New Commish is on the Job: Baseball’s Already in Trouble

So much for the honeymoon… easing into the new chair… taking some time to evaluate the sport.  Nope – he’s having none of that.

Instead, let’s just go ahead and screw up the sport from Day 1.

ESPN interviewed Rob Manfred, the newly-minted commissioner of baseball and identified some of his priorities for the game.

In short – they don’t remotely match the concerns I have.

Here are the money quotes – reported from yahoo sports.com:

"Manfred made it clear that examining the pace of the game is first on his list of priorities, but not far behind will be finding ways to “inject additional offense into the game.”Without being prompted for an example, Manfred specifically mentioned he’d be open to pursuing the elimination of defensive shifts, which he says give the defensive team a competitive advantage."

I will address my opinion on what his priorities should be in a bit, but I can’t let these go unanswered.

INJECT ADDITIONAL OFFENSE

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Major league run scoring peaked in 2000, when teams averaged 5.14 runs scored per game – each

.  In 1981, the rate was 4.00.  There were spikes in 1986-87 (4.41, 4.72), then the numbers flattened again through the 1992 season.

In 1993 the run-scoring started booming:  4.60, 4.92, 4.85, 5.04… but of course we’re into the “Steroid Era” now, and that apparently had a big impact.  Run-scoring remained at an elevated level through around 2007 (4.80), then fell off dramatically:  4.65, 4.61, 4.38, 4.28, 4.32, 4.17, and finally 4.07 in 2014… the lowest level since 1981.

This is not a bad thing.

Apparently Manfred digs the long ball and is looking for non-steroidal ways to make that happen.  Hence…

ELIMINATE DEFENSIVE SHIFTS

…he throws out this trial balloon – a suggestion that actually changes the game.  Frankly, I hope that John Schuerholz (being on the rules committee) shoots this down in flames.

I want to set aside the question of enforcement of such a rule – that itself would be a comical thing (Joe Madden is probably already conjuring ways around this).  You thought the Infield Fly rule had loopholes…. wait until you see this rule.

Instead, though, answer this question:  is this The Most Critical Issue that baseball is facing?  The need to have teams score one more run per game?  That is going to attract more fans from around the world?

Wow.

And just think:  three-quarters of the baseball ownerships voted for this guy – presumably after being briefed on what his agenda for the sport would be.

Be glad, Mr. Commissioner, that we aren’t playing in the late 1960’s, when runs scoring bottomed-out at 3.42 runs per game.  Oh, that’s right… baseball messed around with the rules then, too:  they changed the mound height.  Yeah, that worked well… for 2 years.  In 1971-72, the runs-rate was back down to 3.89/3.69.

What other “competitive advantages” do you want to eliminate from the game, Rob?  Clayton Kershaw has to throw right-handed?  The Yankees have to play all their games in Boston?  The Rockies have to play at sea level?  The entire sport is about leveraging the competitive advantages you have earned!  Or maybe we should just play every game, but not keep score.  Would that help?

Proper Priorities

Baseball does have issues, and they are a lot more serious than this.  Let me tick off a few:

• Attendance.  Peaked in 2007, but we’re now roughly back to 2004 levels again (73.7 million in 2014).  Prices have skyrocketed, leaving a lot on the outside… the sport has ceased to be a ‘casual’ answer for family activities.
• Media Reach.  Yes, there are new apps to keep track of games.  But (a) radio reach is difficult to find unless you are an XM radio subscriber; and (b) the Television blackout rules seem designed to keep all fans away from the team they most like.

Memo to Manfred:  if your fans want your product, give it to them.  I have to laugh every time I hear the ‘MLB Extra Innings’ package promoted, for it’s a total lie.  It is not every inning of every game.  There are people living 300 miles away from Atlanta who cannot see Braves games with that subscription.  This does not enhance the reach of your sport.

• Pace of game / time of game.  There are things that can be done here, but frankly, pitch clocks aren’t one of them.  Commercial breaks are too long.  Batters leaving the box to do their “routines” are silly.  Starting games after 7pm means that younger fans may not get to see the end of a contest, and that’s wrong.  Most games could/should comfortably start at either 6:30pm or 7:00pm locally.  That gets them done by 9:30-10pm and all’s well.
• International Draft.  This is a big issue only because the large-market teams found a loophole in the current rules that’s big enough to drive a Caribbean cruise ship through.  The rules have to be fixed – quickly – and an international draft is the answer.

So you want an agenda for baseball?  There’s a start.  But if you want more offense, then tell hitters to go back to the pre-1990’s thinking:  less swinging for the fences, more hitting for average, more fundamentals of baseball.

At least Atlanta seems to be heading in that direction.