Could the Atlanta Braves realistically catch Washington?

This team stumbled out of the blocks in 2017, but their engine is chugging along a bit better now and that has at least raised a glimmer of hope. But is that hope justified?

The Atlanta Braves are now sitting at 40-41, 7½ games behind the Nationals.

This is not the same team that started 11-20… and 22-30. Since June 2nd, they are 18-11. Meanwhile, the Nationals have been floundering at 14-15.

So yeah – the Braves gained 4 games during June, with 3 months to go.

Earlier today, Tyler gave us his assessment of things brewing for the Braves in the NL East. I had some further thoughts. Jon Heyman added his succinctly as well:

biggest 1st half surprise? the braves are a half game worst than the cubs (& a half game better than the cardinals)
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 3, 2017

Late this week – after a bout with the World-Leading Houston Astros – Braves and Nats square off head-to-head in a 4-game set to lead into the All-Star break. This week will be a testing gauntlet for the Braves to run through, no doubt.

As of today, the Nats are 3-5 in their last 8 ballgames, and the reason for that largely involves their bullpen. But there are other issues down by the Navy Yards.

CF Adam Eaton (ACL surgery) – will not return in 2017.
SS Trea Turner – virtually the mirror-image wrist injury of the one Freddie Freeman suffered in May.
LF Jayson Werth won’t be back until after the break.

So let’s just throw out a hypothetical scenario here:

Washington gets the Mets for 3 starting tonight. Given the pitching match-ups and injuries, they lose 2 of 3.
Atlanta splits the pair with Houston.
The Braves muscle up and take 3 of 4 in the District – not easy, given the pitching, but it’s been done.

Were that to happen, we’d go into the break like this:

Washington: 50-39
Atlanta: 44-43, six games behind

That’s the Hypothetical… Now the Realistic?

The Braves actually have several advantages that the Nats don’t:

A key member of the offense is about to return – an MVP-level threat, at that. 3 of theirs are out for another week+, 2 for longer than that (see above).
Accordingly, the Braves have already weathered their own injury storm – the Nationals are just getting started.
The Braves have already improved their pitching rotation – by adding Sean Newcomb and subtracting Bartolo Colon. More could be coming.
As much as we’ve made of the Washington bullpen and its issues, it isn’t hyperbole: they have been bad.
- 13 blown saves, 13 losses from their relief corps.
- 5.12 ERA, worst in the majors (Atlanta: 3.98)
- They just signed Francisco Rodriguez… late of the Detroit Tigers (16 blown saves, 16 bullpen losses).
- In June, they were worse: 5.51 ERA, 4 blown saves, 4 losses.

In fairness, the Braves have had their own moments: 5 blown saves in June, but just 1 bullpen loss. Yesterday’s finale vs. the Athletics was an example of a blown save, but it was coupled with a bullpen win.

That said, at a 3.69 ERA in June, Atlanta’s short-stint team is almost 2 runs better than the Nats over that same period.

But They Will Fix the Pen, Right?

Probably. Maybe.

MLB Network Radio on Sirius/XM discussed this last week and had a few points worth sharing:

Nats GM Rizzo tried fairly hard to get relief help over the winter. Mark Melancon chose San Francisco. Kenley Jansen chose less money to stay with the Dodgers.
The ownership group of the Nationals has made their fortune by exercising patience. They are real estate investors. The ‘quick buck’ or ‘quick fix’ isn’t their thing.
This also explains their penchant for deferred-money contracts and holding on to prospects where possible. Given what they spent to get Eaton – and what has happened to him – ownership’s tastes for a quick fix may have been soured further.
As a result, while Rizzo is certainly looking around for help, he may very well be under some restrictive parameters.

Could they get Raisel Iglesias from the Reds (15 saves, 1.59)? Pat Neshek from the Phillies (1 save, 1.39)? Cory Gearrin from the Giants (no saves, 2.08)? Bud Norris from the Angels (seriously: 11 saves, 2.36)? Maybe A.J. Ramos from the Marlins (13 and 3.38).

More from Tomahawk Take

Maybe… but those are the kinds of bullpen arms that might be available without killing their farm system any further. Very few ‘household names’, and instead several “look what I found” seasons underway.

Heck, I didn’t even bother to check to see whether they are even healthy at this moment in time. Rizzo might not either if that lowers his price.

So while Coppy is always on the prowl, Mike Rizzo is shopping the bargain aisles. Personally, I like that combination.

So even if the “most likely” scenario happens – the Nationals win the NL East again – their playoff experience could once again be short-lived, as the bullpen won’t be able to stand against that competition.

Next: I'm Not Even the Most Optimistic One Here

A lot of things would have to go right from here to get the Braves into this race, but in the short term, there are reasons to think this could get more interesting.

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