s possible to be scoring more runs on offense as pitchers give up on the other side.

Of course, each and every game is individually different. But over the course of a season, scoring more runs than you surrender is, again, the point. To win, you have to score more runs than the other team.

The Braves have not done this. Atlanta is averaging 4.4 runs a game while opponents are averaging 5.5 runs against the Braves. Optimization could swing that negative run differential to the positive side.

Next: Who Is Jeimer Candelario?

Theoretically, instead of being 11-20, this 2017 Atlanta Braves squad possibly could … COULD, be 20-11.

I’m not claiming this as the solution to the current problems. Lord knows there are other issues to manage and figure out. However, at a minimum, this could be an interesting place to start.