Rebuilding: Are the Braves at the Tipping Point?

Schuerholz: “We’ve never used the term rebuilding nor do I ever want to hear it used. We think we can improve our MLB team” #Braves

— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) December 16, 2014

The “R” word. Most Braves’ fans are hoping that “R” is for “Reload”.

The big question right now is whether that word is “Rebuilding.” John Hart himself has been working he way methodically through the off-season, seemingly unwilling to commit in either direction with “all options open.” But one has to wonder if that decision hasn’t already been made.  

What the Braves Have Been Doing

He is a list of players on the 25-man roster that Atlanta opened the 2014 season with who are no longer on the team:

• PITCHERS:          Ryan Buchter, Aaron Harang, Gus Schlosser*, Anthony Varvaro**, Jordan Walden
• CATCHERS:         Gerald Laird, Ryan Doumit
• INFIELDERS:      Ramiro Pena, Dan Uggla
• OUTFIELDERS:  Jordan Schafer, Jason Heyward

* – Gus Schlosser was non-tendered, but yesterday re-signed a minor league deal to remain with the Braves, though off the 40-man list. ** – Anthony Varvaro is still technically with the team, but has been DFA’d and will likely be elsewhere by Christmas.

That’s 11 of the 25 – to start with. This list does not include Tommy La Stella, who was traded to the Cubs. It does not include Ervin Santana, who began the season with extended Spring Training. It does not include Cory Gearrin, Kris Medlen, Jonny Venters, or Brandon Beachy.

Adding all of these makes 17 of 31 names that were traded, released, non-tendered or DFA’d since the beginning of 2014.

Of course there’s still one more name (at least) that is likely to be gone – perhaps before next week: Justin Upton. 18 of 31 perhaps?

When you have 58% roster turnover in a single year, does that constitute a “rebuild?”

Okay, but how about the regular position players?  Sure: Second base has been recycled twice, Catcher, Right field, and (shortly) Left Field as well. That’s roughly 50% of the 8 positions – depending on how you count everything.

And of course the pitching rotation is in the midst of its own transformation, so it’s hardly been exempt from the upheaval.

What Others Have Been Doing

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The Mets and Phillies

have been… well, pretty much nothing so far this off-season.

Philadelphia

traded away

– which could actually end up making them a little better as the season goes along.

The Mets are putting their hopes in rejuvenated pitching, starting with Matt Harvey. But they also finished second in the division last year – without Matt Harvey and without Noah Syndergaard.  All that and a Rookie of the Year in Jacob deGrom – leading them to put Dillon Gee and/or Jon Neise on the “available to trade” list.  If they can find any offense at all, they are going to be trouble.

The Nationals are also tweaking things around the edges, but their edges were already in pretty good shape. The major changes are the loss of Adam Laroche – a calculated move so that a healed Ryan Zimmerman can take first base – and a decision to allow Rafael Soriano to walk away in favor of Drew Storen, who mostly had this closing gig figured out by the end of the year.

The big changes in the NL East have come in Miami, which is trying to assemble a fantasy team. Already last year, they had a surprisingly good offense, ranking 7th in the NL in runs scored and batting average.  Now they’ve added speed (Dee Gordon and his 64 stolen bases) to a team that was nearly last in steals, and now Michael Morse to supplement 1B Garrett Jones and their outfield.

Oh, by the way: they also added pitching.  Mat Latos and (maybe?) Dan Haren join the staff… one that had already baffled Atlanta hitters a lot in 2014… yeah, okay, a lot of teams did that to us. Jose Fernandez may be back later in the year as well.  Clearly, though, the Marlins should rank at least second in current NL East projections for 2015, and could definitely threaten the Nationals.

Can the Braves Compete With That?

Braves’s new hitting coach,

. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, they’re in a position in which you’d have to honestly say “not really.”  If everything goes right in 2015, then I could give you a better answer.  What things?  These:

• Evan Gattis and Justin Upton becomes forces of nature in the lineup – both hitting near .300 and both hitting at least 25 homers, driving in 90-100.  Meanwhile, Freddie is Freddie:  hitting .300 and driving balls off the wall regularly.
• Andrelton Simmons stops flailing; Chris Johnson makes better contact.
• Nick Markakis makes a full recovery and resumes hitting the way he did 2 years ago (near .300).
• B.J. Upton makes a credible step forward, hitting .240 with 15 homers of his own and reducing strikeouts to roughly 130-140.
• The pitching staff (Teheran, Wood, Minor, Miller, and Hale) all stay healthy and productive.
• The back of the bullpen holds together and Jim Johnson finds his mojo.

I’ll let the reader decide which line items are reachable – history suggests that some will be; many will not be.  You can certainly point to 2014 – a year that included Jason Heyward – and recognize that offensive failure is always an option.  This is why we have a new hitting coach.

Yes:  there are probably six hitters in the lineup capable of reaching the .290-.300 batting average plateau.  But that’s a tall order – particularly for some that need to un-learn some bad habits (Simmons).  But it is the offense in particular that must excel for Atlanta to compete successfully with Washington and Miami in 2015.

Therefore, if Justin Upton is ultimately traded… which I expect before Christmas… then that would take a large log off of the offensive fire.  One that cannot be replaced.

So as We Stand Here Today

…we are at that tipping point.  Remove Justin Upton and the team’s offensive fortunes change dramatically.  The Frank Wren model of bloops and blasts would be gone.  The Kevin Seitzer contact model would be in.  That’s not saying it’s a bad thing – but it’s a different thing.  It would be a team of reduced homers, reduced strikeouts, increased on-base average, more emphasis on speed, defense and pitching.

Do you call that a rebuild or a reload?

Maybe the answer lies in another “R” word:  the Results.