Financial Implications of the Heyward Trade

I’ve had the overnight to ponder over this deal… and frankly, I’ve now got the worst headache I’ve had in months.  There are still a number of things that bother me about how it all went down:

• The statements:  did Hart ever make any attempt to contact Jason Heyward‘s representatives (sounds like the answer is: no)
• The long-term:  can we know just how good Heyward will be … 2 years from now?  …five years from now?  No.
• The morale impact:  Freddie Freeman isn’t happy.  Craig Kimbrel likely isn’t either.  In 2014, he was poised to make the kind of money no closer has ever seen… and instructed his representative to get a deal done so that he – and hopefully those he came through the system with – could stay together for a while.   That’s now being torn asunder.

Ultimately, John Hart made the call – and I believe it was a call about acceptable risks about the future – not so much about extensions.  But now that he’s made that call, there are 2 clear benefits that have been derived from this trade – and Braves’ fans will have to focus on these benefits going forward – which are not insignificant:

• the Pitching
• the Money

Most of the rest of this will follow the money.

So… What Did He Get?

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The raw numbers are as follows:

• Jason Heyward, 2015:  $8.3 million (boosted after a performance bonus was reached in 2014)
• Jordan Walden, 2015:  $3.0 million (via MLBTR arbitration estimation)
• Shelby Miller, 2015:  ~$530,000 (he is still -re-arbitration until 2016)

So the net reduction in payroll – not yet accounting for whoever ends up occupying the vacated roster spot – is roughly $10.8 million.  Assuming for the moment that Heyward and Walden remained with the Braves after 2015, that number jumps up dramatically – likely another $12-14 million next year, but that speculation is not terribly meaningful right now.

The important part, though, is that Hart managed to do two important things in one shot:  he found a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm (under team control through 2018), and freed up cash.

What Could He Do with the Cash?

Allow me to present a couple of scenarios:

• B.J. Upton is still due $46.3 million over the next 3 seasons. We have already speculated (regularly) about the “package deal” scenario… one in which a desirable player is traded with Melvin to another team.  Now the possibility is that a significant check could be added as well.  So yes – the chances that the elder Upton could be successfully moved have just increased… and it might not cost us a pitcher.
• A lot of folks are pointing to the fact that Seattle is no longer on Justin Upton‘s no-trade-to list.  Seattle clearly wanted him two years ago.  They are still looking for a RH power bat.  They still are dangling Taijuan Walker.  Ryan told you all about that yesterday.  The sale of Justin Upton seems inevitable now, for if you didn’t think hometown Jason Heyward would sign an extension, then how would you expect Justin to do so – especially now?

So if/when Justin is moved, then that frees another $14.7 million (I’d better type faster, Hart could do it before lunchtime).  Now you have over half of B.J.’s remaining salary available in cash to use as leverage to trade him.  Oh – and you have a rotation that looks like this:

• Julio Teheran    (under contract through at least 2019)
• Mike Minor        (under team control through 2017)
• Alex Wood          (under team control through 2019)
• Shelby Miller     (under team control through 2018)
• Taijuan Walker (under team control through 2020)

… along with a stable of top-shelf studs waiting in the wings:  Lucas Sims, Tyrell Jenkins, Jason Hursh (not even mentioning the capable subs we used last year:  David Hale, Gus Schlosser, Ian Thomas).

Yes – Hart still would need to rebuild the outfield… since, under this scenario, he trades all of them away.  But he still would have options, for without B.J., he’d have another pile of cash to use to buy them.

Hopefully so – for we don’t want to turn the outfield into a golf course.