Series Preview: Braves @ Red Sox
Finally regaining some momentum after winning the last two games against the Yankees, the Braves head to Boston to finish off interleague play against the Red Sox. I will make the obligatory “Collapse Series” comment, then move on to this year’s transgressions. The Red Sox and Braves are in very similar situations in the standings, packed in the middle of a very tough division. Each team has been very streaky, making this series completely unpredictable.
Game 1 – Friday 7:10 ET – Jair Jurrjens vs. Jon Lester
Jurrjens makes his return to Atlanta as Beachy’s replacement in the rotation. Jurrjens wasn’t exactly great in AAA, posting a 5.10 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 57.1 IP. He only walked 5.6% of hitters, but also had a similarly-low 11.9% K rate. He won’t be as bad as he was in April, but I’m not expecting anything more than replacement level production. Lester has a mediocre 4.53 ERA, but his FIP and SIERA are both around 3.60, very good marks. He’s not striking out hitters near the level he was two to three years ago, but he’s only walking about 7% of hitters and inducing 50% ground balls. He has been pitching well lately, making this a very tough match-up for the Braves.
Game 2 – Saturday 7:15 ET – Randall Delgado vs. Franklin Morales
Delgado has thrown very well two of his last three starts. His walks and ERA have shown a very high correlation, with all his poor games coming when he walks hitters more than one every other inning. Morales will be making only his second start of the season, replacing Josh Beckett, who is on the DL with a shoulder injury. Morales threw five great innings last time out against the Cubs, walking none and striking out nine. He only threw 80 pitches, meaning he’s likely to only be able to throw 90-95 this start. Walks were his big problem in Colorado, but those have come down considerably the last couple seasons. The second lefty of the series has a much bigger platoon split, making the performance of Prado, Uggla, and Simmons more important.
Game 3 – Sunday 1:35 ET – Mike Minor vs. Clay Buchholz
In the head-scratcher game, Minor looks to hang on to his rotation spot once again. He had a great start spoils two turns ago, and he threw four great innings before blowing up in the fifth last time out. On the other side, the equally puzzling Buchholz has been very good over his past five starts after a horrific beginning of the season. Amazingly, his record is 8-2, winning four games in which he has allowed at least five runs. His walk, strikeout, and groundball rate are all right around career norms, but his .316 BABIP allowed is his highest since ’08, and his HR/FB% of 16.9% is well above league average. This could become a battle of the bullpens very quickly.
Offensively, the Braves have been a very split team the past two weeks. Jason Heyward has been scorching the ball to the tune of a 184 wRC+ (.342/.375/.658). Andrelton Simmons has also hit well, posting a .317/.364/.488 line, while Michael Bourn has maintained his success with a 126 wRC+. On the other end, Chipper Jones, Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann, and Martin Prado all have wRC+ figures below 80. Dan Uggla has a very unique .139/.380/.250 line the past two weeks.
The Red Sox have had a really strange season, seeing three of their four most reliable bats hit below average. Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Dustin Pedroia all have wRC+’s in the 80’s, and all of them are struggling the past couple weeks. David Ortiz skipped his early struggles of recent years, having compiled a .310/.395/.607 line this season. They have also had surprising impact from Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Daniel Nava, and Will Middlebrooks, which has kept them in the division race.
It is scary knowing that Pedroia, Gonzalez, and Youkilis are all looking to break out of slumps right now. If those three start to turn it around, the eventual regression of Middlebrooks, Nava, and Salty won’t be a problem. Boston has a decided edge in tonight’s game, while games 2 and 3 are essentially toss-ups. This series may very well (hopefully) go like the last Yankees series, losing the first than winning the last two.