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UPDATE: Ervin Santana Will Nix Qualifying Offer

By Alan Carpenter

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Ken Rosenthal of FOXSPORTS.COM has gone through the math … and the competition.  He is expecting Ervin Santana to reject the $15.3 million qualifying offer that the Braves tendered to him last week.

Today is the deadline for the decisions on Qualifying Offers.  Atlanta issued one such offer this off-season – to Santana – and we will hear his answer by 5pm EST today.

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    • Santana couldn’t get anyone to bite last year on his hope of a long-term contract for something in the 4 year/$52 million range… at least not with that draft pick compensation tag hanging around his neck.  The Orioles and the Blue Jays –

    especially their players

    – had significant interest.  Ultimately, the Orioles ended up blowing

    two

    draft picks:  one on

    Nelson Cruz

    , the other on

    Ubaldo Jimenez

    .

    The Blue Jays waited too long for Santana’s price to drop, though this writer is also guessing that Santana didn’t particularly want to go to Canada and play in the AL East.  When Kris Medlen went down to injury in mid-March, the Braves swooped in.

    So now we’re at that crossroads again:  will he or won’t he… even knowing the events of a year ago?

    Pros for taking the offer

    • $15.3 million certainly represents a raise above last year’s $14.1 million… and doesn’t preclude a future 3-4 year deal at his age (almost 32).
    • A series of qualifying offers would certainly exceed the value of the deal he is currently looking for… probably akin to last year’s request, and equivalent to the deals handed out to Jimenez, Matt Garza, and Ricky Nolasco – as Rosenthal pointed out.
    • The NL East is hardly a bad league to pitch in.  Santana should know, too:  he’s been in the AL West and AL Central.
    • He also knows that Atlanta needs pitching.
    • That draft pick compensation thing has been an issue for all players hovering around the value point of the Qualifying Offer.  It tends to make teams pause… for quite a while… before signing players with the attached draft penalty.

    Reasons to Reject the Overture

    • Rosenthal thinks he’s the more attractive option that the trio mentioned above, and thus should be worth a deal that at least matches those… which provides better security and built-in insurance against possible future injury.
    • He’s going to be a cheaper option for teams than a Jon Lester or Josh Beckett – probably others.
    • There really no reason why he couldn’t later turn around and attempt to negotiate with Atlanta again.  The team might actually be open to the notion of a 3-4 year deal at around $12-13m… if he’d take that little.

    We’ll know this afternoon… but I think I’m with Ken Rosenthal:  the QO will be rejected.

    UPDATE:  From Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, via twitter:

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