Predicting Atlanta Braves future moves…
By Ryan Cothran
Last year’s off-season, the Atlanta Braves MLB fans were on a HIGH!
Coming off of a 96 win season, the Braves went extension crazy, signing Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, and Julio Teheran to multi-year deals, then extending Chris Johnson during the 2014 season. The extensions proved to be good ideas for all but one, but the fruits of Wren’s labors soured in the stomachs of the front office as the Braves turned in their worst season since 2008. The high-K, high power offense that drove 2013, drove the offense off a cliff in 2014. Needless to say, there needed to be change, but did anyone expect this?
Atlanta Braves Major League fans are TICKED!
This year? Not so much. The Braves have now traded the following guys from the 2014 season:
4. Justin Upton
7. Evan Gattis
To the average fan, this turn of events might be too much to handle. For families that watch 20-30 games/year and frequent the Ted a handful of times per season, buying their children jerseys of their favorite players, losing so many familiar faces, and fan favorites, might keep them away from the ol’ ballpark this upcoming season. Or, for those fans that are strictly about the production at the Major League level, Minors be damned, this season is almost certainly going to disappoint. Let me say this… these fans better hold on because it’s not likely to get any better for the next 2 years, but the bumpy ride will have its slew of rewards when the time comes. So, what can we expect in 2015 and 2016, the last years the Braves call Turner Field home? I’m glad you asked. Put on a helmet, it’ll be bumpy.
Atlanta Braves Cornerstone Players
The Braves have a few cornerstone players that will almost certainly be on the team when the ribbon is cut for Suntrust Park. In my opinion, they are as follows:
There could be more as younger players such as Jose Peraza or Alex Wood develop, but for now I think those are the untouchable Braves. Some might question Kimbrel, and I’m one that is with that group. Closers are still overvalued in this market and Kimbrel is the best closer in the game. Trading him now would likely bring back a package larger than anything we’ve seen this offseason. However, that comes with a steep price. Fan favorites, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Kris Medlen, and Justin Upton are gone. Last year, Freddie Freeman was the #1 jersey sold donning the Atlanta Braves (5th overall in MLB) logo, followed by Jason Heyward, then Craig Kimbrel. Now that Heyward is gone, the Braves #2 is the best closer in baseball that is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018, the first 2 years in the new stadium. Regardless of what might be the smart move, I think Kimbrel is Welcoming Suntrust to the Jungle in its inaugural year. Teheran and Andrelton (an uncommon talent deserves better than to be mentioned by such a common last name as Simmons) are under team control for quite a while, and the contract is team-friendly. They will be here.
What Atlanta Braves will likely try to accomplish the next 2 seasons
I don’t think the trading is near over. In fact, aside from the cornerstone players, no one is safe from being sold. In my opinion, here is where the Johns will likely take the team over the next 2 years so they can go into 2017 with young, explosive talent.
1. Pitchers that become expensive will get traded. The Braves have spent this offseason acquiring a bucketload of pitchers that will likely be quality starters at the Major League level, and others that will be dominant relievers. Using simple math, there will be quite a large surplus when 2017 comes around and some of the oldies but goodies will be hitting the trade market.
A. Expect Mike Minor to be traded in the 2015 offseason. This year will be his 2nd year of being arbitration eligible. He’s a Super-2 meaning he’ll go to arbitration 4 times before becoming a free agent and players with 2 years of team control bring back a much larger package compared to those that would only have 1 and be viewed as a rental.
B. Expect Shelby Miller to be traded in the 2016 offseason. Shelby has 4 years of team control and in the 2016 offseason, he’ll be entering his 2nd year of arbitration. Unlike Minor, Shelby will only be arb-eligible 3 times, therefore will also have 2 years of control for the acquiring team.
2. Sell high on expensive free agents that aren’t cornerstone players. The Braves have 3 fairly large contracts, 1 that was signed before the 2013 season, one that was signed before the 2014 season, and one that was signed this offseason. Those contracts belong to B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson, and Nick Markakis.
A . Plan for B.J. and C.J.– You can bet your sweet pippy that if either of the first 2 have successful first halves in 2015, the Braves will be shipping them out and their contract to any taker.
B. Plan for Nick Markakis– While I’m not as confident that the Braves will deal Markakis if he excel, a performing Markakis at 11MM/year could be a very attractive piece to add for a team in need of a corner OF that has a good head on his shoulders. Look for the Braves to shop Markakis in 2016 should he be outperforming his projections and Braves underperforming.
3. Sell high on any Free Agent signings– The Braves have made a significant splash in the FA market this year, signing Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, A.J. Pierzynski, Alberto Callaspo, and Josh Outman to contracts. Don’t expect many of these guys to end the season with the Braves if the Braves are below .500 at the All-Star Break as they’ll likely be moved for farm-stockers.
4. Selling high on Relievers– Anthony Varvaro, David Carpenter, and Chasen Shreve have all been trade casualties thus far this year, and the Braves relief core is still busting at the seams with at least 10 relievers for 7 spots. The closer the player is to free agency, the more likely they’ll be traded over the next 2 years. Luis Avilan will become arb-eligible in 2016 and will likely be the first traded should he prove valuable between now and then.
There is good news, Atlanta Braves fans!
With all of the trades that will likely go on over the course of the next few seasons, the fan favorites, and those that come along that become fan favorites, will likely be there come 2017. Piggybacking on the trades will be younger, more dynamic prospects that will impact the Major League roster in the near future. Also, with a new stadium, comes new money! Unless the Braves find a taker for B.J. and C.J. sometime before the Suntrust opens, funds for 2017 will be tight, but there will still be money to go after a few big names. With the farm system on the rise throughout each level, due to the trades this offseason, and the Braves with still some strong core players, 2017 could be a glorious year! Ever been on a roller coaster for 2 years? Well, get ready, because it’s already started.