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By The Numbers: the Atlanta Braves Lost 60% of Their Homeruns, Now What?

By Fletcher Batts

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*This is the second installment of By The Numbers. Each installment is designed to be a conversation piece and focus only on one specific stat. We will deal with the sum of all of the installments prior to opening day after we are able to make better assumptions, predictions, and evaluations after watching THIS team in action in Spring Training

Today in By The Numbers, we will look at another stat from the Atlanta Braves offensive category: Home Runs

The Braves suffered a mild-to-severe power outage in 2014.

In 2013 we had 181 home runs (5th best in the league) but during the winter of 2013, someone must have been kicked in the balls repeatedly because we only managed to hit 123 (-58) in 2014 (9th WORST in the league).

Where did our power go?

Did Delilah show up and give all of our boys Mohawks in Spring Training? Did someone replace the Viagra with a shot of Epinephrine to numb the senses, slow down bat speed, make others to have double vision or go blind during at-bats? (Before you BJ Haters start spewing how much you hate him, in this category he actually had an increase over 2013 (+3)).

Aug 20, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Jason Heyward (22) doubles against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the Home runs contributors for 2013:

Here are the Home run contributors for 2014:

  • Justin Upton – 29 (gone) | +2
  • Evan Gattis – 22 (gone) | +1
  • Freddie Freeman – 18 | -4
  • B.J. Upton – 12 ( (still here) | +3
  • Jason Heyward – 11 (gone, I’m still trying to get over this one) | -3
  • Chris Johnson – 10 | -2
  • Andrelton Simmons  – 7 | -10
  • Ryan Doumit  – 5 (gone)
  • Ramiro Peña – 3 (gone) | even
  • Dan Uggla – 2 (gone) | -20
  • Emilio Bonifacio – 1 (gone)
  • Mike Minor – 1 | even
  • Phil Gosselin  – 1
  • Tommy La Stella – 1 (gone)

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There are a few on the list that we need to cross off the list IMMEDIATELY. Everything below Pena were flukes. Yes pitchers are athletes too. Yes some pitchers can hit and these are “ok” hitting pitchers but they do not get the at-bats that everyday hitters get, so we are taking that 2014 total down to 176 just to compare the annual stats with each other. Yes, even Stevie Wonder is bound to run into one if you give him enough reps (shameful joke, I know); that WAS a jab at you pitchers.

This is where most of you will say, “well homers were down because batters were not getting enough good pitches to hit” or “it doesn’t matter how many homers we have, all that matters is winning”.

My replies: It is the pitchers job to get the batter out, not to give him good pitchers. It is the hitter’s job to make solid contact and put the ball in play, preferably hitting it “where they ain’t”. No where in that equation does it state that the pitcher HAS to throw a strike down the middle of the plate. I am saying that some will not have quality at bats, we are ONLY looking at homeruns.

Also, the Kansas City Royals went to the big dance in 2014 while only hitting 95 homers in the regular season. Our top 6 home run producers hit more than they did as a team and yet the Royals still kept it competitive and made the playoffs (Giants hit 132 home runs conversely, only 11 more than us).

Jun 14, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis (24) is congratulated by a bat boy after a home run against the Los Angeles Angels in the eighth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Now seeing the power shortage, going into 2015 off season and knowing we need a bomber or 3, the average fan would think that the GMs and the other big wigs in the front office would sit down and have a come to Jesus meeting about our offense and ADD to it right?

As indicated in the last installment (How do the Atlanta Braves fix losing 39& of their hits) of By The Numbers, that did not happen.

Here are the numbers that we lost:

  • Justin Upton – 29
  • Evan Gattis – 22
  • Jason Heyward – 11
  • Ryan Doumit  – 5
  • Ramiro Peña – 3
  • Dan Uggla – 2
  • Emilio Bonifacio – 1
  • Tommy La Stella – 1

We traded, designated for assignment or did not offer contracts to 74 home runs.

That is 21 home runs less than what it took for KC to go to the playoffs.

To NOT be sarcastic, we are returning to Spring Training with 60% of our Home run numbers GONE!

Go grab a cup of Joe or a very strong adult beverage (grab me a couple too please) and come back to that stat.

60%

Sixty FREAKIN Percent….

Why?

We’ve already looked at the 39.5% of our hits being gone and now we also see that 60% of our home runs are gone.

I need a Valium (heavy dosage please, I will wash it down with my vodka)

I am not crying “oh woe is me” or walking around the house with my lips poked out but let’s be real.

If a club knows it has offensive issues, why do you let such a large portion of said offense go?

Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics left fielder Jonny Gomes (15) before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Well, let’s weigh our returns and their 2014 numbers…

These are direct returns. These are NEW signings and/or acquisitions directly related to the trades or non-tenders listed above.

*Kelly Johnson’s numbers were not used since he signed a 2015 MINOR league contract. I am only using numbers from Major League Players listed on the current 40 man roster as of 02/09/2015.

**Bethancourt has ZERO homers at the major league level, as does Eury Perez and Dian Toscano so adding in any “actual” numbers is not advised. These are not assumptions or speculations, these actually happened.

Minus our losses of 74 home runs plus our addition of what the new guys contributed with 29, we now have a grand total of 78.

Looking at the losses and seeing the production of the replacements/signees I have to assume that either:

  1. Management is expecting career years from the new acquisitions or
  2. The production of home runs will have to come from somewhere other than the new guys, perhaps internally
  3. Someone in the front office knows Jesus PERSONALLY and is expecting a few miracles to happen

I have always been a proponent of letting our kids from the minors play but we never know what these guys bring to the field; at least not until we see it in action during spring training.

We knew what Jason brought because he made an impact in spring training.

We knew what Gattis was capable of because he was knocking satellites out of orbit with his moon shots against major league pitching.

These other guys have GREAT projections, high ceilings, formidable WAR, OBP, etc etc…. whatever.

I need to see them play.

I need to see who will come to Spring Training on a mission to knock the damn cover off the ball with solid and consistent contact and yet disciplined enough not to strike out in over half their at bats.

I need to see what the new (and still old) hitting coaches have in store for these hitters.

Truthfully, I don’t want to see many homers.

I would rather see gaps being filled.

I want to see more line drives flaming past the lines and bloop hits just over the 2nd baseman’s glove.

I need to see more fly balls that are slapped just out of reach falling in safely FOR US…

I need to see some hits.

Abandon the home run ship…

I know “Chicks Dig the Long ball” but with this cast of characters we will be better suited formulating a real plan to just play small ball, slap ball, kick ball, or “see it-hit it”.

This roster is built for MC Fredy G and it is better apt to use his “move the line” philosophy than any other roster he has been given the task to manage. I hope that it is by design. I have my fingers crossed that he is finally given the type of lineup he needs to succeed.

Because By the Numbers, we lost 60% of our Home runs.

The numbers don’t lie.

**addendum: before you guys start foaming at the mouth with irrational debate about me not properly noting the additions, or misrepresenting the facts I say to you all that is the furthest from the truth. I don’t lie about stats; you can look them up yourself at your leisure. With each of you, as you do your own research, you will see that “Yeah we lost hits and home runs but”…. Ah, no buts. Fact still remains; we lost those players who contributed those hits and homers. That is something that we can not dispute, these supposed gains have yet to play themselves out but we will deal with them in the conclusion of By the Numbers.

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