The Decision: Ervin Santana
None of the major sports networks will answer my calls on the show proposal akin to the LeBron James prime time special regarding one Ervin Santana, so I guess I’ll put it in words for you here!
Now the the World Series has ended, the Braves face a number of decisions regarding their 2015 roster and 2014 free agents and arbitration eligible players. The focus here will be on the decisions around starting pitcher Ervin Santana
Ervin was a 2014 signing by the Braves after a long offseason seeking a contract. Rumors are not always to be believed, but the rumors were that Santana began the 2013-2014 offseason seeking a multi-year deal that totaled over $100M. Teams that could afford that sort of salary pursued different pitchers due to his demands and his ties to a qualifying offer, and when the Braves lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, Santana was still available and signed for the same amount as the qualified offer. At 31 years of age in 2014, Santana made 31 starts, throwing 196 innings with a 3.95 ERA and 3.39 FIP. He put up 8.2 K/9 and a 1.31 WHIP as well on the season. His ERA doesn’t look great, but his FIP does show he was unlucky in his appearances with the Braves in 2014 to some degree.
The Braves face two decisions with Santana:
Decision 1: Qualifying Offer
The qualifying offer amount was set recently at ~$15.3M. To me, this is a no-brainer. Even though he had his bumps last season, Fangraphs estimates his value for 2014 at $15.6M. If Ervin accepts the qualifying offer, the Braves would have a solid #3 pitcher secured for 2015, and if he rejects the offer, they get a draft pick in the compensation round after the first round of the 2015 MLB draft. This decision to me is very simple. That said, it would mean that the Braves are completely tapped out in salary, per many sources, if they sign Santana at the qualifying offer amount and pay their arbitration eligibles.
Decision 2: Contract Offer
So, whether or not he accepts the qualifying offer, the Braves could make a contract offer to Santana. The Braves are tight in payroll right now for the 2015 season. They will likely have around $15-25M to spend to acquire pitching, a backup catcher, and bench help without moving salary in trades. After 2015 (as it sits right now), the Braves will no longer have Justin Upton and Jason Heyward in their outfield, saving them some significant money, but hurting their offense by a substantial amount as well. A contract to Santana would be wisely set up to be heavy after 2015 if signed for multiple seasons. I would personally look to set up a contract with Santana that sits as an overall package of 3 years for $42M in base salary with $12M base in 2015, $14M base in 2016, and $16M base in 2017 with another $8-10M in incentives, with over half of those fairly easily achievable (30+ starts, 175+ innings, etc.). While I’m not sure Santana is the best choice for the Braves this offseason, I do believe this is the sort of contract required to sign him this offseason.
Final Decision
The qualifying offer is an easy offer to make, but then signing Santana after that may not be in the Braves’ best interest this offseason unless the payroll is upped to around $120-125M. As much fun as Ervin was on the field, he will likely be too expensive for the Braves in 2015, who will likely be looking more for the next contract tier below Santana to find their signings for the rotation.