Risk/Reward: Braves Talking With Kris Medlen

Rumblings are out this morning about the Braves trying to work out something to keep Kris Medlen on the team beyond today’s non-tender deadline:

I am not nearly going so far as to suggest “tender for both” as yet.  Brandon Beachy represents a low-risk, high-reward play, as his likely arbitration salary figure would come in somewhere in the $1.5 million range. I can see him being tendered without a lot of excess thought.

The reason for the discussions with Kris Medlen has to be because the Braves do not wish to swallow the full $5.8 million expected at arbitration… particularly when they currently have no idea how well Kris will be able to handle the season. 

Arbitration contract deals do not have to include incentives or performance bonuses – in fact, most of them do not.  The only time that discussions occur are at this time frame – and that because there’s a real danger that the player involved might be set free.

UPDATE:  WHEN MIGHT HE BE READY TO PITCH?

This just in from David O’Brien:

Earlier today, he reported that Medlen has experienced no “setbacks” to date – but it’s still early in the process.

Possible Parameters of a Deal

In basic terms, Kris Medlen is now on his 3rd and final arbitration year – normally making him a free agent in 2016.  But with his second Tommy John surgery now just 8 months in the rear-view mirror, nothing is normal or routine.  Thus I would expect something to be worked out akin to this (speculation on my part):

• $3 million base salary
• $1 million performance bonuses for each of these milestones:  100, 130, 160 innings.
• Option of $10 million for 2016 which vests if he hits 160 innings in 2015.
• Those performance numbers may be wildly optimistic given the comeback timeline I just inserted above, but… just pick some numbers… the basic idea is the same.

That would be a win-win for both sides:  if Medlen can pitch,he’ll likely pitch effectively and that would certainly be worth the bonuses.  If he can make it through the full season, then it provides a substantial reward for 2016 and sets him up for full free agency in 2017.

But again:  given the discussions, I do think there is still a risk that the Braves cut him loose if no agreement can be reached.  The degree that the two sides can work together may be an indication on Kris’ desire to stay and/or other “feelers” (i.e., meddling) that might have been heard by his agent up until this point.

We will see as the day progresses.