Atlanta Braves Trade Kimbrel: How Does This Impact 2015?

Eric Young Jr. (4) blows a bubble while on deck to bat during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Center Field

This is more interesting, and largely depends on your views of Melvin vs. Eric Young – and/or Cameron Maybin for 2015.

EYJr. has had some decent work at the plate in the past, though 2012’s .316 took place in Denver’s rarified air.  Aside from that, he’s been a .250 hitter in the majors… except .229 outside of Colorado in a Mets’ uniform.

This Spring suggested a possible uptick for 2015:  .321 with 8 walks and 7 steals while in Florida.  Sustainable?  Likely not, though that was over 78 ABs.

Frankly, anything over .250 is probably “gravy” for the Braves, who had to settle for .184 and .208 in 2013-14 with a total of 21 home runs in both years.  Young has little power, though is much more like a lead-off hitter… if he can keep the OBP up.

Cameron Maybin, who turned 28 on Saturday, profiles as a very close comparison to Eric Young:  .246 career hitting, .309 OBP, 7.5% BB rate with a tick higher K rate at 22.8%.  His speed has only been exhibited in 2011-12:  40 and 26 steals.  Never more than 10 otherwise.  He had a little more pop in his bat than Young, with 32 career homers.  2011-12 were his best years – easily – thus far.  He hit .302/.351 in 53 Spring ABs.

As a switch-hitter, Young is generally slightly better vs. lefties, but that’s marginal, and has changed over time.  Maybin is equally mediocre vs. all arms.

But if you assume no improvement for Upton in 2015, either player could easily hit 50 points better, and – more importantly – this trade now prevents Fredi Gonzalez from being compelled to run Upton out to Center Field for any reason in 2015.

Defensively, the numbers are close:

• Upton grades as an average CF
• Maybin grades slightly above average
• Young has no real CF grade; slightly better than average in LF
• All that said, the “eye test” seem to suggest improved OF defense from either new player over Upton, who seemed to lose concentration from time to time.

Add ‘Em Up

Upton’s 2013-14 adds to -0.3 fWAR – despite his home runs.  Young adds up to 2.1 fWAR in 2013-14 with 248 games played.  Maybin is hard to score wince had was out for a great deal of 2013, but managed 0.3 fWAR in 95 games of 2014.

I believe we can argue that the floor of either Young or Maybin is roughly what Upton’s ceiling would be.  Overall, I think we can expect roughly a 1.0 fWAR improvement.  Not much, but something – especially if Young can continue to get on base and advance as he did during the Spring.  If that happens, a 2.0 fWAR improvement is not out of the question.

Taking this literally, that’s 1-2 additional wins due to improved CF offense.

Maybin’s presence might serve to help the bench – maybe limiting Jonny Gomes‘ ABs if he continues to not hit, but it remains to be seen how Fredi Gonzalez chooses to use each player.