Could the Atlanta Braves trade Julio Teheran?

Trade talks are not yet simmering at this point, but after the All-Star break, expect the rumors to explode. Jon Heyman raises an early flag about a key Braves’ asset.

Could the Atlanta Braves be listening to offers for Julio Teheran? That’s the speculation raised by Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports today.

Heyman has no indication of a response from the Braves, but he does point out that there’s been no indication from Coppy that he wouldn’t at least consider a deal for the 26-year-old right-hander. That silence – for what it’s worth – is a change from last year.

Heyman does say this, however:

"“Teams in need of starting pitchers, including the Astros, have been calling the Atlanta Braves about Teheran, as they search for alternatives to the obvious top available duo of Quintana and Gray.”"

Heyman also mentions that the pitching supply could be limited this July, with some names previously bandied about – Archer, Cole, Vargas, Santana, et al – likely out of the discussion.

That could still mean a premium return for Teheran – despite his issues this season.

Home, Sour Home

Ironically, the very reason that the Braves wanted to keep Teheran last year might be the reason that gets him traded this year: SunTrust Park.

The Braves certainly wanted to have Teheran around to help usher in the new digs in Cobb County, but a funny thing happened upon arrival: (a) Teheran didn’t get the Atlanta Opening Day start due to the schedule; and (b) the place has turned into a House of Horrors for him.

Heyman looked up those stats first, so I opted to quote him:

"“…he’s 6-6 with a 5.14 ERA but 5-0 with a 2.88 ERA on the road and 1-5 with a 7.58 ERA at SunTrust”"

There was a glimmer of hope on June 9th, when Teheran gave up just 1 run to the Mets at home over six innings. However, that’s been followed up with outings yielding 4 (3 earned) and 7 against the Giants and Brewers.

Heyman suggests that a ‘change of scenery’ could be in order. While it might be a bit early to declare that, a change of venue does seem appropriate.

So Who Makes Sense and What are We Looking at Here?

Heyman mentioned the Astros specifically, so let’s start there.

The Astros are in a peculiar situation. They more-or-less have pitching. Their rotation includes Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr, Brad Peacock, Michael Fires, and David Paulino. There’s also Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh, and last night’s (very good) starter Joe Musgrove.

However, Keuchel is on the DL (will be back soon) and both Morton and McHugh are already on the rehab circuit.

So… why are they interested?

Well, just yesterday morning, we discussed the idea that teams are demanding trade pieces with control – not being willing to cede their prospects for rental opportunities.

It’s tough to give away a single top prospect for 2 months of this season alone. It’s actually much more palatable to give away the same prospect plus 2-4 other lower level minor leaguers to gain control of your target guy for multiple years.

Julio Teheran has been durable and is under cheap team control through 2020 – three more seasons. He will give you innings for years. Heck, even if he averaged a 4.50-5.00 ERA for Houston, that’s still okay, since (as we saw) they will simply bludgeon the other team to death anyway.

All that said, this “interest” from Houston could be precautionary depending on the actual health of those 3 starters. If even one of them has a relapse, then Houston could certainly be calling.

As for those other names above:

Keuchel: one more year of control (2018)
Morton: same
McHugh: Arb1, so free agent after 2019

That’s 3 of their better pitchers. Teheran could be added for insurance purposes, or the future (to keep their ‘window’ open), or… to keep others from getting him.

At least that’s the best guess here. Despite persistent talk linking the Astros with a pursuit of Jose Quintana, It would seem that others would have a stronger need. However, you would think that Atlanta would price Teheran more cheaply than the tag the White Sox has put on Quintana.

The Braves seem to match up well in a trade deal with Houston – their farm system has pitching and outfield hitting. In fact, the whole organization has enough outfielders that they could trade 2 and not miss a beat. They also have a catcher or two, but might be inclined to keep them due to the ages of Brian McCann and Evan Gattis.

In my estimation – given the market – Teheran would fetch roughly 2 prospects of Houston’s top 5 (a starting pitcher and an outfielder – but not their top 2, that’s probably Quintana territory), another around the #10 ranking, plus one more down the list as a ‘wild card’ with significant upside potential. I would imagine something similar for other teams.

Other Possibilities?

More from Tomahawk Take

The Yankees. Possible – especially for the future. This is a team definitely looking for longer term solutions.

Cleveland. Teheran fullfills a budget purpose for them in addition to a need for this season. They want to extend their own window, for sure.

The Royals. Don’t look now (okay – look anyway), but Kansas City is only a half game out of first place in the AL Central. They are said to be seeking both kinds of pitching help, though Jaime Garcia could be a better fit.

Minnesota. See the comments about Cleveland. Not real likely, but we’ll see.

The Cubs. Maybe, though for some reason the buzz this week is about Justin Verlander.

Milwaukee. Same boat as the Royals – might not be thinking longer term, but like the Twins, are probably surprised as anyone to be where they are.

So who would replace Teheran for Atlanta if he were dealt? Several short-term possibilities exist without the organization, including Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Andrew Albers, and Kris Medlen.

But you don’t really think that Coppy would send Teheran out without having a backup plan, do you?

Next: The Astros Doubled Down

Teheran gets to face the Nationals on Saturday in his last appearance before the break. That could be an important outing – it could solidify him as a top option in starting pitching trade market. The timing could be right, too.

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