What If the Braves Manage to Land Olivera?

This is a topic I feel I’m being forced to write about, as I’m already on record suggesting that there’s no way the Braves should have any business getting into the sweepstakes for Cuban player Hector Olivera.

But the Braves aren’t listening, so this topic is about what kinds of roster gymnastics might happen if the club actually lands Olivera.

Hector’s Record

All of this comes from a great source: BaseballAmerica.com.

Hector is 6’2″, 220, 29 years old – 30 years old in April. On the video they posted, he actually looks bigger somehow. Was headed for stardom through 2010, but missed the 2012-13 seasons in Cuba’s national league and and played only sparingly in the field last year after returning from a “blood disorder”.

Speed: above average
Arm: Had once been above average. Not so much lately. Not a big concern if second base is his position; a bit more so for third.
Fielding: “steady defender”
Hitting: quick stroke, above-average power, uses all fields, good “strike-zone management.”

Overall, BA places him as the sixth-best Cuban player unsigned, and pegs him for either second or third base.

Braves’ Interest…and How Does This Work?

Atlanta has doubled-down on Olivera: around the weekend of January 21st, there was a 2-day showcase event that they attended. But on Saturday, Atlanta witnessed a private workout for him in the Dominican Republic in front of a bunch of high-ranking Braves’ executives: Fredi Gonzalez, John Coppolella, Gordon Blakeley, Roy Clark … and others. This was mentioned recently by both Fred and Jeff in separate posts, so I won’t dwell on the point.

So… yeah, there’s a lot of interest despite the limited field time over the past couple of years.

The Bigger Question: what do you do with him if you get him?

TODAY – BRAVES AT SECOND BASE

Oddly enough, this position was characterized as “weak” by Baseball America, despite a number of attempts to shore it up during this off-season. Right now, the position candidates are:

Jace Peterson (13th-ranked prospect)
Alberto Callaspo
Philip Gosselin
Jose Peraza (1st-ranked prospect)

TODAY – THIRD BASE

Likewise, the Braves have also bolstered this position recently:

Chris Johnson (under contract through 2017)
Alberto Callaspo
Rio Ruiz (11th-ranked prospect; top ten in MLB at the position)
Phil Gosselin (he plays every position)

More from Tomahawk Take

If you sign an almost-30-year-old player for the rumored $10-to-20 million, you’d better get him to the majors as soon as possible… which could mean as soon as April for Olivera.

The best scenario I can concoct for him looks like this:

Second base now
Third base once the Braves can move Chris Johnson – leaving space for Peraza

I personally want to see what Peterson can do at second… but in the long run, he’s not likely to hold up a top prospect like Peraza (especially since Peraza could be around for close to 10 years). Additionally, Olivera is probably going to be an improvement over Peterson once he gets acclimated to playing again (the video suggests to me that he’s close). So Peterson is ultimately liable to be the odd man out in this mix.

That scenario leaves at least three players out: Peterson, Johnson, and Ruiz. However, Ruiz is still ~3 years away from the majors, having completed a fine campaign in high-A ball in 2014. With one year per level, that brings him to Atlanta in 2017. Meanwhile, I suppose the Johnson and Peterson could ultimately be traded elsewhere.

With those thoughts in mind, that also suggests a somewhat limited contract period for Olivera: 3 years, or perhaps 3 years with either an opt-out or club option. That allows the Braves to hedge their bets for Ruiz while also giving Olivera incentive to excel and increase his payday for the future. But I’m not sure that kind of offer will get the player.

A CRAZY SCENARIO

There is another option – which would not be popular, for it involves trading Andrelton Simmons (who is under contract through 2020). Stick with me for a second here – and never mind how unpopular such a trade would be – here’s how it would work out:

Put Olivera at second base today… and for the duration of his contract
Trade Simmons for future OF help after the 2015 season
Promote Jose Peraza to the majors in 2016 as a Shortstop (which is his normal position)
Chris Johnson stays at third until Ruiz is ready to go (2017). If you want to move him in the meantime, then Peterson could also play third.

The Braves would actually not lose too much defensively at short by such a swap, and all players involved would be at their best positions. Depending on Simmons’ hitting, the offense might also be improved as well. This would also clear space so that the Braves could offer a longer deal (4 years? 5?) to Olivera… which would then run through his age 33 or 34 season.

[ Somebody may also consider Simmons for third base – I’m not sure about this myself, but while he’s certainly got the arm it, I don’t know that it’s a better solution. ]

I would not expect this to be the option selected by Atlanta, but it’s got to be something to consider.

Competition

Frankly, everything about this is a head-scratcher to me – there doesn’t seem to be any clean way to bring Olivera into Atlanta without messing up a bunch of guys already in place, though opinions do vary on the upsides of all involved. When you add to that Olivera’s soon-coming 30th birthday, I start making awkward faces as if somebody in the room just released a pungent gas. I just don’t like it.

But this isn’t about my opinion – it’s about the fact that Atlanta is obviously seriously interested – and what might happen if they actually win this contest.

The primary competition for Olivera seems to be the Padres, Giants, A’s and Braves (noting that there is yet another open showcase set for Feb. 11, so more could still join the party). But you could consider the Braves as front-runners, since the folks who handled Dian Toscano’s contract are apparently the same ones supporting Olivera.

At this point, all teams are awaiting clearance from major league baseball, which itself seems to be waiting on a US government agency that doesn’t seem to have any legal cares about any of these players at all. Once that smoke clears – it’s a guess – but I would personally expect the bidding frenzy to commence around mid-month, with a signing perhaps around the first week of March.

Fred was concerned about the cost… going upward of $20 million. However, that would be doled out over several years, so it’s actually not nearly that bad… plus if you drop another major leaguer in the process, then it’s close to a wash.

After all, he’s not getting any younger.

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