Will Mike Minor Bounce Back in 2015?
Heading into the 2014 season Mike Minor was one of the most consistent performers in the Atlanta Braves rotation. He was just coming off a season in which he posted career best marks in ERA (3.12), FIP (337), WHIP (1.09), innings (204.2), and strikeouts (181).
A sensitive surgery in the 2013 offseason led to Minor starting his throwing program later than normal, which led to a few setbacks and missing all of April. Once he returned to action he was not himself, getting off to an mediocre start in May. Followed by an awful June and July in which he posted a 5.90 and a 7.00 ERA respectively.
More from Braves News
- Braves News: Braves re-sign Stephens, Will Atlanta extend Max Fried?, more
- Notable Atlanta Braves Reunions Since 2003: Pitcher Edition
- Braves News: Braves re-sign Jackson Stephens
- Braves News: Braves prospect rankings, Correa deal with Mets at risk, more
- Why the Atlanta Braves won’t extend Max Fried
For the season Minor posted a 6-12 record with a 4.77 ERA. His walk rate was only 6.9 percent, but his strikeout rate dipped nearly 4 percent to 18.8 percent, the lowest of his major league career.
Rather than struggling with command out of the zone, Minor left too many balls over the middle of the plate last season. It’s not unheard of for pitchers to struggle with command, rather than velocity, when coming back from an injury. That was absolutely the case with Minor.
He allowed a .323 batting average on balls in play, which is .27 points higher than his career average of .296. Some of that can be attributed to bad luck, but some of it is poor pitch location.
Minor eventually got better as the season progressed, his ERA before the All-Star break was 4.86, while after the break it dipped to 4.65. Still, that number is not nearly what you would expect from a player of Minor’s caliber.
Now the question remains; can Mike Minor have a bounce-back season in 2015?
If you buy into FIP (fielding independent pitching), it suggests that he was not quite as bad as his ERA indicates. His FIP of 4.39 suggests that some of his failures boil down to bad luck, and his defense not giving him much help. That being said, FIP should be taken with a grain of salt (like any statistic). There are plenty of variables that go into a pitcher performing poorly, but when it all comes down to it, a pitcher is responsible for their own successes and their own failures to a certain degree. It’s on Minor to get himself back on track in 2015.
Various projection systems are luke-warm on Minor recovering from last season’s struggles. The Steamer (FanGraphs) projects a 9-11 season, with a 4.02 ERA and 4.04 FIP in 173 innings. Dan Szymborki’s ZIPS is a bit higher on Minor, projecting him to finish with a 3.68 ERA, a 3.85 FIP, and 2.7 zWAR. Considering the results last season, I’m sure most fans will take either of these projections.
I tend to believe that Minor will indeed bounce back this season. Entering the season without injury, and on his normal timeline, should make for a better start to his season than in 2014. According to early reports, Minor has looked good during his Spring Training bullpen sessions. How much of that is legitimate, and how much of that is PR fluff is up for debate. I’ll go with an optimistic approach and say that any positive comments about his current form is good news.
Minor regaining his form will be huge if the Braves are going to surpass expectations, and make a run towards the postseason. A rotation comprised of Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, Mike Foltynewicz, and the 2013 version of Minor could be one of the best pitching staffs in the National League. Or at least a rotation capable of keeping the Braves in games if the bats sputter as expected.
Next: Craig Kimbrel is changing it up