The Marlins come to Atlanta tomorrow for one of the newish two day miniseries no one really likes. After a slow start, the Marlins have been hot lately pushing themselves up the standings toward the surprising but fading Mets. The Fish have always been a pain in the Braves backside and this year they’ve moved to Miami, opened a new ballpark, spent money to improve the roster and brought in a personality to manage the team.

The Marlins have won 8 of their last 11 games and have a tough lineup from Jose Reyes at the top to John Buck at bottom. Wednesday they send another of their new signings to mound when Mark Buehrle squares off against Mike Minor. In his last two starts Florida’s new lefty is 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and a 1.085 WHIP. Few everyday Braves players have a history against him and most of it was a few years ago.

Minor started well but has struggled a bit of late. If he can return to earlier form this game could be a quick one and b0th he and Buehrle work very quickly. I recommend he watch Buehrle work as Minor has similar stuff, he could do worse than have a career like that of Buehrle.

On Thursday The Marlins send Ricky Nolasco out to face the Major leagues new ERA leader Brandon Beachy. Nolasco’s an extremely talented pitcher but prior to this year never found the consistency to make him a top of the rotation guy. he started the year very well and still has a 3.65 ERA on the year in spite of being manhandled In his last start against the Mets when he lasted 4 2/3 innings, gave up 6 runs on 9 hits and walked 3. It’s hard to know which Nolasco we will see. Braves hitter however have enjoyed facing him in the past as the table below shows.

Brandon Beachy has improved with every outing this year. While his K rate is down he’s pitching a little more and throwing a little less each game. As I said earlier, Beachy’s 1.60 ERA leads the majors after the Braves sent Johnny Cueto to his room early in last night’s game. Beachy is rounding into a top of the rotation guy and I look for that to continue against the Fish.

Friendly Enemies

In order to get a view from the other side I spoke with Ehsan Kassim over at Marlin Maniac. He answered a few questions I had about the Marlins and I returned the favor for our Braves. You can find his half of our chat over at Marlin Maniac and I’m sure you’ll let me know where I erred.

You guys stumbled out the gate like we did but a lot of that was due to injury to LoMo and Stanton (knees) as I understand it. Is everyone (starters) fit these days? I saw Hanley wearing a compression sleeve last night.
Omar Infante‘s hamstring is still not 100% and Logan Morrison is still battling his knee issues. That is as far as I can tell you about the Marlins injury woes. Unlike last season, the team has managed to stay relatively healthy, which has been great for our pitching staff, as we have the talent to match-up with anyone in the division. Hanley Ramirez has looked a lot better this season, although his numbers have not exactly indicated that early on. Jose Reyes has avoided the injury bug, as has Josh Johnson, which is amazing news for the team. The team is as healthy as they will be all season, which is why it is disappointing to be losing some of the games that we have been losing.

With Heath Bell having issues sealing the deal, what’s the state of your bullpen, are their defined roles or is Ozzie winging it?

Never was a big fan of the Heath Bell signing. We overpaid for the most overrated position in all of baseball. Bell has been a shell of himself, as he has shown no control and walks the bases loaded every time he is out there, it seems. Right now, Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins front office are stuck on making Bell work. They will give him as many opportunities to keep that role as they can.

It does seem to me that Ozzie is winging his bullpen situation. Our best reliever would have to be Steve Cishek. He has been excellent thus far in his MLB career. I am in the boat that suggested that he should have been the Marlins closer outright heading into this season. That did not happen, obviously.

Mike Dunn has been a major disappointment and continues to help the Braves make the Uggla trade look good. If the Marlins acquire a reliable left handed arm soon, I expect Dunn to spend the rest of the season in the minors. The rest of the Marlins rotation has been exceptional. Edward Mujica has had a few up and down outings, but has seemed to correct himself his last few times out. For the most part, the relievers seem to have a set role, just Mujica and Cishek are moved around. I personally have issues with that. Cishek is our best reliever and I feel if he only pitched the ninth, he would be wasted. Ozzie does the smart thing rather, and usually brings Cishek in a tough situation where the Marlins need their best arm out there.

We get Buehrle and Nolasco during this mini-series. What’s the scoop on these guys heading into it, Hot, Warm or Frigid?
Mark Buehrle has given the Marlins a quality start 6 of the 7 times he has been out there. Buehrle does not have the best stuff on the Marlins staff, but he does have the most consistent game. I enjoy watching him pitch, as he works quickly and the game moves along much smoother. Two starts ago, Buehrle hurled a complete game for the Marlins and has a nice sparkling 2.81 ERA thus far. He like over the course of his career, is outperforming his FIP and xFIP. Buehrle has pitched well against the Braves in his 14 career innings against them, with a 3.21 ERA in 21 innings. Left handers always seem to give the Braves some problems, so I can see Buehrle having a very strong start against the Braves.

Ricky Nolasco has finally been pitching to his capabilities this season. Forever, we analytical folks have wondered when Ricky would live up to his FIP and xFIP numbers, it has not happened until this season. Ricky Nolasco will be aiming for the Marlins all-time wins record in this game. He is currently tied with Dontrelle Willis with 68. Nolasco had been pitching really well, up until his last time out. Nolasco gave up six runs on nine hits in a loss to the Mets. That by far was the worst start of the season for Nolasco. Over the past few seasons, Marlins fans have learned to deal with hot Ricky and cold Ricky. We should know within the first few batters how Nolasco will fare. For his career, Nolasco has a 4.80 career ERA against the Braves in 110+ innings. Nolasco has also had some success against the Braves, striking out 18 hitters a few years ago. It will be very interesting to see which Ricky shows up for the Marlins, especially in a game where runs will be hard to score for the Marlins against Beachy.

You’ve had a month and a half with Ozzie at the helm – well minus the suspension – what are your impressions of him not that you get to watch him up close?
Ozzie Guillen has done a decent job of managing the Marlins so far, and by decent, I mean that he has not screwed much up, yet. As long as the team is winning and Ozzie is not the cause of the Marlins problems, I have no issues with anything he says or does. Yes, his Castro comments were out of line, but so were the media reports that contorted what the manager actually said and made it seem worse then it really was, but that is what journalist (sic) has become, sadly.

Guillen is a loose-manager and he keeps the players loose, but at the same time, he will hold the players accountable if they mess up, but at the same time, he will take the blame when it comes to the media. My impression early on is that the Marlins players love playing for Ozzie and I can see why. He is a fun-loving manager that loves to enjoy the game. Ozzie has an aggressive baseball attitude and that is something I enjoy.  There are of course times I yell at my TV set, wondering what the hell Ozzie is doing, but I would take Ozzie Guillen over Fredi Gonzalez any day of the week.

What’s surprised you most about the team this year?
This answer to this question has to be Carlos Zambrano. Yes, Omar Infante has been a nice surprise, but he in reality is a better player then most give him credit for. Anibal Sanchez has been among one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this season, but this is something I saw coming as well. Heath Bell’s decline should come as no surprise to anyone with common sense, as his K rate has been dropping for a while now. Josh Johnson has been a disappointment, but he has turned it around as of late and seems to be falling into where he should be. It seems the superstar Johnson of old is gone, but he can still be a decent pitcher.
So that leads back to Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano has been stellar for the Marlins so far. Baseball reference has Zambrano with a 1.9 WAR so far, Fangraphs has him with just under a run above replacement. Zambrano has a Marlins best, 1.88 ERA. Big Z has only allowed one earned run in his previous three starts. Zambrano is the Marlins number four pitcher and the Marlins acquired his services for Chris Volstad, who is struggling mightily in Chicago, and the team is only paying him two million dollars this season. The Marlins have quite a bargain right now.
Of course, I don’t see Zambrano maintaining this same path he has started on. Sooner or later, Zambrano will regress and pitch like the Zambrano that frustrates Marlins fans after rewarding the fans with a great start. It would have been excellent to see Zambrano take the mound against the Braves in Atlanta, where his final issues with the Cubs arose, but that is not going to happen this series.

What hasn’t happened that you expected to happen when you looked at the roster the day before the season started?

Gaby Sanchez has not gotten off to the first half hot streak that he has gotten on in his first two seasons. He his currently only hitting .198 with only 1 home run. Gaby was supposed to be a big part of the Marlins lineup, but it seems like he is not showing any improvement as the season wears on. With first base being the offensive premium position it is, I don’t know how long the Marlins can last with Gaby struggling as bad as he has. The more and more Gaby struggles, it just makes my argument that the Marlins would be better off moving Logan Morrison to first and trading Gaby Sanchez (to get) stronger.

Follow up thoughts

Thanks to Eshan for his assistance in getting to know the Marlins a little better. Just a few thoughts on his input.

Ozzie is a good baseball man. For all of his faux pas he knows the game and plays an aggressive and entertaining style of ball. What he lacks is a filter, something that says “Uh, wait a second, breathe, go you really want to do or say that?” I do agree he knows much more about baseball that Fredi. Having said that Fredi has apparently been taking lessons somewhere as he hasn’t made as many obvious goofs this year as last. he is standing up for his pIayers more when they feel abused by the umps and not abusing his bullpen to the point that Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters may actually be under used.

I said when the trade was make Zambrano would have a good year. He is no longer in the spotlight as the ACE of the staff and he has good stuff. Even a regressed Zambrano is preferable to Volstad.

I believe that trading Sanchez may happen. I like him a lot but either he or LoMo will go eventually and if he continues to struggle he may be the guy. The flip side of that is that if he struggles his value is way down. Milwaukee might be a good trading partner as they really need a first baseman right now.

That’s A Wrap

It loos to be an interesting series with Ozzie returning to Atlanta and the new look Marlins hot. If the Braves bats can find their way against Buehrle we could sweep it. I think however that a split is the most likely ending. Let me know your thoughts on this or anything Braves.

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Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-US PRESSWIRE

After allowing five runs in his last five innings, Jonny Venters currently has an ERA over a run higher than his first two seasons.  At 3.29, no one should really be concerned, but the MLB Network decided they needed a 2-3 minute segment talking about his “struggles.”  Looking deeper into the stats (who would have thought I would do that?), Venters may actually be pitching better than ever.

This improvement is evident in his FIP and SIERA.  After having FIPs around 2.70 and SIERAs around 2.60 the last two seasons, he sits at an 2.23 FIP and 1.96 SIERA.  Only Craig Kimbrel boasts better rates on the team.  So, what is fueling such a difference in ERA and FIP?  He has allowed a .471 BABIP and 30% of all batted balls have been line drives, each of those figures double of what they were last year.

As far as his individual skills, his control has remained static, walking or hitting about 10% of batters faced.  His K-rate has increased from 26% to 34%, possibly due to his increased usage of his slider and the introduction of his changeup.  Both of those pitches have whiff percentages above 30%, while his sinker has gone from 12% whiffs to 6%.  The lack of whiffs on the sinker is also a sign of less groundballs, getting 50% GBs this year after 80% last year.  Hitters are probably realizing that if the ball starts below the waist, it’s going to be at the knees or lower.

Overall, I like what Venters is doing so far.  The development of his changeup will be helpful with right-handed bats.  The sinker is moving nearly as much as it was last year, so he will have to make the adjustment of throwing the ball at the bottom of the zone instead of below the zone.  As long as he keeps his walks under control, Venters will do just fine.

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A combination of solid pitching and timely hitting led the Braves to a 7-4 victory and a series sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals.

This matchup pitted Tommy Hanson against the red hot rookie Lance Lynn. Lynn entered today 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA, having given up just six runs all season. His fastball looked electric, regularly touching 95-96 mph on the gun, but he did not seem to be in command of his offspeed pitches. It didn’t take long for the Braves to touch him up.

With two outs in the third, Prado singled, and Uggla and Freeman followed up with walks, loading the bases for Jason Heyward. Heyward worked the count full and fought off a few more pitches before shooting a double into the corner in right, scoring all three runners and putting the Braves out to an early 3-0 lead. Lynn finished the third inning having thrown 81 pitches, and this high pitch total would continue to haunt him throughout the game.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/teams/stl/gallery/im:urn:newsml:sports.yahoo,ap:20050301:mlb,photo,ap-201205131505543100503:1

On the flipside, Hanson looked great through five innings, sporting what may have been his best stuff all year; his fastball touched 92-93, reminding us all of the Tommy Hanson of old. He got into a bit of a jam in the first before striking out Beltran, Craig, Berkman, Freese, and Descalso in order over the next two innings. In total, Tommy struck out nine through five official innings. However, he ran into a bit of trouble in the sixth, giving up three hits in a row, including a solo home run to Carlos Beltran (his eighth this month…mercy).  Hanson was relieved by Durbin, who retired Freese, then O’Flaherty, who struck out two to escape a bases loaded jam.

The Braves responded in the seventh with some more clutch hitting, as Prado drove in Pastornicky with two outs to bring the score to 4-1. Freeman and Uggla added back-to-back RBI doubles to give the Braves a solid 6-1 lead. Add on a Michael Bourn RBI bloop single in the eighth, and the Braves set the score to 7-1. Fredi set the bullpen to cruise control, turning the game over to Christhian Martinez. However, Martinez couldn’t get it done, allowing a monster three-run homer to left to Allen Craig and putting the Cardinals back within spitting distance. But their luck would end there, as Venters came on with two outs and promptly struck out Lance Berkman to record the save. The Braves took the game and the series from the defending World Champs.

Notes on today’s game:

• The Cardinals honored Chipper today with a signed picture of himself and a signed Stan Musial jersey presented by former Braves Rafael Furcal and Adam Wainwright.  Cardinals fans greeted Chipper with a standing ovation and a warm reception (take notes, Dodgers fans…).
• The Braves and Cards used pink bats and bands today in honor of Mother’s Day, a day especially important to Freddie Freeman.
• Lance Lynn had given up just six runs all year, but he gave up three in one swing on Heyward’s three RBI double in the third. Lynn threw 121 pitches through six innings, the highest pitch count of his young career.
• Pastornicky recorded the first  stolen base of his career. The Rev doesn’t get much of a chance to run hitting in front of the pitcher but wasted no time in the seventh with Chipper pinch hitting.
• Uggla’s RBI double in the seventh was the 200th of his career.
• Allen Craig’s ninth inning home run was his fifth in the last seven games.
• All of the Braves’ seven runs came with two outs, as Atlanta put on a clinic in timely hitting.

The Braves return home tomorrow to take on the Cincinnati Reds. Randall Delgado (2-3) will battle Homer Bailey (1-3) at 7:10 EST.

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