Braves and Dodgers Square Off for Four in Atlanta

The Braves head home with a hole in their infield that wasn’t there when they left for Houston, but are two wins in the better. They take on a puttering Dodgers team that is coming off a devastating series loss to the Phillies.

The Dodgers are 10-17 since the break, much of which came during a six-game losing streak to begin the second half. They are 5-6 in August and are coming off a tough loss to the Phillies in which their staff blew a huge lead late, causing them to lose the series. The Dodgers have a below average offense due to a .316 wOBA, good for 12th in the National League. They have average plate discipline and record their share of walks, but their main problem is a lack of power, where they have a .390 SLG and .129 ISO. They live off manufacturing runs and waiting for the big hit.

The Dodgers are missing their two best bats as Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal currently reside on the disabled list. Also, their starting catcher, Russell Martin, was recently placed on the disabled list as well. Andre Ethier still maintains a .378 wOBA and James Loney and Matt Kemp are around .330. The pitching staff is ranked sixth best in the league with a 4.11 xFIP. They have one of the highest strikeout rates as well as one of the highest walk rates.

Pitching Matchups after the jump…

The series opener on Friday night features Hiroki Kuroda against Tim Hudson. Kuroda is having another good season, posting a 3.58 xFIP with a 7.29 K/9. He is walking more but it’s still pretty low at 2.36 BB/9. He’s missing more bats this season as well as getting more groundouts and allowing fewer home runs. Kuroda has pitched well against the Braves in 21 innings, allowing five earned runs. He gave up three of those in six innings against the Braves earlier this season.

Hudson rebounded from a start in which he didn’t have his best stuff by having his best stuff, pitching eight shutout innings on three hits and striking out six against the Giants. It was the best I’ve seen him look this season and that’s saying plenty. Hudson has a 3.89 ERA in 11 career starts against the Dodgers and gave up three earned runs in seven innings against them earlier this season.

Saturday night’s game is Ted Lilly vs. Derek Lowe. Lilly isn’t pitching as well as his 3.60 ERA indicates, recording a 4.37 xFIP with a .250 BABIP. He’s missing fewer bats and is striking out only 6.92 K/9. He’s maintaining a solid walk rate at 2.01 BB/9, but he’s also giving up more homers and fewer grounders. His slider is worth -2.3 this season, the first time it has been below average since 2005. Also his changeup has been below average. Lilly has a 5.02 ERA in eight starts against the Braves.

Lowe looked pretty solid in his last start against the Giants before going down with cramps and heat problems. He allowed two runs on five hits in 5.1 innings, but seemed to continue his good work from the previous start. Lowe has allowed ten runs in 26.1 innings against the Dodgers.

Sunday afternoon’s game should prove to be a good one as Vicente Padilla faces Mike Minor. Padilla is having a good season but has also been helped by luck, recording a .244 BABIP. He’s pitching more in line with his 3.89 xFIP, which is still his best since his rookie season in 2002. His 3.67 K/BB is insanely high compared to his career number of 2, due to a K/9 of 8 and BB/9 of 2.18, both career bests. Even so, he’s missing fewer bats compared to his career average and is giving up more balls in the air by a considerable margin. Padilla has a 3.54 ERA in 17 starts and 18 total games against the Braves.

Minor pitched well in his debut against the Astros, allowing three earned runs and four total on five hits in six innings, walking one and striking out five. The Astros dinked him to death for those four runs, but he also got some liners that found infielders. In any case, Minor pitched better than his line shows.

Perhaps the best matchup of the series is Monday night when Chad Billingsley faces Tommy Hanson. Billingsley has a 4.06 xFIP with a 2.25 K/BB, both near his averages. His problem is he’s striking out fewer at 7.29 K/9 and isn’t missing as many bats. However, he is walking fewer at 3.24 BB/9, which is his career best, to help maintain the numbers. Billingsley mixes a wide assortment of pitches, all of which have been above average this season with the exception of his curveball, which he got plenty success from last season. He has a 3.82 ERA in 30.2 innings against the Braves and allowed three runs in six innings against them earlier this season.

Hanson continues to pitch extremely well, allowing just an unearned run on two hits in seven innings against the Astros last time out. He has given up fewer than two runs in each of his past four starts. Hanson has allowed six runs in 12 innings against the Dodgers but pitched well against them earlier this season, allowing two runs in six innings and striking out six.