Free Agent Preview – Starting Pitchers

Today, we’ll review the starting pitchers available on the market this offseason.  Note those with contract options as this preview is being done before options need to be exercised, and many players on this list may have options that are picked up and no longer are available.

Starting Pitchers (*left-handed)

Brett Anderson*, 27 – $12M club option: 43 1/3 IP, 2.91 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.23 K/BB
Scott Baker, 33: 76 2/3 IP, 5.52 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 3.57 K/BB
Josh Beckett, 35: 115 2/3 IP, 2.88 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.74 K/BB
Chad Billingsley, 30 – $14M club option: did not play in 2013
A.J. Burnett, 38 – $15M mutual option: 207 IP, 4.57 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.97 K/BB
Chris Capuano*, 36: 90.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.32 K/BB
Bruce Chen*, 38: 48 1/3 IP, 7.45 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.76 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.25 K/BB
Wei-Yin Chen*, 29 – $4.75M club option: 179 2/3 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.91 K/BB
Kevin Correia, 34: 154 IP, 5.44 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 1.98 BB/K
Johnny Cueto, 29 – $10M club option: 227 2/3 IP, 2.33 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.56 K/BB
Gavin Floyd, 32: 54 1/3 IP, 2.65 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.46 K/BB
Yovani Gallardo, 29 – $13M club option: 187 1/3 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.68 K/BB
Jason Hammel, 32: 170 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.48 K/BB
J.A. Happ*, 32 – $6.7M club option: 151 2/3 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
Aaron Harang, 37: 197 2/3 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.26 K/BB
Dan Haren, 34 – $10M player option: 181 IP, 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.92 K/BB
Roberto Hernandez, 34: 159 IP, 4.08 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.48 K/BB
Hisashi Iwakuma, 34 – $7M club option: 172 2/3 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 7.14 K/BB
Josh Johnson, 31 – $4M club option: Did not pitch in 2013
Kyle Kendrick, 30: 192 IP, 4.73 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 2.13 K/BB
Hiroki Kuroda, 40: 191 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.91 K/BB
Jon Lester*, 31: 212 2/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.44 K/BB
Colby Lewis, 35: 163 1/3 IP, 5.34 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.93 K/BB
Francisco Liriano*, 31: 157 1/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.24 K/BB
Paul Maholm*, 33: 70 2/3 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 4.3 K/9, 1.21 K/BB
Justin Masterson, 30: 126 2/3 IP, 5.97 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.68 K/BB
Daisuke Matsuzaka, 34: 81 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.53 K/BB
Brandon McCarthy, 31: 194 2/3 IP, 3.93 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 5.06 K/BB
Franklin Morales*, 29: 142 IP, 5.20 ERA, 5.35 FIP, 1.59 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.59 K/BB
Brandon Morrow, 30 – $10M club option: 32 1/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.67 K/BB
Felipe Paulino, 31 – $4M club option: 18 1/3 IP, 11.29 ERA, 7.98 FIP, 2.56 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.17 K/BB
Jake Peavy, 34: 197 2/3 IP, 3.78 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.58 K/BB
Wandy Rodriguez*, 36: 26 2/3 IP, 6.75 ERA, 7.40 FIP, 1.69 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.50 K/BB
Ervin Santana, 32: 190 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.85 K/BB
Joe Saunders*, 34: 41 IP, 7.02 ERA, 6.69 FIP, 2.15 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.00 K/BB
Max Scherzer, 30: 214 1/3 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 4.12 K/BB
James Shields, 33: 221 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 4.19 K/BB
Misael Siverio*, 24: Cuban defector
Kevin Slowey, 31: 37 1/3 IP, 5.30 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.66 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.67 K/BB
Carlos Villanueva, 31: 77 2/3 IP, 4.64 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.79 K/BB
Ryan Vogelsong, 37: 179 1/3 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.61 K/BB
Edinson Volquez, 30: 185 2/3 IP, 3.15 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.86 K/BB
Jerome Williams, 33: 109 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.26 K/BB
Randy Wolf*, 38: 25 2/3 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.17 K/BB
Chris Young, 36: 165 IP, 3.65 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.80 K/BB

The Braves rotation was attacked by injury in March of 2014, which changed the complexity of the Braves season.  While the rotation remained one of the strong points of the 2014 Braves, pieces gathered to hold the rotation together will be tough to replace.  The 2015 Braves will feature Julio Teheran and Alex Wood. but after that is very unclear.  Mike Minor has been shut down due to shoulder issues, which were the reason he started late this season and had such inconsistent results.  We’ve seen this story before with Tommy Hanson, and I don’t want to simply assume he’ll be in the rotation.  Kris Medlen is arbitration-eligible, and he won’t be back until likely mid-season (or shouldn’t be assumed to be back before mid-season anyway).  David Hale has pitched well in a flex long relief/starter role in 2014, so he could do well, but he’s more a back of the rotation guy than someone who should be a #3.  The Braves have some excellent arms in guys like Lucas Sims, but outside Jason Hursh, none are really probably ready to be in the rotation in 2015.  That means at least two rotation spots should be picked up through trade or free agency this offseason.

Picking up Aaron Harang was a coup, but he will likely want multiple years and $6M+ per season to return and will most certainly get that in the open market this offseason.  So who’s the Harang on the market right now?  While Harang was someone picked up late in the offseason, and many of the best pickings come from non-tendered players, there are some that could be solid pickups on the cheap.  Gavin Floyd was very successful for the Braves last year, and if the reports on his broken elbow are positive, he should be a quick target for a possible 2-year deal with vesting money into the second year based on his performance this year.  While they won’t be $1M signings, I think a one-year deal for Kuroda would be an excellent move, though he seems like he would like to retire a Yankee if they will allow him to.  J.A. Happ also could be an interesting signing for the back of the rotation if his option isn’t picked up.

I’m not sure that we’ll see the Braves make a run at the big three of the offseason – Lester, Scherzer, and Shields.  Because of the attention paid to those three, a team willing to pony up early with one or more of the pitchers in the next tier could find themselves in much better shape than the losers of the race for the big three.  The pitchers in that next tier would include Liriano, Peavy, Santana, and perhaps Hammel and McCarthy.  A few guys I’d certainly want to avoid would be Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Brandon Morrow, and Josh Johnson.  Of the injured guys, I’d be interested to see what Josh Beckett shows this offseason, and while I’d go nowhere near the price of his option, Brett Anderson would be intriguing as well as a 6th starter type that could force his way into the rotation, but isn’t relied on, due to his previous injury issues.

An area I’m curious of exploring in this year’s market is the guy who is a swing starter/reliever – guys like Franklin Morales, Carlos Villanueva, and Chris Capuano could offer a ton of value to the team without costing a ridiculous salary.