3 more steals? Atlanta Braves’ Ronald Acuna could have trouble getting there

Brian Snitker was giving his team some extra rest this weekend, but for Acuña’s 40-40 pursuit, the best chances for 3 more steals may now be gone.

You’d think that 3 more steals to reach 40 for the season would not be that big a deal.  However, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. may be rapidly running out of chances.

The Giants series may have been his best opportunity over this final week-ish of the season, but as things evolved, he never even got a steal attempt.

• Friday:  set aside a chance to get one – or more – due to circumstances, likely including the score in favor of Atlanta.
• Saturday:  only reached base once – that via a walk, but with 2 runners already on ahead of him.
• Sunday:  got the day off.

The 4 catchers that the Giants have employed this season have combined to throw out 33 of 117 would-be base thieves on the year.

The vast majority of these came with Buster Posey behind the dish – his catch rate is nearly 33%.  But he played the Saturday game while Stephen Vogt handled the Friday contest.

Vogt has only stopped 6 of 32 runners… that may have been Acuña’s best chance.

The Royals are Next

So now it’s the Royals on the road for the next 2 games on Tuesday and Wednesday… and the challenge may be beginning.

The Royals chiefly have been going with Meibrys Viloria in harness, with Nick Dini providing relief for him.

Both are pretty stingy in allowing steals, and it’s likely telling as well that there haven’t been that many attempts against any of the four catchers that KC have used this season.

Here’s the specific numbers for Viloria and Dini (through Saturday’s games):

• Viloria:  317.2 innings; 21 attempts, 9 caught (43%)
• Dini:  126.2 innings;  10 attempts, 4 caught (40%)

Those are pretty stout numbers.

The scheduled pitchers (and almost by definition, things can certainly change during this week of the season) for the Royals against the Braves this week are Danny Duffy and Mike Leake Montgomery.  (thanks for correction!)

Turns out the news doesn’t get any better here.

• Duffy has allowed just 13 successful steals while he’s been pitching… in the 618 innings he threw between 2015 and 2018.
• Montgomery has allowed 17 over the same time period.

In other words, Acuña has his work cut out for him.

On top of that, of course, he has to reach base in the first place.  Acuña is 3 for 5 vs. Mongomery, and he did get on twice against Duffy – via a walk and by being hit with a pitch.

He did not try to steal in those games vs. KC.

Let’s see about New York…

Back to Citi Field

The same pitcher-scheduling disclaimer applies for the Mets series – the regular season’s final 3 games – but here are the current starting pitchers currently expected:

• Marcus Stroman
• Steven Matz
• Noah Syndergaard

If all goes according to normalcy, we could probably expect the catching duties to be split:  Wilson Ramos getting the 1st two games, and then Tomas Nido the 3rd.. with Thor.

Turns out that neither Met catcher is particularly adept at throwing out base-runners… 2 of 29 for Nido and 16 of 108 for Ramos.

Note the vastly higher attempt rates as opposed to the KC catchers.

So this series should be a much more favorable matchup for Ronald Acuña’s pursuit of a 40-40 season… if he can get on base… and then get 3 steal opportunities.

Here’s his (small sample size) numbers against these starters:

• STROMAN:  0 for 5 (.000) with a walk and 3 strikeouts
• MATZ:  3 for 12 (.250) with a walk and 3 strikeouts
• SYNDERGAARD:   4 for 10 (.400) with 3 strikeouts

So Acuña’s best shot?  The very last game… and that’s only if Brian Snitker allows him to play in it.  It’s a combination of a pitcher he’s handled well and a catcher that stops… virtually no one.

After the Sunday finale, Atlanta will fly home and then wait 3 days for their first playoff game (Thursday the 3rd), so extra rest isn’t going to be necessary.

In general, though, he’ll likely have to get on base 5 or 6 times just to be able to make even 3 steal attempts, since circumstances often determine his ability to do so.

For all of these reasons, 3 steals is going to be a challenge for Ronald Acuña… but he’s liable to give it a shot.  You only get so many attempts to make history.