nine-inning game where a team scored at least 9 runs while striking out at least 16 times:

Apr 3, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) watches his double driving in three runs against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Since 1916, there have been four games in total fitting those standards, including last night’s game.  As you can see, the 39 PA was by far the fewest of the group, so that K rate is really high.  The Braves only hit 17 fair balls, with 9 as hits, 3 leaving the park.  Even with the high talent level in this lineup, you can’t expect a .429 BABIP and a 42.9% HR/FB% every night.

This is the effect of the strikeout paradox currently in the major leagues.  There is no correlation between a hitter’s production level and their K%, but there is a fair amount of correlation for pitchers.  Hitters aren’t afraid to strike out, but pitchers are geared towards doing so, explaining the constant rise in K% since 2005.  It isn’t showing any signs of reversing right now, so when do you think K% will finally level off?

NL East

Washington
Atlanta*
New York
Philadelphia
Miami

February 22, 2013; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel (46) throws a pitch in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers during spring training at Disney Wide World of Sports complex, Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Nationals are the clear favorite to repeat as the division winners, as their tremendous rotation and deep lineup have 95-100 wins written all over it.  The Braves have a deep lineup of their own, but a shallow, middling rotation keeps them in the low 90′s again this year.  The Mets have a few good arms for their rotation, while their lineup should be solid in the middle, surprising teams with 80-82 wins.  The Phillies have not reloaded at all, so another 80-82 win season is all I can see out of them.  The Marlins have one star, a couple decent role players, and about 55-60 wins over the summer.

NL Central

St. Louis
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Chicago

The Cardinals have all the bats and big young arms to win 90-92 games, as their farm system keeps replenishing the big league club with top prospects.  The Reds are bound to see some regression from the rotation, and the offense had a few over-achievers last year, ending right around 90 wins.  Milwaukee might have the best position player core in the National League, but their very thin rotation will hold them at 84-86 wins.  Pittsburgh has one hitter and not much on the mound, leaving them still stuck around 75 wins.  The Cubs are in full-fledged rebuilding mode, probably bound for another 70-win season.

NL West

San Francisco
Los Angeles*
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado

A complete repeat of last season’s standings, the defending Champion Giants have the rotation and solid core to win 91-93 games.  The Dodgers may have the highest payroll in the majors, but they still have holes in the rotation and lineup, just missing out on the division title.  Arizona overhauled their roster, but their overall talent level is still at 83-85 wins.  San Diego was a much improved team in the second half, but a lack of great pitchers in the rotation limits their potential, likely falling in the upper-70′s for wins.  Colorado is completely starting over, as they have a couple stars, but no other supporting cast, likely finishing around 65 wins.

Playoffs

Atlanta def. Los Angeles in Wild Card Game
Atlanta def. Washington
Atlanta def. St. Louis in NLCS
Atlanta def. Detroit in WS

Atlanta takes the long road, but it can end in happy fashion.  The Dodgers have to use Kershaw to make the playoffs, so the Braves are able to knock off the new Yankees in the dreaded Wild Card Game.  Strasburg continues his struggles against the Braves in the Division Series, able to knock off the top seed.  Injuries derail the Cardinals by the time they reach the NLCS, leaving the Braves with a path to the majors.  In the World Series, Detroit’s righties have trouble shutting down the Braves left-handed lineup, leading Atlanta to their second title in Atlanta.

NL MVP

1.  Joey Votto
2.  Andrew McCutchen
3.  Justin Upton

March 2, 2013; Glendale, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) at bat against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Votto was on his way to an MVP season until a knee injury forced him out of action, then limited his power after he returned.  Despite the late “struggles,” he hit .337/.474/.567 last season, as his 177 wRC+ was 11 points higher than Cabrera and Trout.  The 29-year-old Red is tearing the cover off the ball this spring, and he looks poised to add another MVP trophy to his mantle.

McCutchen looks to build off his 3rd place finish in the MVP race last year, though his .375 BABIP will be tough to repeat.  The biggest thing working against him is that the Pirates are still probably the fourth-best team in their division, which always skews the voters’ thoughts.  His spring hasn’t been great, but a .200 BABIP is the main culprit, so expect more of the same from the MLB The Show coverman.

Upton will be hitting in the middle of a deep Braves lineup, bound to run up his old-school stats, driving in runs and scoring plenty too.  His power has re-awakened this spring, though his plate discipline has been a bit sketchy.  He may not be the most stable player production-wise, but he should be in a great situation to thrive this season.

Just missing:  Buster Posey, Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Yadier Molina

NL Cy Young Award

1.  Stephen Strasburg
2.  Clayton Kershaw
3.  Cliff Lee

March 22, 2013; Viera, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) delivers a pitch against the Detroit Tigers during the spring training game at Space Coast Stadium. Detroit defeated Washington 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

While he may not amass the most innings this season, Strasburg is the most dominating pitcher in the league.  He was the only starting pitcher to strike out 30% of hitters faced last season, with no other NL pitcher within 5% of his mark.  A fairly flat fastball is the only weakness for the Nationals ace, as this year could be the start of many CYAs in his career.

Kershaw may have been the best pitcher in the NL last year, losing out to R.A. Dickey due to a low win total.  The Dodgers lefty just turned 25 and he’s had four straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA.  His hip was a concern at the end of last year, but it looks like that has subsided, putting him back into automatic CYA contention.

Another pitcher who suffered from a lack of run support, Lee is still one of the best pitchers in the league.  At 34 years old, the Phillies lefty is the closest thing to a robot, using perfect mechanics to achieve near-perfect command on four pitches.  He doesn’t walk anyone and strikes out many, a great recipe for success.

Just Missing:  Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain

NL Rookie of the Year

1.  Julio Teheran
2.  Jedd Gyorko
3.  Shelby Miller

March 17, 2013; Port St Lucie, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran (49) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets in the spring training game at Tradition Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

It may be a couple years later than expected, but Teheran should show what made him such a prized prospect.  He has absolutely dominated hitters this spring to the tune of a 1.04 ERA and a 0.615 WHIP.  He’s only allowed a .105 BABIP, which is absolutely silly, but his FIP below 3.00 shows some great skills starting to shine.

One of our writers’ favorite prospects, Gyorko will have a chance to start Opening Day at 3B for the Padres with Chase Headley‘s injury. Gyorko doesn’t have any big strength, aside from possibly a high LD rate, but his overall solid skills should lead to some good numbers in a fairly thin class.

Miller looked great in a September callup for the Cardinals last season, and he’s latched onto the 5th spot in the rotation.  He has never had problems getting whiffs and his control hasn’t been much below average.  Last year’s inflated ERA was primarily due to the home run ball, so that number should regress closer to normal, leaving him with a good chance at above-average numbers this season.

Just Missing:  Nolan Arenado (COL), Adam Eaton (ARI), Trevor Rosenthal (STL)

NL Gold Gloves

C-  Yadier Molina
1B-  Adrian Gonzalez
2B-  Danny Espinosa
3B-  Chase Headley
SS-  Andrelton Simmons
LF-  Bryce Harper
CF-  Ben Revere
RF-  Jason Heyward

NL Silver Sluggers

C-  Buster Posey
1B-  Joey Votto
2B-  Chase Utley
3B-  David Wright
SS-  Troy Tulowitzki
LF-  Ryan Braun
CF-  Andrew McCutchen
RF-  Giancarlo Stanton

It will be fun to see how poorly my predictions turn out, and I’d love to hear any differing opinions on any of the awards.