Former Giants pitcher Brian Wilson seen here in a cable car during the World Series victory parade will pitch for someone this year, Will it be the Braves?. PhotoCredit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Since the news of Eric O’Flaherty’s UCL tear broke yesterday fans have wondered whether veteran closer and TJ surgery alumni Brian Wilson might be on the Braves radar. The answer is probably yes, he along with others who might be willing to take a short term deal to prove their health and ability are certainly on that radar. The details are more complicated.

Backstory – Who Is Brian Wilson?

Brian Wilson (@BrianWilson38 on Twitter)  pitched for Louisiana State University until his junior season when he injured had his first TJ surgery. The Giants drafted him in 2003 and he moved quickly through their system reaching San Francisco  in 2006. He was up and down that year posting a 5.40 ERA and a 1.767 WHIP.  He started 2007 in the minors but by the end of the year he had become Giants’ closer saving six games with one blown save.

In 2008 he racked up 41 saves in 2008 but had a 4.62 ERA and a 1.444 WHIP. That ERA dropped In 2009 to 2.74 and the WHIP dropped to 1.203 but he blew seven of his 45 save opportunities. he improved again in 2010, leading the NL with 48 saves to go with a 3-3 record, a 1.179WHIP  and a 1.81 ERA. He added six more save and a win in the post season and Braves fans will sadly vouch for.

Wilson was again in the top three in saves with 36 in the first five months of 2011 but elbow issues ended his season in August. He tried to avoid a second TJ surgery by rehabbing the elbow but appeared in only two games in 2012 before having the operation and missed the rest of the season.  He was ever present on the Giants bench as they marched towards another World Series and while his saves total didn’t grow his beard did to almost comic proportions. The Giants fans embraced it and his other eccentricities like:

1. Wearing a pair of orange cleats so bright Marlins manager Edwin Rodríguez complained to MLB and they fined Wilson  $1,000 then used a magic marker to color half of the shoes black.
2. Told Jim Rome in an ESPN interview that he had become a certified ninja in a dream. He said  that although it takes a lifetime to achieve such things in a dream that’s only 12 minutes.
3. Asked why his beard kept getting noticeably darker and said it was because they played a lot of day games and the beard was tanning in.
4. Frequently references to “The Machine” from the movie 8mm and appeared to get a phone call from it during another Jim Rome interview pulling a leather BDSM mask from his pocket and claiming it belonged to the Machine.

Amid all of his publicity stunts however Wilson remains a devout Christian and  gives freely of his time and resources within the community. On Memorial day 2011 Wilson endowed two scholarships for LSU ROTC in memory of his father, an Air Force veteran who died of cancer when Wilson was 17. But back to baseball.

In April 2012 Wilson said he expected to be back with the Giants in 2013.  The Giants did not exercise their $6.8M option and instead nontendered him. The enigmatic Wilson was upset or perhaps not. Since that time he’s made statements that can be interpreted pretty much as you’d like to interpret them. After being released by the Giants and workouts for a couple of teams indicated he wasn’t ready, he said he would not work out for anyone until he was sure he was completely healthy. Last week Brian Sabean was asked by Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com whether he had been in contact with Wilson. Sabean said he hasn’t been in touch with him lately and doesn’t know how Wilson is throwing although he has heard that his former closer is “working out like a fiend” and is “going to try to showcase himself over the All-Star break or thereabouts.”

That’s A Wrap

I doubt Wilson is ready now and as such he’s not an immediate option. If he does workout he’ll likely do it in Brian Wilsonesque style like renting Radio City Music Hall and inviting teams he’s interested in signing for or something like that. Speaking of the Yankees he recently said he would never sign with the Yankees. . .or did he? You can watch the video and decide for yourself at that TMZ link. Please note that the beard seems thicker than ever, darker too. Perhaps he’s been tanning it a lot lately.   In any event his style is likely contradictory to the “Braves Way.” Wilson will not shave that beard to please anyone except Brian Wilson nor will he mitigate his persona to please any team.  While his talent is certainly desirable the rest of him just doesn’t fit, Peter Moylan was about as off center as the Braves can accept.  Compared to Wilson Pete is a monk.  Can you really see this Brian Wilson on the Braves team bus?

Apr 10, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis (24) connects for a three run homer in the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

As we went into the last night’s game with the Marlins, Evan Gattis has settled into the four hole and has a slash of .368/.400/.737/1.137 leading all National League rookies. And that my friends poses a problem for Frank Wren, Fredi Gonzalez and crew.

A Good Problem

So Gattis is smoking hot, what’s the problem? The problem is Brian McCann is due back next week by the KC series and with the 25 man roster full someone has to go. But who? The uniformed amongst fandom want to send Gerald Laird down but of course that can’t be done. In fact the whole bench is in a similar situation; none save Gattis have options left, all except Gattis would have to clear waivers and none of them will. (For a quick look at how options work click here.) That leaves a trade

First of all the obvious should be said, Brian McCann won’t be traded unless we get an offer we can’t refuse. Some forget what a potent bat he has when he isn’t hurt which he has been since Augusts of 2011. Onward to the bench…  Ramiro Pena would be in demand by the Cardinals and Dodgers to name just two.   Reed Johnson’s a free agent signing and like Laird can’t be traded without their permission until after June first. Even if they agree to a trade the Braves would have to ask MLB for permission to do it before June 1.  Jordan Schafer could be in demand by teams like the Mets, Marlins, Phillies;  even the Rays might find room for him.  So, who goes?

If It Were I. . .

Which it isn’t of course, Schafer would be the trade bait. he’s had a good game tonight – 4-5 with two runs scored including a bunt single and double that would have been a homer in most ballparks.  I’d want him out of the division of course and I wouldn’t be that picky about who I got back as long as he had options. That’s me, there’s a poll here so you can vote on it.

 That’s a Wrap

As I was writing this Gattis (2-4 3 RBI) was hitting his second homer in two days into the Clevelander night club. That was followed just a git later by a 459 foot bomb by Juan Francisco (3-4 3 RBI).  Schafer laid down a lovely drag bunt to get on in front of Gattis and later doubled, a ball that probably a homer in most ballparks.  So the Atlanta Bomb Squad (those option on the Fox Sports site are just awful) continues to deliver even when Justin Upton takes a night off from losing baseballs.     Tuesday night Pena made two defensive plays at third that made everyone’s eyes water after playing a pretty good shortstop while Andrelton Simmons was out. He’s also had some key RBI hits late in games. Laird is the vet you keep around because he can teach and play regularly for a couple of weeks if needed. Reed Johnson has a couple of good at bats and is very good off the bench though not a home run threat.  I have no idea what the answer will be but whatever it is someone’s gotta go.

Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco fought the battle for third base to a draw this spring. Graphic Credit: Fred Owens Original Photo Credit Kim Klement and Daniel Shirley USA Today Sports

The battle for the Braves starting third base job looks like ending in a draw as Skipper Fredi Gonzalez said Friday he’ll likely platoon Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco.

The Braves entered spring training with few questions left to be answered. The outfield is set as are first, second, short and in reality the rotation as Julio Teheran was never seriously challenged by Sean Gilmartin.  The only questions were bench bats and at third base.

No Ties In Baseball

Well except for that one All-Star game and in spring training.  Yet the Braves third base battle failed to produce a winner and Friday Gonzalez declared it a draw.

A Quick Recap

Chris Johnson entered the competition as a former number one pick with three years major league experience, questionable defense and for some reason a media expectation that he was the third baseman after coming over as part of the Justin Upton trade. Juan Francisco was known for enormous power an erratic arm and lots of strikeouts – even though he and Johnson strike out at roughly the same rate. With just a few days left before the season starts their spring numbers are almost dead even.

While Johnson has more games that Francisco he also has at least three starts at first base and while I can’t find an innings total anywhere Francisco seems to have just a few more at third. This is likely due to the plan to use Johnson as a backup to Freddie Freeman at first base. Even numbers, one RH bat and one LH bat, it’s a perfect opportunity to platoon and get the best of both sides. Except well it isn’t.

Splits

Chris Johnson hits RH pitchers better than he hits lefties; a reverse split.  When you hear the announcers and talking heads talk about left/right splits they say that Francisco and Johnson are about  even.  In searching for research on the effectiveness of the platoon I came upon a a pair of articles by  Bojan Koprivica over at the Hardball times – Platooning: the meaning of mean (Part 1) and  Platooning: The value for a team (Part 2) – where he concluded that:

. . .a somewhat educated estimate is that by aggressively matching up a lineup—provided you have the players to do so—a team stands to gain about one to one-and-a-half additional wins per season. (italics and emphasis added)

If in fact Johnson and Francisco are about even or close to even  is the potential for perhaps,maybe, possibly but imprecisely quantifiable chance of winning one game a year worth it?

Last year the Braves faced R/L starting splits of 62.3% RH and used a platoon 108 times for a net gain of 4.5 runs; just under 1/2 a game if, as most assume, it takes 10 added runs to equal one more win. Assuming similar numbers this year, a straight platoon means Francisco starts 62% of the games.  If you give Freddie Freeman a day off that would presumably be against a left handed pitcher increasing Francisco’s games by six or eight to 65%. I can’t find any split stats for spring training but I’ve watched Francisco against left handed pitchers this year and he’s been at least 1-4 in those games. Johnson has been about the same.

According to the Hardball Times article in 2012 the Mets used a platoon most often – 535 times – followed by Oakland – 464 times. He says his numbers are probably conservative and platooning could be worth more than one to one and one-half wins a year he projects and certainly one or two wins can be the difference, it was for Oakland last year. The teams that reached that a number high enough to gain a win platooned “aggressively.” The numbers for Francisco and Johnson suggest that the difference between them is so close it’s likely a platoon would make no difference at all; the men are simply too much alike. That being the case, why platoon?

That’s A Wrap

There are reasons to choose Francisco and a case can be made for Johnson as well. But there is little to support using a platoon. Managers get paid for making the hard decisions and this calls for a hard decision. If I were Gonzalez I’d start Francisco at third and use Johnson off the bench, his the playing time at first base suggests that Gonzalez has at least considered that and Johnson fits the bench role better than Francisco. Gonzalez may favor Johnson instead.   A platoon ducks the decision and will eventually fail.  The Skipper needs to make a choice not duck it.   What would you do?