Atlanta Braves post season reality check
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves series against the Cubs started well enough with a walk-off win genuinely possible; the second game wasn’t as good and today they finished the sweep. Manager Brian Snitker and seems to be operating under the notion the Braves can make a post season run but can they?
Readers know I don’t believe the Atlanta Braves are a post season team. In my view ending the season at the 500 mark would be a success; that’s considered optimistic by many. This isn’t about my projections I want to see how if you see a way that the Braves make it to the post season. So I’ll lay out the season ahead and let you tell me what you expect to happen.
The story so far
As I write the Atlanta Braves are 45-48 and not catching the Nationals in the NL East. Since the May 15th the Braves are 32-26 and reached the 500 mark last Sunday when they completed a sweep of the Diamondbacks.
Atlanta Braves
It was a short visit as the Cubs reminded us that they were defending World Series Champs with as sweep.
The Nationals and Dodgers are running away with their divisions while the Brewers and Cubs and fighting over the NL Central. Fangraphs predicts the following finishes for the other challengers like this.
- NL Central – Cubs 87-75, Brewers 83-79
- NL West – Diamondbacks 91-71, Rockies 87- 75
- NL East – Mets 78-84, Braves 77-85
I consider the Mets projection very optimistic but that’s another story. Their projections were made before trades started to flow so they have an excuse if they need one.
Their numbers suggest that getting to the post season requires winning at least 88 games; can the Braves get there?
The schedule
Jeff Sullivan’s Fangraphs post has a nice little strength of schedule graph that really tells the story better than words. Above the line is easier than below it.
Things look easier for the Nationals, Dodgers, Rockies and Cubs than they do for the Brewers. The Rockies have the hardest row to hoe.
The Braves are better off that the Diamondbacks and Padres because they live i the NL West. The Reds lock up with the Dodgers, Yankees, Diamondbacks twice, Indians, Red Sox, Cubs twice, Pirates twice, Cardinals twice, and Brewers three times as well as lesser teams like the Braves.
How about those Braves
The Braves are what we are concerned with so without further adieu here’s the upcoming schedule and my projection of wins.
| Team | Games | Projected Wins |
| Dodgers in LA | 4 | 1 |
| Diamondbacks in Phoenix | 3 | 1 |
| Phillies in Philly | 3 | 2 |
| Dodgers in Atlanta | 3 | 1 |
| Marlins in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Phillies in Atlanta | 2 | 2 |
| Cardinals in St Louis | 3 | 2 |
| Rockies in Colorado | 4 | 1 |
| Reds I Cincinnati | 3 | 2 |
| Mariners in Atlanta | 3 | 1 |
| Rockies in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Phillies In Philly | 3 | 2 |
| Cubs at Wrigley | 4 | 1 |
| Rangers in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Marlins in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Nationals in DC | 3 | 1 |
| Mets in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Nationals in Atlanta | 3 | 1 |
| Phillies in Atlanta | 3 | 2 |
| Mets in NY (includes a DH) | 4 | 2 |
| Marlins in Miami | 4 | 2 |
| Total | 67 | 34 |
This scenario gives up 34 wins which would see us finish with 79 wins, tow more than Fangraphs but nine short of the 88 needed. The only sweep I projected was one two game series. It’s extremely hard to sweep a team, particularly on the road.
Next: The Dodgers are next - Who, me worry?
We could pick up some games if other teams collapse but they will collapse against other teams as well so it would likely even out.
Now it’s your turn, vote in the poll and let us know what you think. I’ll keep the poll open until 9 P.M. eastern time Thursday.
Update: The link will take you to a new tab/window where you can vote. Please comment here after you vote rather than on the poll page.
Where will the Atlanta Braves Finish
You may of course just tell us in comments. I apologize for the failure of the tool, it’s beyond my control. Fred