Today Martin Prado moves to Arizona while Justin Upton joins the Braves. Original Photo Credit Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports and Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Late last night it became obvious that the trade for Justin Upton would happen, the only question was who the D’Backs would accept in the trade. In the end the player I called the heartbeat of the Braves last week was the component that made it happen; Martin Prado. I said back in October that Upton the younger would look really good in Atlanta but never expected the Braves to let Prado go. Circumstances change however and Prado is now a Diamondback.

Why Trade Prado?

The Braves made Prado a multiyear offer but could never get to a number he would accept. I projected an average annual value of $11M for Prado and today we learned that’s what he wanted. The Braves wouldn’t go that far. Then last week the parties couldn’t bridge a $400K arbitration gap. Those two things meant that Prado would leave after next season without any compensation. That made him expendable for the right guy. Justin Upton is the right guy.

The Others

Also included in the trade were Braves prospects Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury, and Zeke Spruill. The Diamondbacks sent third baseman Chris Johnson along to keep Upton company. Bob Nightengale of USA today says that Ahmed would be flipped to Detroit with a reliever for Rick Porcello. If you haven’t seen all of Justin Upton’s numbers and why I like him take a look at my earlier piece. Chris Johnson is more of an unknown.

The right handed hitting Johnson was drafted by the Astros in the fourth round of the 2006 draft. Baseball America ranked him the Astros number five prospect in 2008 but he fell back to their number 16 in 2009.  Arizona obtained him from Houston in an effort to solidify their third base position in July of 2012. He appeared in 136 games in 2012 – 44 for Arizona – and finished with a line of .286/.321/.503 in 147 ABs, walking 35 times and striking out 40. He showed little home run power however connecting only seven times  At third base, Johnson has soft hands and a strong arm but isn’t particularly agile. At 28 years old Johnson should be in his peak years.

Is There A Downside

There’s always a downside. The loss of Prado means we have no obvious leadoff hitter.  Andrelton Simmons whose speed was never fully realized batting in the eight spot was my first thought. Then on the MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning Harold Reynolds suggested that the Braves ignore B.J. Upton’s horrible OBP in 2012 and make him leadoff man.I also saw Jason Heyward suggested for that role.  That’s a question to be sorted out in spring training but I still prefer Simmons. The other issue is strikeouts

I said a few weeks back that we have too many strikeouts in our lineup. This trade makes that strikeout number even higher.  I still believe the worst kind of out is a strikeout however, some things lessen their impact; like lots of home runs. Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs put together a piece on the effect of strikeouts on run production. His conclusion was that there’s no direct correlation between Ks and run production.

The A’s led the major’s in strikeouts last year but still won the AL West. They didn’t last long in the playoff’s however and that’s the real problem with a strikeout prone lineup appears; the post season when all you see are the best pitcher’s in the league.  Having said that, no pitcher will enjoy facing this lineup.

Andrelton Simmons (R)

Jason Heyward (L)

Justin Upton (R)

Bran McCann (L)

B.J. Upton (R)

Freddie Freeman (L)

Dan Uggla (R)

Juan Francisco (L)

Pitcher

It’s highly unlikely that all of the quality bats from one through six will go cold at once and if you’re the opposing pitcher, where do you go to get an out?  Anywhere you look in this lineup a mistake might well end up as a souvenir home run ball.  There’s no place to rest. Even Francisco showed improvement in his winter league plate appearances and we’ve seen his power on display.

That’s A Wrap

I hated losing Prado as much as anybody but I hope fans understand that Upton is a far superior player and that this was a good deal for the Braves. Dave Cameron’s summation over at Fangraphs hit the nail on the head.

The calculus is a little different for Atlanta. They almost certainly weren’t going to re-sign Prado after this season, so this is a choice of a three year asset over a guy they saw as a rental. And, it’s also an upside play, as Prado at his best still isn’t as good as Upton at his best, and Upton’s heading into his prime, rather than out of it. . . . With Upton, the Braves are buying upside and team control, and it’s not costing them pieces of their organization that were considered parts of the core going forward.

Readers will know I’m not a great Frank Wren fan and honestly I’m not sure how much of this was a plan and how much of it fell in our lap as the best they could get for a player their owners wanted out of town.  Whatever the case Wren did indeed pull off a pretty good deal this time. I still don’t think he’s a genius but my hat’s off to him for bringing Justin Upton to Atlanta.

Sept. 17, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Martin Prado (14) connects for an RBI single during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Braves won 7-5. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Contact has always his biggest strength, as he only struck out 10% of his PAs.  That was the one area of his offensive game in 2011 that stayed on par, as he K’ed an career-low 8.8% of the time.  A slightly lower swing rate produced a sizable jump in walks to a league-average 8.4%.  With the league-average BB/K ratio around 0.4, there aren’t many hitters able to provide the plate discipline to double that rate.

The biggest reason for the rebound was the return of line drives.  After only hitting 14.6% liners in ’11, Prado posted a near 23% LD rate this past season, a figure near his previous average.  This led to a .322 BABIP, up over 50 points from 2011.  He did struggle a bit in the second half, which was mostly a BABIP fluctuation with no signs of a reason.  His power was also down a bit, as he hit ten homers, the fewest of the last four seasons despite having a career-high in PAs.

In other splits, Prado was just an all-around better hitter against lefties.  He had a higher BABIP and more power at home, but was more patient on the road.  July was his rough month, sporting his worst walk, ISO, and BABIP rates of any month.  Prado was able to use his patient approach at the plate due to his .286/.317/.440 slashline with two strikes, almost 250 OPS points above the league average.

Stolen bases also entered Prado’s game this year, as he more-than-doubled his career total with 17 steals in 21 attempts.  He also had a tremendous 58% extra-base-taken percentage, while Elvis Andrus and Dexter Fowler were the only other major leaguers to exceed that rate with at least 20 extra bases taken.  This doesn’t mean Prado is a speed-burner, but he’s learning how to be aggressive and provide value with more than the bat.

August 13, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Martin Prado (14) makes a diving catch in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Turner field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

As much as the offensive production was great to see, the defensive ability and versatility was just as helpful.  Spending about 1000 innings in left field, he rated as a +10 fielder, showing good range and a great arm rating.  He was also slightly above average in his near 200 innings at third base.  He played some second base when Dan Uggla needed a few games off to clear the head, and for the first time in his professional career, Prado had some consistent work at shortstop, rating fairly well in the near 100 innings.  One would assume he would begin next season at third base, but it depends on who the Braves bring in to replace Chipper Jones.

Speaking of next season, Prado will be in his walk year.  After his $4.75M salary this past season, I wouldn’t be surprised if his arbitration value is around $6.5M for next year.  Turning 29 in a couple weeks, he seems to be the prime candidate as the third baseman of the future, which makes an extension likely.  It would probably end up just a bit short of the same figures as Uggla’s deal (5/$62M), which I think would be fair to both sides.  Howie Kendrick has not shown the consistency of Prado, and he managed 4/$33.5M with a similar style of play.

I found a couple historical comparisons for Prado that represent both sides of the future spectrum.  Looking at above-average hitters who specialized in contact and moved around on defense through age 28, I found Paul Molitor and Gregg Jefferies.  Molitor ran more than Prado, but his offensive line through 28 was similar, though it’s hard to imagine Prado sporting eight straight seasons of an 125 or higher OPS+ after turning 30.  Jefferies was not good defensively, but he had tremendous plate discipline.  Unlike Molitor, Jefferies fell off the map after turning 30, so Prado will likely be the middle ground.

After a tough 2011 season, Prado showed he was fully recovered and was one of the most important pieces to the 94-win team.  His defensive versatility lets the team have a broader scope on players to bring in.  No matter what player is brought in to replace Chipper, Prado should get an extension, showing any impressionable player how important a team-first attitude is to the organization.  Not only that, but the inclusion of SS play and stolen bases show his ability to continuously improve, a good sign for the future.

Everyone Known The Braves Must Make A Trade

Unless  you’ve been in a coma for three months you’ll know what the Braves needs are. But just in case here’s a Recap

• High quality starting pitching
• A bench that can hit
• Bullpen Arm
• Dan Uggla to remember how to hit (okay a trade can’t do that but something has to.)

The non-waiver trade deadline is a little over eight days and a few hours away yet except for rumors, all is quite on the trade front and not just for the Braves.

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