Did the Braves Just Get the Next Billy Hamilton?

Speed.  It’s something that the Braves have used precious little of over the past several years.  Atlanta actually finished in the middle of the pack in 2014 for stolen bases (95), although most of those were generated from Jason Heyward (20 – gone), Jordan Schafer (15, gone), and Emilio Bonifacio (12, gone).  Of the current roster, B.J. Upton matched Heyward’s team high and no one else hit double-digits.

Maybe this 2014 Braves team will strike out less and get on base a little more, but it’ll be a station-to-station offense; for at this point, I would have to project Atlanta 22nd or worse in steals for 2015.

But that’s why the list of Who’s Coming Soon is so much more interesting – and that includes a player picked up yesterday.

Meet Mallex Smith

[Smith] has succeeded on 80 percent of his pro attempts. By point of comparison, the otherworldly Billy Hamilton was safe on 82 percent of his steal tries”

was definitely targeted by the Padres

.  He was drafted out of High School (

he’s from Tallahassee, FL – so yes, they were watching from 2500 miles away

) in 2011 in the 13th round

and then again

by San Diego in 2012 in the 5th round.

He is now 21 – will be 22 in May- and saw both A and High-A leagues in 2014.  Combined, he hit .310 – better in High-A – and stole 88 bases, which led all players in all of minor league baseball.  Even better, his walk rate was right around 12%, giving Smith an OBP of over .400 for the year.

The Comps With Hamilton

Let’s start by comparing the tool ratings of each player, as reported on fangraphs.com on their respective player pages:

[table id=4 /]

For each of the grades – given on the 20-80 scale, the first number represents “current value” and the second “projected future value”.  There are some obvious things that stick out:

• The speed grade is maxed.  Honestly, from the reports I’m reading, if there was a higher grade that the scouts could give to Hamilton, they probably would.  It seems his speed is a tick above everyone else’s.  Nonetheless, 80 means “elite” and Smith still has that.  Jose Peraza, for example, who had 60 steals in 2014 between High-A and AA, grades a 70 with speed.  Ozhaino Albies seems to also grade out at 80.
• The “hit” grade for Smith is a bit of a head-scratcher.  His stats in low-A ball (2013) were okay – .262 – but have been increasing through 2014… even surpassing .300 in the 2014 Arizona Fall League against much better – and varied – pitching.  So that ’20’ grade already seems rather out-of-line given the results in 3 leagues during 2014.
• One of Hamilton’s obvious strengths is in fielding – the Fielding Bible awards put him 3rd in the majors in 2014 (should have been 2nd, except for a couple of inexplicable votes).  Here Smith lags a bit, though Kiley McDaniel suggests on fangraphs “that kind of closing speed means only small improvements are necessary to be above average with the glove”.
• Likewise, Smith’s arm is a notch below that of Hamilton’s, but good enough for a center fielder.
• One big difference not noted well on this chart is the on-base potential of each player.  Hamilton does not typically walk very much (well below 10% on average).  In 2012, he bucked that trend and suddenly his OBA shot up over .400.  Smith has routinely been in the 11-15% walk rates – even when he didn’t hit well.  Thus his OBA has been in the high .300’s/low .400’s in almost all of his professional career thus far.
• In general, comparing the minor league numbers is tough – different leagues and different experiences, though both were of comparable ages as they progressed.  Smith seems to have the edge – slightly – in hitting thus far; Hamilton had more varied swings from high to low.

This OBA potential stands out from both Hamilton and Peraza, and certainly makes Smith a solid candidate as a future lead-off hitter – if indeed he can continue to hit at a decent clip.  The Carolina and Southern Leagues should be good tests of that for him over the next year or so.

One more comparison in terms of speed:  while Smith has minors-leading steal stats, they still do not compare against Hamilton’s incredible tear from 2011-2012:  103 steals followed up by 155.

But then there’s this interesting note from the Padres’ mlb.com site:  “Smith has all of the attributes necessary to run wild on the basepaths. He has the speed, and he has the know-how, as he has succeeded on 80 percent of his pro attempts. By point of comparison, the otherworldly Billy Hamilton was safe on 82 percent of his steal tries in the Minors.”

So he’s getting on base more often and stealing with essentially the same success rate.  That’s a good combination, and one to keep an eye on going forward.

Next: The Trade Centerpiece: Max Fried

So How Close is that Comp Really?

Yes, the grades for Hamilton seem to be a little better in some categories, but frankly to me, not enough to justify that wide a difference in the projected future value (40 vs. 65?).  Indeed, many reports still wonder if Hamilton will get on base at a sufficient high rate to justify putting him in the lineup every day (.292 OBP in 2014 over 152 games).  But if Mallex Smith can continue to walk at a high rate and hit something in within reach of .300, that’s certainly of high value to Atlanta.

Heck, Kenny Lofton hit .299 for his career with an OBP of .372 – walking roughly 10% of the time.  Rafael Furcal, while with Atlanta, hit around .285 with an 8-9% walk rate and .350-360 OBP.  That will play if Smith can sustain something close to that.

I would argue that the Braves thought the same, since they had several options to choose from – and indeed may have had to give up Aaron Northcraft to pacify the Padres on this deal.  Whether that was for Smith or someone else matters little:  the Braves effectively selected Smith and got him.

Is he Billy Hamilton?  May be a tick slower (but still a blur) and might be less spectacular in the outfield.  But might hit just as well, and steal just as well since he also gets on base a bit better.

It’s arguable, but it sounds close enough for me to keep a close watch on Mallex Smith’s progress.