The Case for Trading Evan Gattis

Let me say this very clearly up front:  I personally do not wish for the Atlanta Braves to trade Evan Gattis this off-season.

I like the guy, I like his story, I like his hitting, I like his swing, his evident enthusiasm for the game (hopefully that didn’t get crushed this year), and I even like his moniker.

But there’s more reasons to move him before January than not.  And that’s what I want to talk about today.

“Pros” – reasons to trade him

• Evan turned 28 years old in August.   As much as we may like him, it’s actually possible that he may have peaked this year.  He played 108 games, limited by various oddball maladies, including strep throat, a bulging disc in his back, and a kidney stone.  He still had a career high 22 homers and major league high .263 average to go with a 2.3 fWAR rating.  But studies suggest (also here, more briefly) that baseball players peak around ages 28-30, so you could well argue that Evan’s peak trade value should be sometime between now and a year from now.
• We’ve got Christian Bethancourt.  If Justin Upton stays with the team, then Gattis has no position… you either have a great hitter (Gattis) sitting on the bench or a great defender (Bethancourt) sitting.  Neither situation is good.
• Gattis’ value is partly the fact that he is an offensive threat every time he grabs a bat, but contractually he’s still pre-arbitration.  His circumstances are a bit unfortunate in that he may never see a long-term contract worth tens of millions (earliest free agency year: 2019, when he’s 33).  But that’s exactly why (along with his bat) teams would want him.  So there’s four years of team control remaining.

• You could easily look at that 2.3 fWAR rating for 2014 and say “but that’s really not a great number.”  Let’s look deeper:
  • Gattis ranked 14th among catchers in that raw WAR figure (minimum 50 AB) despite only 108 games; essentially tied with Brian McCann (13th), oddly enough.
  • There were a handful of “elite” catchers who sustained their performance over the whole season:  Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Yan Gomes, Salvador Perez.  Others performed very well in short bursts, but were hurt or had other issues to limit playing time:  Matt Wieters, Michael McKenry,Wilson Ramos, for instance.
  • Gattis’ number would have been better had the opportunities been better:  he ranked 24th among all catchers in plate appearances with runners on base; 26th with men in scoring position.  Thus his own WAR (RBI opportunities) was hurt by his teammates’ failures.
  • Still – 14th puts you in good company – another 30 games played would have put him close to the top ten.

• Of those “top catchers” (there were 79 on my list)…
  • Jonathan Lucroy – locked up through 2016/17 team option
  • Buster Posey – locked up through 2021
  • Russell Martin – about to become a very rich young man… except that he’s almost 32 already.
  • Yan Gomes – locked up through 2019/20/21 team options
  • Devin Mesoraco – just now arbitration-eligible.  But Cincy has no backup backstop plan like Atlanta does.  So he’s staying.
  • Salvador Perez – locked up through 2016/17/18/19
  • Yadier Molina – could fall apart at literally any moment:  32 years old, locked up through 2017/18
  • Rene Rivera – Pre-arb; San Diego will be keeping him.  Earliest free agency: 2018
  • Chris Iannetta – locked up through 2015, almost 32.
  • Derek Norris – Same arb schedule as Gattis; little bit less production than Gattis.  It’s Oakland, so he’s staying.
  • Brian McCann – locked up through 2018/19
  • Matt Wieters – 28 years old, last arbitration year coming up.  Orioles could cut him loose.

… and you’ll note that I left Joe Mauer off that list since he’s a prime example of a catcher who’s having physical limitations that prevent him from catching much more… and he’s now 31-1/2.

So there’s twelve of the best catchers in baseball:  one of them is available – possibly a second, depending on Wieters’ status (and he’s a Boras client).

Are there others?  Robinson Chirinos is pre-arb, though already 30-1/2, Kurt Suzuki is 31 and locked up through 2016 or 2017.  I’m hard-pressed to find better catchers out there than Gattis.

So the final reason for trading Gattis:  by my count, there are ~10-14 teams that could upgrade that position by trading for Gattis.  There are a couple of others that would appreciate the the opportunity to make him their regular designated hitter and part-time catcher.  That’s a big market.  And that means big returns if the Braves chose to make him available.

Cons

Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt (25) tags out Philadelphia Phillies catcher Wil Nieves (21). Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Reasons to keep him – yes, there are several:

• It’s not a horrible idea to keep a cheap player – duh.  No arguments there.
• If Justin Upton is moved, then he could play left field. This is also a reason to trade him – so that Gattis doesn’t play left field.  But read the next point.
• If Gattis stays healthy, he could easily have a break-out year in 2015.  My counter-argument to this goes back to Bethancourt.  We know how Fredi Gonzalez loves to monkey with the lineups.  There’s no way Gattis plays more than 4 or 5 days in any week if CB is lurking about on the bench.  If Justin is on the team, then that really presents a problem, positionally, and in terms of playing time.
• The loss of Gattis means a distinct loss of power in the lineup.  Agreed… you can’t really get around that one.  I could argue that both the Royals and Cardinals made the playoffs this year without hitting many homers… but then I’d also have to concede that these teams are winning in the playoffs because of the home run.  This is the biggest reason to keep Evan – imho.  Bethancourt is never going to be the offensive threat that Evan Gattis is.  My only counter argument is that if you can remove some of the other holes (Melvin, plus improve upon Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons‘s bats), then it’s perhaps a wash in the end.  But that’s an admittedly weak position, given this year.

Expanding on that last point a bit:  Gattis was absent for much of September, and pitchers could then afford to pitch around both Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman.  With Johnson, Simmons, and Melvin all flailing, run-production was limited.  So if you’re going to trade Gattis, then you’d better make sure that the rest of the lineup has OBP guys – preferably ones with speed – instead.  Otherwise, you will have no threats to challenge the pitching and defense of any opponent.

What Would I Want to Recommend?

Fred’s idea last week was a big trade with Oakland.  Move him to bring back Josh Reddick.  The order he used for his ideas is significant:  Gattis was among the last of the deals suggested.

If the Braves are intent on reshaping this club, then Gattis is among the last I’d trade – for exactly the reasons just given above.  You must maintain an offensive threat level – and he’s among the biggest ones available.  Once you remove the “problems” – if you can – then you can afford to consider trading the good pieces that should help you for the future.

Atlanta is in the enviable position of not being forced to make this move – though the presence of 2 excellent backstops is making us consider that carefully.

But for sure:  if they trade him, the return had better be significant, and part of an overall plan that allows the Braves to generate enough offense to avoid the slump of 2014.

The Case for Trading Evan Gattis – October 13, 2014 – TomahawkTake.com