The Case for Trading Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson is the player a lot of Braves’ fans seem to want to diss the most… okay, save for B.J. Upton.  He’s not flashy, not spectacular, and seems to get little respect for his skills.  The contract extension he received in early 2014 was a surprise to almost everyone… and some were openly criticizing the deal.  Oh, and he’s actually not as good as the last guy with the same initials that the Braves put at the hot corner… for close to 2 decades.

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Even as he was signing this new contract in early May, Chris was in the process of posting a terrible offensive year.  But he’s been an up-and-down performer over the past few years:

• 2010 (HOU 362 PA):  .308, .387 BABIP
• 2011 (HOU 405 PA):  .251, .317 BABIP
• 2012 (HOU/AZ 528 PA):  .281, .354 BABIP
• 2013 (ATL 547 PA):  .321, .394 BABIP
• 2014 (ATL 611 PA): .263, .345 BABIP

Lots of big swings in there.  2013 was definitely his best year as he was the National League’s batting leader for most of the year until a late fade gave the title to Michael Cuddyer.  But even then, the relatively low OBP (.358 due to few walks) and lack of power kept his fWAR down to 2.7.

But as the Braves look to re-tool – maybe significantly, maybe not – we’re weighing the pros and cons of whether CJ 2.0 should be part of this re-shaping of the 2015 roster.

Pros

• That contract should be movable as it is affordable:  $6m in 2015, $7.5m in 2016, $9m in 2017 with a $1m buyout (or $10m) for 2018.
• There were 36 third basemen in baseball with 300+ PA in 2014.  Of these, Chris Johnson ranked 30th in fWAR (0.5).  Even during his best season, he’d have ranked 15th… middle of the pack.  Manny Machado played only half the season and scored a 2.5 WAR.  Martin Prado?  2.6  Juan Francisco?  0.7
• The third base position should be as much about offensive production as anything else.
• Too many strikeouts (26.0%- 13th in baseball – the Uptons were 7th/8th)
• Not enough walks (3.8% – tied for 6th lowest in baseball).
• Provides lousy defense.

Cons

Sep 1, 2014;

(23). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

That contract should be kept as it is affordable.  Right now Atlanta needs affordable.

• So you want actual offense?  Who exactly do you want at the position if Johnson is moved out?  Here are the free agent third basemen for this off-season:
  • Pablo Sandoval (wanna try and outbid the Giants?)
  • Hanley Ramirez (wanna try and outbid the Dodgers?)
  • Chase Headley (wanna try and outbid the Yankees?)
  • Aramis Ramirez (he’s already 36)
  • Mark Reynolds (oh, so you want more strikeouts?)
  • Donnie Murphy (“…this is not the Murphy you’re looking for…”)
  • Kelly Johnson (about to be 33; hasn’t hit since 2010)
  • Mike Aviles (see Johnson, Kelly – and add 1 year)
  • Kevin Kouzmanoff (already 33… and hasn’t played [much] since 2010)
  • Chris Nelson (Journeyman, thy name is Chris Nelson)
  • the others are essentially utility infielders.

Of these free agents, Chase Headley actually looks like the most attainable/desirable, given the bizarre situation that still exists with Alex Rodriguez there.  But do you really want to go in that direction?  A robust 4+ year deal with this 30½-year-old is what it would likely take… guessing something in the $15m x 4 year range.

• Internal Options:  a couple of years ago, Atlanta thought they might have a couple:  Edward Salcedo and Victor Caratini.
  • Since then, Salcedo has continued to show no offense at all and iron hands.  He’s playing RF in the Arizona Fall League.  He will not be a major league player.  Meanwhile, Caratini was traded to the Cubs.
  • That leaves Kyle Kubitza, who shows promise, but needs to cure his own defensive issues.  In short:  nobody is ready unless you think Philip Gosselin can do the job full time (possible, though asking a lot).

• Trade Options:  It is always easy to say “not gonna happen”, but it is clear that some deals may be a lot easier than others.
  • Since a splashy debut in 2012, Will Middlebrooks has struggled mightily in Boston, and likely a trade/change-of-scenery candidate.  We have suggested as much before in this forum.  If nothing else, such a deal could bridge the gap to Kubitza or someone else.  I actually believe that Johnson’s hitting would work better in Fenway.
  • Luis Valbuena looks interesting, though is almost 29 and is still 2nd-year arb eligible.  I could see him moved as part of a huge package deal (say:  B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson and Mike Minor for Edwin Jackson and Valbuena?), but likely not individually.
  • Nick Castellanos.  Detroit had to be disappointed with him this year (amongst other outcomes of their season), but he’s still just 22 and I seriously doubt they’d dump him this early.
  • David Freese.  I think we already have a similar player… oh that’s right!  His name is Chris Johnson.  He’s also still under team control, and the Angels need to save money wherever they can.
  • Casey McGehee.  Good season for him, and he could be available… but how much of an upgrade is this 32 year old?  He does strike out less; gets on base more.  But his power is gone.
  • Aside from these names, you’re looking at prospects, players that aren’t upgrades, or the untouchables.  I have answers like that for pretty much everyone you can think of.
    

Sum it Up

When you break it down, the Chris Johnson contract extension actually makes sense for this key reason:  there just aren’t a lot of good, available third basemen around.  Barring a trade, the budget situation the Braves are facing is difficult, thus free agents are going to be nigh impossible to lure.  Johnson’s deal is thus highly attractive to keep.

I could see the possibility of a package deal (one such idea was suggested above). I believe we’re all relatively united in the notion that we’ll be happy doing (almost) whatever is necessaryto free this team of Melvin Upton, Jr.

I could see a change-of-scenery thing (the Middlebrooks idea), which would be done solely for the purpose of saving money. It would not likely improve the team directly, but such savings could be used elsewhere to do so.

Bottom line:  Chris Johnson is still useful to Atlanta.  He’s not spectacular and he’s subject to strong performance swings.  But in absence of viable alternatives, he’s still our third baseman, and I would expect that will remain true through at least the 2015 season.

The Case for Trading Chris Johnson – TomahawkTake.com