Atlanta Braves Farm System Reminiscent of 2009
By Ryan Cothran
The Atlanta Braves Farm System has been down…
…for a good half decade. Much of that had to do with the graduating of so many homegrown Top Prospects. Take a gander at this list of A/B prospects that have made it to the Majors with the Braves or other teams over the past 5 seasons:
Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Dunn, Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, Tyler Flowers, J.J. Hoover, Jeff Locke, David Hale, Tyler Pastornicky, Christian Bethancourt, Tommy La Stella, Joey Terdoslavich, Alex Wood.
There might be more and there are obvious omissions of A/B prospect status that have come through the Minors and have made large impacts (Evan Gattis, Shae Simmons), but that is an incredible crop of talent that’s galloped through the system. However, one would be naive to think that this is the sole reason why the Braves’ farm system has taken a hit.
There have been trades. Lots of them. Even long after the system was past top-tier. And there have also been poor drafts. Especially in the top-rounds and with hitting talent, the one “hit” being the 704th pick of the 2010 draft, Evan Gattis. While there are players of impact on those lists, there’s also gaping holes in rounds 4-10 where there’s essentially no impact players or prospects. However, things have changed for the farm system, and it’s for the good. Very good…
Atlanta Braves’ New, Shiny Farm System
My favorite evaluator of Minor League talent, John Sickels of minorleagueball.com has been rating farm systems for quite a while now. Prior to the 2009 season, the Braves had a system on the rise, but a young crew of players likely at least a year away from making an impact on the Major League Scale. Here’s his top-13 from that year with a brief description of each player’s ranking:
"1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A-: A personal favorite, though he actually hit fewer homers than expected. Broad base of skills.2) Frederick Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: Debating whether or not to move him up to A-. Not as broad a skill base as Heyward, but power and youth stand out.3) Thomas Hanson, RHP, Grade B+: Looks good to me, though will need some Triple-A to put on the finishing touches. Number Two starter ceiling.4) Jordan Schafer, OF, Grade B+: I should have put him on the Rotowire Top 100 list. Will be in the 50/50 for the book. Power, speed, defense, OBP, and played well without the juice.5) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Love the power and walks, main question is glove.6) Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Grade B: Excellent ceiling. I cannot prove why objectively, but I worry a bit about his arm. Needs sharper command too.7) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: I hesitate to grade relief prospects this highly, but I can’t ignore his early dominance.8) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade B-: Would like to see more power, other skills coming along.9) Kris Medlen, RHP, Grade B-: Am I overrating him? Looks like he could be a really good swingman.10) Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-: I’ve liked him since he was in high school. Like Rohrbough, worry some about injuries.11) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B-: Needs better command, but a high ceiling guy.12) Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade B-: A long way away, but a high ceiling.13) Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: Like DeVall, a long way off, but fits into organization philosophy perfectly."
Only 3 guys on that list made it to the Major Leagues that year, 1 opened the year as the starting CF (Schafer), one earned a spot in the rotation a few months into the year (Tommy Hanson), and one who stuck around in a relief role (Kris Medlen). 10 of that 13 stayed in the Minor Leagues the entire year, grooming themselves to become Major Leaguers. Of the 13, 8 of the prospects have had Major League careers, 5 have produced 8 WAR or more. As you can see, prospects have potential to be stars, regular Major Leaguers, role-players, or busts. With that being said, this year’s farm system is very reminiscent of 2009.
Sickels reviewed the Braves farm system before the plethora of trades/signings that have reshaped 2015, making 2015’s season seemingly worse at the Major League level, but completely revamped in the Minors. Using Sickels’ grades for the Braves that were in the system during his evaluation, *ballparking his grades from the previous year of players the Braves have acquired (*adjusting their grades +/- a half grade dependent upon success or lack thereof, or injury), let’s take a look at the new list of A/B prospects, or at least my best guess:
1. Jose Peraza, INF, Grade B+
2. Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade B+
3. Max Fried, LHP, Grade B
4. Manny Banuelos, P, Grade B
5. Jace Peterson, SS, Grade B
6. Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-
7. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-
8. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Grade B-
9. Braxton Davidson, OF-1B, Grade B-
10. Kyle Kubitza, 3B, Grade B-
11. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B-
12. Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade B-
13. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade B-
See any similarities? While there’s a hole at the top with the “can’t miss” blue chip prospect, the Braves have revamped a farm system that now has 13 grade B prospects, 3 of which could regain blue chip status (Fried, Banuelos, Vizcaino) if returns from injury go well. There are some questions regarding others, three being Dustin Peterson (not to be confused with Jace), Daniel Winkler and Dian Toscano.
Peterson struggled at 19 years of age, showing power, but striking out a ton with little to no tools aside from showing up in his 2nd professional season. Most times, young guys like this keep their grade another year after a “hiccup”, and Peterson’s was a B-. However, as abysmal of a season as it was, I had to be true to myself and downgrade him to a C+.
Toscano, if he’s even able to be considered a prospect since he signed a Major League deal (I can’t find any reason why he would not, but I’m not going to put him on the list until I receive confirmation one way or the other), is such an unknown to most that it would really be hard to rank such a player without seeing him play for at least a half year in the Minors. He could easily be considered a B prospect, but I’ll hold off judgment until I know more.
Winkler was having an exceptional 2014 campaign, coming off an exceptional 2013, before he caught the Tommy John bug after starting his 12th game of the year. Prior to the 2014 season, he was ranked a C+ prospect and there’s no doubt that ranking was on the rise, before the injury as he pitched 70 innings of 1.41 ERA baseball and a WHIP of 0.7. Still, he’ll be on the shelf for the entire 2015 campaign which likely puts a damper on his prospect status, of what was no doubt going to be in the B range.
So whether or not you’re as depressed as I am with the outlook on the 2015 Major League season, there are many reasons to get to know all of your Braves’ Minor League affiliates this upcoming season. Go Braves!