2014 Season Over/Under Contest Results
The Braves’ season is now in the rear-view mirror. But it doesn’t mean that we can’t still have some fun with it.
Back at the end of March, I proposed a contest of sorts to guess how the team would do in several categories. That post can be seen at this link – kind of. It seems that the mechanisms that allowed us to make the slick menus are completely broken, so we’ll recap it all here. But despite that hiccup, we do have a winner! I never promised anything in the way of a prize other than bragging rights, but perhaps we could extend a lifetime membership to TomahawkTake.com and a subscription to our invisible newsletter.
To the Data!
THE TEAM PERFORMANCE QUESTIONS
Washington Nationals left fielder
Kevin Frandsen(19). Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
REGULAR SEASON TOTAL WINS. Ouch. This one hurts. The Over/Under standard was 90.5, which certainly seemed reasonable for a 96 win team from 2013 that now had pitching questions. 63.5% of you were optimistic and took the ‘Over’. Sorry about that. RESULT: 79 (UNDER)
THE PITCHING PERFORMANCE QUESTIONS
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs quarterback Cody Sokol (19). Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
# DIFFERENT STARTING PITCHERS. Counting James Russell yesterday, the answer was still not as many as I’d guessed with the standard of 10.5. After Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy went down, I had expected the worst to continue. 62% agreed. It actually did not. RESULT: 8 (UNDER)
Okay, on this one, you need to know a little history. Fredi Gonzalez had been roundly criticized for over-using his bullpen. Jonny Venters was the poster child of this. In 2011, the Braves bullpen ranked 3rd in innings pitched (522). In 2012, that dropped to 15th (486). By 2013, Fredi managed to get the Braves down to 29th on that list – 460.2 innings.
Naturally, I didn’t buy that trend, and guessed a standard value that would put the Braves back into the middle of the pack (494.5). Between history and the shakiness of the starting pitching (particularly early on), this seemed to be a good call. 67% not only agreed with this, but were more pessimistic that this number would be higher.
2014? How about 440.2 innings from relievers. 29th in baseball again… only beaten out by the Reds. So I have to give Gonzalez some credit here: he is no longer a bullpen killer. In fact, the guy with the most innings? Craig Kimbrel: 61.2. That number was exceeded 4 times in 2011 alone. RESULT: 440.2 (UNDER)
THE HITTING PERFORMANCE QUESTIONS
Chris Davis (19). Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
HOMERS+BATT AVG (Andrelton Simmons). Standard 270.1. A not-so-good result: 78% were wrong. RESULT: 251 (UNDER)
TIE-BREAKERS
- Who would have more homers: Evan Gattis or Brian McCann? Until an 8-HR September, this looked to be a lock for Gattis. Turned into a 23-22 winner for Heap.
- Higher batting average: Uggla or BJ? B.J. Upton wins – if you can call it that – in a runaway: .208 to .149 (shudder)
- # of Braves’ in-season trades executed at the major league level: just one – the deal that brought James Russell and Emilio Bonafacio into the house.
Okay, So Who Won??
I have to count ‘Ringers’ separately from the ‘Readers’ here… and there’s one who has been dancing on that line of distinction between the two groups.
Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (19) signs autographs. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Of the 24 questions in the survey…
- Staff Writer Benjamin Chase got nineteen of them correct. Among the misses: Pitching wins by Teheran/Santana/Minor (perfectly understandable), team wins, Simmons, and different pitcher starts. That a pretty stout result.
- In the newly created ‘former writer/often contributor‘ category, Lee Trocinski garnered 18 correct answers. If Justin doesn’t somehow get in the Top 4 of the MVP ballot, then – yes – we can flip these top two finishers. But I think they’re gonna stick.
Among the pure ‘readers’, we had a 3-way tie with 16 correct answers.
- Bama Brave
- Cerrato76
- Kemosabie
The tie-breakers have spoken: Kemosabie is our readers winner – getting 2 of the 3 tie-breakers correct (Cerrato76 getting 1 for the runner-up position). Even if Justin doesn’t get the MVP votes, Kemosabie would still win – with 17 correct answers, which would eliminate the need for the tie-breaker.
We had 91 entries in the contest – and…. what? You want to know how I did?
No – you really don’t: my problem (read that as “excuse”) was in trying to guess all the results ahead of time, and thus thinking every question would be a coin flip. Ergo, ‘heads’ came up just 8 times. It was hardly the worst result (somebody managed to get only 5 right), but nothing to brag about, for sure. I also got only 1 of the tie-breakers.
Among the other ‘Staff entries’ from those who are or were writing for us at the time:
- Julien Benjamin: 10 plus 2 tie-breakers
- Chris Headrick: 8 plus 2.
- Brandon Woodworth: a strong 13 plus 2.
- Fred Owens: another strong showing: also getting 13 plus 2.
- Hmmm…. somehow I managed to let my co-editor slip through without an entry.
So congratulations to the winners identified above – and especially to Ben, the “Shortstop King”, who also won our staff Rotisserie League for 2014… all of these #19 photos are just for you!
We do sincerely appreciate the participation – this was fun!