Breaking Up is Hart to Do

No, I’m not about to apologize to Neil Sedaka for that title – and yes, I AM that old!!  But so is John Hart, as this is not his first rodeo, either.

As Jayson Stark reminded me yesterday, rebuilding a club – a franchise, even – is not a foreign concept for Hart.  This was his signature achievement as he transformed a floundering Cleveland Indians as part of a greater transformation in that city.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Stadium

In 1991, Hart was elevated to the GM chair in Cleveland.  The Indians finished 7th that year.  But that was no big deal.  They had finished higher than 4th place in their division exactly once since 1960 – a single third place finish in 1968.  Even that was 16.5 games behind, so it wasn’t like the Indians were competitive even that year.  They played at Cleveland Municipal Stadium – the “Mistake by the Lake” – built in 1931.  They were in a city seemingly more famous for having the Cuyahoga River (technically) catch fire in 1969.

Things were about to change.  A lot.

While Hart was transforming his team, team ownership had already been working with the public on the facilities.  Plans were developed way back in 1986.  A stadium tax was approved in 1990 and in 1994, a new ballpark, christened Jacobs Field, was opened.  It had half the capacity of the cavernous Municipal Stadium, but was located downtown and had all of the (then) modern amenities – and paid for via a partnership between namesake Richard Jacobs (the Indians owner) and the public.

But while the fans would come once to see the shiny new stadium, a viable team was needed to keep them coming back.  Hart went to work immediately, and the improvement was both obvious and consistent:

• 1991:  57-105
• 1992: 76-86
• 1993: 76-86
• 1994: 66-47 … 2nd place at the time of the strike
• 1995: 100-44.  First place and a World Series berth.

From that point forward, Hart’s team was a perennial contender, winning 99,86, 89, 97, 90, and 91 games in the years that followed through 2001.  The Indians made the playoffs 6 out of  those 7 years and saw the World Series twice (falling to Atlanta in 1995 and the Florida Marlins in 1997).  But then Hart opted to move on.

Since then, the Indians have struggled to maintain that momentum.  In the 13 years that followed, Cleveland has made the playoffs twice (once via Wild Card), and did not advance on either of those occasions.

How Did This Happen?

Cleveland’s Progressive Field. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Field#mediaviewer/File:Progressive_Field.jpg

The driving force with Hart’s Cleveland teams was offense… a stark contrast from what he finds here in Atlanta at this time.  After the 1991 season, Hart recognized a diamond in the rough, and executed a trade:  he sent catcher Ed Taubensee and pitcher Willie Blair – which might have seemed to be a stiff price at the time – for an outfielder that hit just .203 in 20 games for the Astros in 1991… despite high promise.

His name was Kenny Lofton.

A lot of Cleveland’s transformation can’t necessarily be tied to John Hart:  Albert Belle was drafted in the 2nd round of the 1987 draft by Cleveland.  Jim Thome was pulled in the 13th round of the 1989 draft… the same year Hart joined the organization as a “special assignment scout”. Charles Nagy arrived in 1988.  But Manny Ramirez was drafted in 1991 (1st round).  He also filled in the pitching gaps by acquiring players such as Orel Hershiser and Dennis Martinez.  It’s fair to say that while the pieces were there, he (a) finished putting the puzzle together; and (b) didn’t mess it up… as so many GMs are apt to do (see Kevin Towers, for one).

The Atlanta Challenge

As Stark points out – and Hart told him:  “this ain’t Cleveland.”  Atlanta is a town that is now used to winning baseball.  The Schuerholz/Cox era made that happen.  Frank Wren more-or-less sustained that, but it is now pretty clear that there was a cost to his approach:  personnel.  The personnel cost was two-fold:  Wren’s scouts disappeared – one by one – and then it became evident that there was a talent price to be paid as well – the farm system rankings have dropped precipitously in the past several years.

In swift moves, John Hart has restored – and even bolstered – the scouting department.  Roy Clark is back.  George Blakeley is now on board for International scouting (Did you notice that the Yankees have now signed 10 of the top 30 rated international players this year?  Guess who would have supervised that?).  Nearly everyone hired by Frank Wren is gone.  It was a sweeping purge – all intended to get back to the basics of scouting and player development.

But changes in scouting will require 4-5-6 years to see developing fruit from the changes.  In the meantime, there are several solid prospects coming through the system, and Hart isn’t quite throwing the babies out with the bath water… although there was one:  Kyle Wren.

The deck has been cleared for Jose Peraza to make his case this Spring.  It’s probably a coin flip to say whether he makes the opening day roster, but this writer is betting that he gets all of the innings needed to prove his worth – just as Tommy La Stella had the same opportunity last Spring.  My bet is that Peraza is leading off for the major League club by sometime in June… at least.

Going Forward

But that alone will not be sufficient for the Atlanta faithful.  These fans want to see wins – whether the focus is on 2017 and SunTrust Park or not.  The good news is that Hart does have options.  Good options.

PITCHING – The rotation currently stands at Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller.  The 5th spot is up for grabs, but I do expect a signing of a veteran pitcher before Spring.

The External Options:

• The pie-in-the-sky option is clearly Jon Lester.  That would be incredible, but we’d still have to call this a 10% chance at best.  But then again, it’s truly his call to make.
• The next best option might be Taijuan Walker – via a trade with Seattle for either Evan Gattis or Justin Upton.
• Jake Peavy is still out there.  So is Ryan Vogelsong, Jason Hammel, Brett Anderson, Justin Masterson and others.  So is Kris Medlen, even.
• These are all good, solid options – nothing really to be concerned with here.

OFFENSE – This will be the bigger problem, for the hope may be that the pitching staff can at least keep the 2015 Braves “in” most games, even if the offense is lacking.  But in trading away the biggest assets – the power bats – Hart is attempting to leverage those assets in a market starved for that very commodity.  That should mean an excellent return via trade.  But replacing 50-ish homers and 200 RBI is a tough thing given the scarcity of run scoring we had.

So assuming that Justin Upton and Gattis are moved (along with Heyward)… the External Options are:

• Yasmany Tomas.  He plays a corner outfield spot and hits the ball real hard… when he hits it.  If he signs with Atlanta, Kevin Seitzer should pounce on him immediately.  The stars could actually align to make this happen.
• Alex Rios.  Yep, he’s 34 and his power is gone.  That’s why the power bat market runs through Atlanta.
• Colby Rasmus.  Centerfielder… just in case… well, you know.
• Nick Markakis.  The most expensive option (aside from Nelson Cruz, who I’m leaving off this list).  Probably also the most consistent performer.
• Emilio Bonifacio.  Kind of like a better version of Jose Constanza.
• That’s it… which is why the Braves could develop into a punch-n-judy speed club… sooner than later.

Hart will have money and options…

• $11m saved from the Heyward deal
• Another $10m saved from non-tenders (Medlen, Beachy, Pena, Venters)
• Not paying Ervin Santana or Gavin Floyd ($18m saved)
• Likely another $14.5m whenever Justin Upton is dealt

That’s a pretty sizeable pile of cash… so the challenge for Hart over the next month will be this:  don’t screw it up.

But Hart’s done this before, right?  And that leads me one more Sedaka lyric: “Don’t say that this is the end”.