Update on Hector Olivera and the Braves Pursuit

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I had been surprised over the weekend after

agents for Olivera openly suggested

that their player was going to end up with a contract exceeding $70 million.

That was a surprise for multiple reasons, including the player’s age, possible health issues on multiple fronts (the UCL injury ‘troll’ rumor has been sticking around – never mind the blood clot from 2012), and possible stamina issues.  All of these (plus the need for a 4-5 year contract term) explain my own reticence to have the Braves sign Olivera.

Kiley McDaniel seemed to confirm all of these red flags and openly questioned the notion of a premium contract price on Sunday in a piece for fangraphs.

This is a quick look at the events that have transpired since then.

Monday

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports was the first to directly connect the Braves to Olivera – and this came at midday:

I’ll go ahead and add his follow-up from this morning:

Not surprising at all.  The Braves have been interested, and have obviously continued their pursuit.  At the same time, the typical restraint is being made:  not going to break the bank in order to sign the player.

Tuesday

Things are changing.  Apparently, Olivera is upset about the way his agent is handling these negotiations.  So even as bids “are presently coming in”, Hector Olivera has changed his representation.  That from Jeff Passan at Yahoo Sports and repeated at MLB Trade Rumors.

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FanSided

Turns out that the former “agent”, Rudy Santin, was not actually an agent certified by the MLB in the first place.  Nonetheless, he represented Dian Toscano to the Braves, which was one reason the Braves were thought to be a leading candidate to land Olivera.

What is not known at this time is whether Santin was fired for…

• Not being a certified agent;
• Stupidly blurting out numbers in a (likely failed) attempt to re-shape the market; or
• Working to bring Olivera to a team that he might not actually prefer (Atlanta)

I actually tend to doubt that third bullet point.  The fact is, until this morning, we had heard precious little in terms of “market” for Olivera.  Though he was connected to the Braves, there was essentially no news/rumors/hints about any other contract-related contacts from any other teams.

I could speculate that Santin was perhaps driving away bidders with the “$70 million” line, and then effectively asking the Braves to bid against themselves when that tactic fell flat on its face… at a much lower dollar level.  That would make some sense, given the events of today.

New Ballgame

If bids are indeed coming in, then it’s now more a matter of who is willing to spent what amount – the new agent is not likely to artificially reject anything that comes in below a fantasy figure.  The adults are in charge now.

Does this help or hurt Atlanta’s chances of getting the player?  I do think it hurts their chances.  Here’s my best guess on the breakdown, which is my opinion drawn partly from the prior works from others.

• Atlanta does not wish to overpay… they might come up a little if push comes to shove, but they aren’t going for the big dollar deal.  What is interesting to me is that there seems to be a camp in the Braves’ front office questioning just how well Olivera’s game will translate to the majors.  That’s literally the first I’ve heard of such a notion from anywhere.
• San Diego is supposedly running thin on coin, and thus while they really want Olivera, they would probably have to break their own bank to get him.
• The Dodgers can – at any point – opt to swoop in for the kill.  It’s reasonable to think that they may have been the ones to call Santin’s bluff – thereby getting him fired.
• The Giants probably have a need just about as great as any of the above, but have been quiet thus far.  I do expect they are lurking about in the shadows somewhere.

All of this probably has delayed Olivera’s signing by a day or two… but I expect it will be all sorted by Friday, and maybe as soon as tomorrow.  It’s in the player’s interest to do so, and nothing will change by stalling any further.

So who gets him?  I expect Los Angeles, with Atlanta as the runner-up.