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What is the Atlanta Braves’ worst case scenario for 2017?

By Alan Carpenter

Feb 24, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A young fan expresses displeasure with Philadelphia 76ers general manager Bryan Colangelo after the trade of Nerlens Noel before the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Washington Wizards at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 24, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A young fan expresses displeasure with Philadelphia 76ers general manager Bryan Colangelo after the trade of Nerlens Noel before the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Washington Wizards at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sure, they had a big win last night, but the Braves are still on pace to go 65-97 for the year.  Would it really be all bad if the losing continues?

So picture this… the Atlanta Braves continue to have issues with their bench, a bullpen that inconveniently implodes, and starting pitching that’s occasionally iffy.

Say we get around to the 4th of July with a record of perhaps 32-48 or so.  Attendance is lagging, discontent is setting in.  Then what?

The answer has to be… cash in.

With a purpose.

Finishing What Was Started

Look – we know that the veterans acquired this off-season are part of this season, but not part of the future.  So the notion that trades would be in the cards is hardly an original thought.  Heck, even if the Braves were 20-15 right now, this scenario was probably going to happen regardless.

So sure:  we know who’s involved – one or more of the following:

Those not likely on the trading block?

All others we’d consider offers on.

But there’s a wrinkle appearing this year that could completely upend the trade market… the emergence of extra participants.

TEXAS RANGERS.  They might not be deadline sellers… not yet, at least, being just 2 games back in the Wild Card hunt.  But there is a Mets-like fragility to some of their players and things could go South quickly.

CHI SOX.  They were always going to be sellers, though oddly are just a notch behind the Rangers… which might simply raise their trade prices.  Nonetheless, they are rebuilding.

TAMPA BAY.  They are still waiting on Coppy – or somebody – to find the right price for Chris Archer, et al.  That said, they’re also likely a bit surprised to be 19-22 right now.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS.  This is still shocking, and though they’ve improved slightly, the Jays are 17-22 with injuries that continue to plague them.  If the Braves manage to even take 3 of the 4 games in this current series, then that might be the catalyst for them to think about selling big in July.

SAN FRAN GIANTS.  16-24.  Could you have imagined this back in March?

PITTSBURGH PIRATES.  Another tail-spinning team.  Between the Marte suspension and McCutchen’s free-fall, Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington has to be kicking himself for The Trade They Didn’t Make.

SEATTLE MARINERS.  3 under .500 after beating Oakland last night (4th place, 9 games behind Houston) and Jerry DiPoto just can’t help himself.  He has OCD – Obsessive Compulsive Discussions with other GMs.

MIAMI MARLINS.  By the All-Star break they will want to sell the individual players on the roster and not just the entire team.

This doesn’t even include the other teams we expected to be in this position come July:  the Angels, Padres, Royals, Phillies, A’s… and Braves.  The Mets should be on the list, but that’s a team that probably will think that they are ‘just one fix away’.

That’s a lot of potential trade inventory out there.

As suggested, all of this could happen regardless of the Braves’ record in early July, but a tanking team would essentially give John Coppolella the added freedom to prepare for 2018 and beyond.

So here’s where I’m going with all of this…

Strategic Maneuvers

This past off-season, Coppy indicated that the time wasn’t yet right to start trading from his surplus of pitching.

Still, he did so for some deals that sent some arms with promise (Max Povse, for one) to a new venue.  But even so, there’s a lot still available… more than what would be needed to fill a major league rotation.

That time to start using these surplus prospects may be at hand.

Normally, teams are reticent to do prospect-for-prospect trades.  That’s especially true as those prospects get closer to the majors.

More from Tomahawk Take

There are exceptions, but here’s how this could work:

  • Braves trade a veteran to a contender, receiving a couple of their top 10-15 prospects back in return.
  • Braves then turn around with large packages of prospects and trade for controllable players that can fill a long-term need.

There could also be some trades contemplated that are a bit more direct:

Thus the potential exists here for the Braves to actually fill out their club to create a 2018+ contending roster without fully depleting the farm system.

So What Are We Talking About Here?

Obviously, each deal is a 1-on-1 guess with teams that themselves are trying to improve, but here’s a general outline, with some possible targets:

  • PITCHING.  If Folty and Teheran are to stay, then the Braves will ultimately need 3 more starters.  It is unrealistic to add, say 3 of Lucas Sims, Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, or Mike Soroka all in one shot – we saw that play out in 2016.  But we know Coppy covets Chris Archer, so an augmented package might be enough to finally pry him loose.
  • CATCHING.  A bit more interesting since Tyler Flowers continues to mash baseballs (5th in baseball for Catcher’s fWAR) … and he has an option for 2018.  We’ve mentioned Carson Kelly (Cardinals) here, and while that will still be an expensive ‘buy’, he’s blocked by Yadier Molina through 2020… and the #1 catching prospect out there.
  • THIRD BASE.  Is it Ruiz?  Very tough call here.  If the scouts like Jeimer Candelario better (all indications are that they should), then the time to pursue him is upon us.  As previously noted, he’s the best of the third base prospects who are actually available (and 5th overall).  Austin Riley is 8th, but won’t be ready for a while yet.  Ruiz didn’t crack that Top 10… or the Top 20 for the Braves overall.

If Coppy were somehow able to take a floundering team and score players in the mold of a Chris Archer, Carson Kelly, or Jeimer Candelario, then you might as well start etching his name plate for the Executive of the Year trophy.

After that, this off-season then becomes a search for 1 free agent starting pitcher, some “real” bench help (always), some bullpen help (always), and suddenly you have a team worth reckoning with next April… within budget and without destroying the farm to do it (oh, and with a Top 5 draft pick again next June).

Could that be what’s coming?  Is that worth going through one more Summer of modest results?

Next: Batters Up in the Draft?

Frankly, if that’s a scenario that plays out while still winning only 40% of the schedule, then I’d sign up.

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